Climate change vulnerability assessments

The boundaries and names shown, and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations or IUCN

Name

Tiwai Island Sanctuary

  • WDPA ID

    10741

  • Country

    SLE

  • IUCN category

    IV

Tiwai Island Sanctuary is among the top 75 protected areas assessed as being the most vulnerable to climate change by 2025 (with a 95% uncertainty level)

Species vulnerable to climate change

According to Traits-based Vulnerability Assessments (TVAs)

Vulnerable Species Total Species
Amphibian
0
37
Bird
85
353
Mammal
8
119
Total
93
509

18 % of bird, amphibian, and mammal species assessed are considered vulnerable to climate change

Expected species turnover

According to Species Distribution Models (SDMs)

Percentage of species turnover: Median (95% Confidence Interval)

by 2010-2039 by 2040-2069
Bird
  • 19.5%
  • 24.6%
  • 37.5%
  • 30.9%
  • 38.6%
  • 46.2%
Mammal
  • 20.8%
  • 26.9%
  • 39.8%
  • 29.7%
  • 37.6%
  • 47.1%
Amphibian
  • 23.9%
  • 38.5%
  • 53.6%
  • 32.3%
  • 52.1%
  • 79.8%

Vulnerable species

Name Order Exposure

by 2010-2039   by 2040-2069

IUCN Red List category Sensitivity

to climate change

Adaptability

to climate change

Caprimulgus europaeus Caprimulgiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Low reproductive capacity
Lybius vieilloti Piciformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Tringa totanus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Apus apus Apodiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Circus macrourus Falconiformes
NT
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Accipiter erythropus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Lymnocryptes minimus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Extrinsic barriers to dispersal
Tringa erythropus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Extrinsic barriers to dispersal
Circus aeruginosus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Elminia longicauda Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Cuculus canorus Cuculiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Nectarinia chloropygia Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Pernis apivorus Falconiformes
LC
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Psalidoprocne nitens Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Tauraco persa Cuculiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Elminia nigromitrata Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Bubo poensis Strigiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Bycanistes fistulator Coraciiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Pogoniulus subsulphureus Piciformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Pteronetta hartlaubii Anseriformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Tricholaema hirsuta Piciformes
LC
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Campethera nivosa Piciformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Declining positive interactions with other species
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Cossypha cyanocampter Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Nicator chloris Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Prodotiscus insignis Piciformes
LC
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Trochocercus nitens Passeriformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Andropadus gracilis Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Low reproductive capacity
Oriolus brachyrhynchus Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Stiphrornis erythrothorax Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Andropadus latirostris Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Baeopogon indicator Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Chlorocichla simplex Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Pogoniulus scolopaceus Piciformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Turtur brehmeri Columbiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Urotriorchis macrourus Falconiformes
LC
  • Habitat specialisation
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Bycanistes cylindricus Coraciiformes
VU
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Gymnobucco calvus Piciformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Pogoniulus bilineatus Piciformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Sylvietta virens Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Sarothrura pulchra Gruiformes
LC
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Smithornis rufolateralis Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Camaroptera chloronota Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Centropus leucogaster Cuculiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Columba iriditorques Columbiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Criniger calurus Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Nectarinia verticalis Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Pogoniulus atroflavus Piciformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Bleda eximius Passeriformes
NT
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Low reproductive capacity
Phyllastrephus icterinus Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Scotopelia ussheri Strigiformes
VU
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Merops gularis Coraciiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Nectarinia superba Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Fraseria cinerascens Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Muscicapa epulata Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Muscicapa olivascens Passeriformes
LC
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Low reproductive capacity
Bubo leucostictus Strigiformes
LC
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Phyllastrephus albigularis Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Platysteira castanea Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Bias musicus Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Dryotriorchis spectabilis Falconiformes
LC
  • Habitat specialisation
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Myioparus griseigularis Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Tauraco macrorhynchus Cuculiformes
LC
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Pholidornis rushiae Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Anthreptes rectirostris Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Canirallus oculeus Gruiformes
LC
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Ceratogymna atrata Coraciiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Glareola nuchalis Charadriiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Illadopsis fulvescens Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Muscicapa comitata Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Nectarinia johannae Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Sylvietta denti Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Nectarinia seimundi Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Thescelocichla leucopleura Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Columba unicincta Columbiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Corythaeola cristata Cuculiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Nectarinia cyanolaema Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Bleda syndactylus Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Buccanodon duchaillui Piciformes
LC
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Gymnobucco peli Piciformes
LC
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Stizorhina fraseri Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Dicrurus atripennis Passeriformes
LC
  • Habitat specialisation
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Illadopsis rufipennis Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Sheppardia cyornithopsis Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Bostrychia olivacea Ciconiiformes
LC
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Slow turnover of generations
Lamprotornis splendidus Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity

The full description of the methodology used for this assessment can be downloaded here: Traits-based Vulnerability Assessments

Expected changes in climate suitability

Name By 2010-2039 By 2040-2069
Rhinopomastus aterrimus
INC
INC
Torgos tracheliotos
INC
INC
Falco alopex
INC
INC
Bucorvus abyssinicus
INC
INC
Glareola cinerea
INC
INC
Struthio camelus
INC
INC
Psalidoprocne nitens
NO CHANGE
DEC
Telacanthura ussheri
INC
INC
Elminia nigromitrata
DEC
DEC
Bubo poensis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Bycanistes fistulator
NO CHANGE
DEC
Pogoniulus subsulphureus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Tricholaema hirsuta
DEC
DEC
Campethera nivosa
DEC
DEC
Cossypha cyanocampter
DEC
DEC
Nicator chloris
NO CHANGE
DEC
Prodotiscus insignis
DEC
DEC
Trochocercus nitens
DEC
DEC
Andropadus gracilis
DEC
DEC
Bostrychia rara
INC
NO CHANGE
Oriolus brachyrhynchus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Stiphrornis erythrothorax
DEC
DEC
Andropadus latirostris
DEC
DEC
Baeopogon indicator
NO CHANGE
DEC
Chlorocichla simplex
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Pogoniulus scolopaceus
DEC
DEC
Turtur brehmeri
DEC
DEC
Urotriorchis macrourus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Gymnobucco calvus
DEC
DEC
Pogoniulus bilineatus
DEC
DEC
Sylvietta virens
DEC
DEC
Sarothrura pulchra
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Smithornis rufolateralis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Columba iriditorques
NO CHANGE
DEC
Criniger calurus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Nectarinia verticalis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Pogoniulus atroflavus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Phyllastrephus icterinus
DEC
DEC
Merops gularis
DEC
DEC
Nectarinia superba
DEC
DEC
Fraseria cinerascens
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Muscicapa olivascens
DEC
DEC
Bubo leucostictus
DEC
DEC
Neafrapus cassini
INC
NO CHANGE
Phyllastrephus albigularis
DEC
DEC
Platysteira castanea
DEC
DEC
Bias musicus
DEC
DEC
Dryotriorchis spectabilis
DEC
DEC
Muscicapa cassini
INC
INC
Myioparus griseigularis
DEC
DEC
Tauraco macrorhynchus
DEC
DEC
Pholidornis rushiae
NO CHANGE
DEC
Andropadus ansorgei
DEC
DEC
Anthreptes rectirostris
DEC
DEC
Canirallus oculeus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Ceratogymna atrata
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Glareola nuchalis
DEC
DEC
Illadopsis fulvescens
NO CHANGE
DEC
Muscicapa comitata
NO CHANGE
DEC
Nectarinia johannae
NO CHANGE
DEC
Nectarinia seimundi
DEC
DEC
Thescelocichla leucopleura
NO CHANGE
DEC
Corythaeola cristata
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia cyanolaema
DEC
DEC
Bleda syndactylus
DEC
DEC
Buccanodon duchaillui
NO CHANGE
DEC
Gymnobucco peli
DEC
DEC
Ixonotus guttatus
INC
INC
Dicrurus atripennis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Nectarinia batesi
INC
NO CHANGE
Platysteira concreta
INC
NO CHANGE
Illadopsis rufipennis
DEC
DEC
Sheppardia cyornithopsis
DEC
DEC
Bubo shelleyi
NO CHANGE
DEC
Nectarinia reichenbachii
INC
NO CHANGE
Corvus ruficollis
INC
INC
Tachymarptis aequatorialis
INC
INC
Apalis rufogularis
INC
INC
Scotopelia bouvieri
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia rubescens
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Gyps rueppellii
INC
INC
Tockus nasutus
INC
INC
Francolinus lathami
DEC
DEC
Uromanis tetradactyla
NO CHANGE
DEC
Lybius bidentatus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Tockus erythrorhynchus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Accipiter melanoleucus
DEC
DEC
Accipiter ovampensis
INC
INC
Acrocephalus rufescens
INC
INC
Aenigmatolimnas marginalis
INC
INC
Agapornis pullarius
INC
NO CHANGE
Alcedo quadribrachys
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Alethe poliocephala
DEC
DEC
Alopochen aegyptiaca
INC
INC
Amadina fasciata
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Amblyospiza albifrons
INC
INC
Anaplectes rubriceps
INC
INC
Anas hottentota
NO CHANGE
INC
Anas sparsa
INC
INC
Andropadus curvirostris
NO CHANGE
DEC
Andropadus gracilirostris
DEC
DEC
Andropadus virens
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Anthoscopus flavifrons
INC
NO CHANGE
Anthoscopus parvulus
INC
NO CHANGE
Anthreptes collaris
DEC
DEC
Anthreptes fraseri
DEC
DEC
Anthreptes gabonicus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Anthreptes longuemarei
INC
INC
Anthus similis
INC
INC
Apalis flavida
INC
INC
Aplopelia larvata
DEC
DEC
Apus caffer
INC
INC
Aquila africanus
INC
INC
Aquila rapax
INC
INC
Ardea melanocephala
NO CHANGE
DEC
Asio capensis
INC
INC
Aviceda cuculoides
DEC
DEC
Balaeniceps rex
NO CHANGE
INC
Balearica pavonina
INC
INC
Batis senegalensis
INC
NO CHANGE
Bradornis pallidus
INC
INC
Buphagus africanus
INC
NO CHANGE
Burhinus senegalensis
INC
INC
Burhinus vermiculatus
INC
INC
Butastur rufipennis
INC
INC
Bycanistes subcylindricus
INC
INC
Calyptocichla serina
DEC
DEC
Camaroptera brachyura
DEC
DEC
Camaroptera superciliaris
NO CHANGE
DEC
Campephaga phoenicea
INC
INC
Campephaga quiscalina
NO CHANGE
DEC
Campethera abingoni
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Campethera caroli
DEC
DEC
Campethera punctuligera
INC
NO CHANGE
Caprimulgus natalensis
INC
INC
Caprimulgus nigriscapularis
DEC
DEC
Caprimulgus tristigma
INC
NO CHANGE
Centropus grillii
INC
INC
Centropus monachus
INC
INC
Ceratogymna elata
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Cercococcyx mechowi
INC
INC
Ceyx lecontei
DEC
DEC
Charadrius pecuarius
INC
INC
Chlorocichla flavicollis
INC
INC
Chrysococcyx cupreus
DEC
DEC
Chrysococcyx flavigularis
INC
NO CHANGE
Ciconia abdimii
INC
INC
Cinnyricinclus leucogaster
INC
INC
Circaetus cinerascens
INC
INC
Cisticola aberrans
INC
INC
Cisticola anonymus
DEC
DEC
Cisticola aridulus
INC
INC
Cisticola brachypterus
DEC
NO CHANGE
Cisticola cantans
INC
INC
Cisticola erythrops
DEC
DEC
Cisticola eximius
INC
INC
Cisticola lateralis
DEC
DEC
Cisticola natalensis
INC
INC
Cisticola ruficeps
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Cisticola rufus
INC
INC
Clamator jacobinus
INC
INC
Clamator levaillantii
INC
INC
Columba guinea
INC
INC
Coracias cyanogaster
INC
NO CHANGE
Coracias naevia
INC
INC
Coracina azurea
DEC
DEC
Coracina pectoralis
INC
INC
Corvinella corvina
INC
INC
Corvus rhipidurus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Cossypha albicapilla
INC
INC
Cossypha natalensis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Cossypha niveicapilla
DEC
NO CHANGE
Cossypha polioptera
INC
NO CHANGE
Coturnix delegorguei
INC
INC
Crecopsis egregia
DEC
DEC
Criniger barbatus
DEC
DEC
Cuculus clamosus
DEC
DEC
Cuculus gularis
INC
INC
Cuculus solitarius
DEC
DEC
Cursorius temminckii
INC
INC
Dendrocopos obsoletus
INC
INC
Dendropicos fuscescens
NO CHANGE
DEC
Dendropicos gabonensis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Drymocichla incana
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Dryoscopus sabini
DEC
DEC
Emberiza affinis
INC
INC
Emberiza cabanisi
INC
INC
Emberiza flaviventris
INC
INC
Emberiza tahapisi
INC
INC
Ephippiorhynchus senegalensis
INC
INC
Eremomela badiceps
DEC
DEC
Eremomela icteropygialis
INC
INC
Eremomela pusilla
INC
NO CHANGE
Eremopterix leucotis
INC
INC
Erythrocercus mccallii
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Erythropygia galactotes
INC
INC
Erythropygia leucosticta
DEC
DEC
Estrilda caerulescens
INC
NO CHANGE
Estrilda troglodytes
INC
INC
Euplectes ardens
INC
INC
Euplectes franciscanus
INC
INC
Euplectes macroura
INC
INC
Eupodotis melanogaster
INC
INC
Eurystomus gularis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Euschistospiza dybowskii
INC
NO CHANGE
Falco ardosiaceus
INC
INC
Falco biarmicus
INC
INC
Falco chicquera
INC
INC
Francolinus clappertoni
NO CHANGE
INC
Francolinus coqui
INC
INC
Francolinus squamatus
NO CHANGE
INC
Fraseria ocreata
NO CHANGE
DEC
Galerida modesta
INC
INC
Glaucidium perlatum
INC
INC
Gypohierax angolensis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Gyps africanus
INC
INC
Halcyon badia
DEC
DEC
Halcyon chelicuti
INC
INC
Halcyon malimbica
DEC
DEC
Haliaeetus vocifer
INC
INC
Heliolais erythropterus
INC
INC
Hieraaetus ayresii
INC
INC
Hieraaetus spilogaster
INC
INC
Hirundo aethiopica
INC
INC
Hirundo fuligula
INC
INC
Hirundo leucosoma
INC
INC
Hirundo lucida
INC
INC
Hirundo nigrita
NO CHANGE
DEC
Hirundo preussi
INC
INC
Hirundo senegalensis
INC
INC
Hyliota flavigaster
INC
INC
Hyliota violacea
DEC
DEC
Illadopsis puveli
DEC
DEC
Indicator exilis
INC
INC
Indicator indicator
INC
INC
Indicator maculatus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Indicator minor
DEC
DEC
Indicator willcocksi
DEC
DEC
Jubula lettii
INC
NO CHANGE
Lagonosticta larvata
INC
INC
Lagonosticta rara
INC
NO CHANGE
Lagonosticta rhodopareia
INC
INC
Lagonosticta rubricata
NO CHANGE
DEC
Lagonosticta senegala
INC
INC
Lamprotornis chalcurus
NO CHANGE
INC
Lamprotornis chloropterus
INC
NO CHANGE
Lamprotornis purpureus
NO CHANGE
INC
Laniarius aethiopicus
INC
INC
Laniarius leucorhynchus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Lanius collaris
DEC
DEC
Leptoptilos crumeniferus
INC
INC
Lonchura cantans
INC
INC
Lophaetus occipitalis
INC
INC
Macheiramphus alcinus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Macrodipteryx longipennis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Macrosphenus concolor
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Macrosphenus kempi
NO CHANGE
DEC
Malaconotus blanchoti
INC
INC
Malaconotus cruentus
DEC
DEC
Malimbus malimbicus
DEC
DEC
Malimbus nitens
DEC
DEC
Malimbus scutatus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Mandingoa nitidula
DEC
DEC
Megabyas flammulatus
DEC
DEC
Melaenornis edolioides
INC
NO CHANGE
Melichneutes robustus
INC
INC
Melierax gabar
INC
INC
Merops bulocki
INC
INC
Merops hirundineus
INC
INC
Merops mentalis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Merops nubicus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Microparra capensis
INC
INC
Mirafra africana
INC
INC
Mirafra cantillans
INC
INC
Mirafra rufocinnamomea
INC
INC
Motacilla aguimp
DEC
DEC
Motacilla clara
INC
INC
Muscicapa aquatica
INC
NO CHANGE
Muscicapa gambagae
INC
INC
Musophaga violacea
INC
NO CHANGE
Myioparus plumbeus
DEC
DEC
Myrmecocichla albifrons
INC
NO CHANGE
Myrmecocichla nigra
INC
INC
Necrosyrtes monachus
INC
INC
Nectarinia adelberti
NO CHANGE
DEC
Nectarinia coccinigaster
NO CHANGE
DEC
Nectarinia pulchella
INC
INC
Nectarinia senegalensis
INC
INC
Nigrita canicapillus
DEC
DEC
Nigrita luteifrons
INC
NO CHANGE
Nilaus afer
INC
INC
Numida meleagris
INC
INC
Oena capensis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Oenanthe heuglini
INC
INC
Onychognathus fulgidus
DEC
DEC
Onychognathus morio
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Oriolus auratus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Oriolus nigripennis
DEC
DEC
Ortygospiza atricollis
INC
INC
Otus icterorhynchus
INC
NO CHANGE
Otus leucotis
INC
INC
Otus senegalensis
INC
INC
Parus funereus
INC
NO CHANGE
Passer griseus
INC
INC
Petronia dentata
INC
INC
Petronia pyrgita
INC
INC
Phoeniculus purpureus
INC
INC
Phyllanthus atripennis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Pinarocorys erythropygia
INC
INC
Pitta angolensis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Platysteira blissetti
NO CHANGE
DEC
Plectropterus gambensis
DEC
DEC
Plegadis falcinellus
INC
INC
Plocepasser superciliosus
NO CHANGE
INC
Ploceus albinucha
DEC
DEC
Ploceus melanocephalus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Ploceus nigerrimus
DEC
DEC
Ploceus superciliosus
INC
INC
Ploceus tricolor
DEC
DEC
Pluvianus aegyptius
INC
INC
Poeoptera lugubris
DEC
DEC
Pogoniulus chrysoconus
INC
INC
Poicephalus robustus
INC
INC
Poicephalus senegalus
INC
NO CHANGE
Polemaetus bellicosus
INC
INC
Prinia subflava
NO CHANGE
DEC
Prionops plumatus
INC
INC
Psalidoprocne pristoptera
NO CHANGE
INC
Pterocles lichtensteinii
NO CHANGE
INC
Pterocles quadricinctus
INC
INC
Ptilopachus petrosus
INC
NO CHANGE
Ptilostomus afer
INC
NO CHANGE
Pyrrhurus scandens
INC
INC
Pytilia melba
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Pytilia phoenicoptera
INC
INC
Rallus caerulescens
INC
INC
Rhaphidura sabini
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Rhinoptilus chalcopterus
INC
INC
Sagittarius serpentarius
INC
INC
Sarothrura elegans
INC
INC
Sarothrura rufa
INC
INC
Schoenicola brevirostris
INC
INC
Scotopelia peli
INC
INC
Serinus gularis
INC
INC
Serinus leucopygius
INC
INC
Serinus mozambicus
INC
INC
Smithornis capensis
INC
INC
Streptopelia decipiens
INC
INC
Streptopelia semitorquata
NO CHANGE
DEC
Streptopelia vinacea
INC
INC
Sylvietta brachyura
INC
INC
Tchagra australis
DEC
DEC
Tchagra minutus
INC
INC
Telophorus multicolor
DEC
DEC
Telophorus sulfureopectus
INC
INC
Terathopius ecaudatus
INC
INC
Thalassornis leuconotus
INC
INC
Thamnolaea cinnamomeiventris
NO CHANGE
INC
Thripias pyrrhogaster
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Tockus fasciatus
DEC
DEC
Tockus hartlaubi
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Trachyphonus purpuratus
DEC
DEC
Treron calvus
DEC
DEC
Treron waalia
NO CHANGE
INC
Trigonoceps occipitalis
INC
INC
Tropicranus albocristatus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Turdoides plebejus
INC
NO CHANGE
Turnix hottentottus
INC
INC
Turtur abyssinicus
INC
INC
Turtur tympanistria
DEC
DEC
Uraeginthus bengalus
INC
INC
Vanellus lugubris
INC
INC
Vanellus senegallus
INC
INC
Vanellus spinosus
INC
INC
Vanellus tectus
INC
INC
Vidua camerunensis
INC
INC
Vidua chalybeata
INC
INC
Vidua larvaticola
INC
INC
Vidua paradisaea
INC
INC
Vidua wilsoni
INC
NO CHANGE

The full description of the methodology used for this assessment can be downloaded here: Species Distribution Model