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Climate change vulnerability assessments

The boundaries and names shown, and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations or IUCN

Name

River Gambia

WDPA ID
2288
Country
GMB
IUCN category
II

Species vulnerable to climate change

According to Traits-based Vulnerability Assessments (TVAs)

	Vulnerable Species	Total Species
Amphibian	4	24
Bird	40	374
Mammal	4	90
Total	48	488

9 % of bird, amphibian, and mammal species assessed are considered vulnerable to climate change

Expected species turnover

According to Species Distribution Models (SDMs)

Percentage of species turnover: Median (95% Confidence Interval)

	by 2010-2039	by 2040-2069
Bird	14.5% 20.4% 28.0%	25.1% 37.7% 55.5%
Mammal	17.9% 25.1% 37.7%	27.4% 48.7% 69.0%
Amphibian	18.3% 29.2% 45.8%	27.5% 46.2% 67.5%

Vulnerable species

Name	Order	IUCN Red List category	Sensitivity to climate change	Adaptability to climate change
Caprimulgus europaeus	Caprimulgiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Low reproductive capacity
Falco peregrinus	Falconiformes	LC	Microhabitat specialisation Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Low genetic diversity Slow turnover of generations
Himantopus himantopus	Charadriiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations
Lybius vieilloti	Piciformes	LC	Microhabitat specialisation Small population size Small effective population size	Low intrinsic dispersal capacity Slow turnover of generations
Pelecanus onocrotalus	Pelecaniformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations Low reproductive capacity
Tringa totanus	Charadriiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations
Anas crecca	Anseriformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations
Chelictinia riocourii	Falconiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes Small population size Small effective population size	Slow turnover of generations
Numenius arquata	Charadriiformes	NT	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations
Rhinopomastus aterrimus	Coraciiformes	LC	Microhabitat specialisation Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes Low Tolerance to temperature changes Small population size Small effective population size	Slow turnover of generations Low reproductive capacity
Torgos tracheliotos	Falconiformes	VU	Low Tolerance to temperature changes Small population size Small effective population size	Slow turnover of generations Low reproductive capacity
Apus apus	Apodiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations
Circus macrourus	Falconiformes	NT	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations
Falco alopex	Falconiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes Low Tolerance to temperature changes Small population size Small effective population size	Slow turnover of generations
Falco subbuteo	Falconiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations
Anas acuta	Anseriformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations
Apus pallidus	Apodiformes	LC	Microhabitat specialisation	Slow turnover of generations
Bucorvus abyssinicus	Coraciiformes	LC	Microhabitat specialisation Small population size Small effective population size	Low intrinsic dispersal capacity Slow turnover of generations Low reproductive capacity
Accipiter erythropus	Falconiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes Small effective population size	Slow turnover of generations Low reproductive capacity
Ciconia ciconia	Ciconiiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations
Circus pygargus	Falconiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations
Hieraaetus pennatus	Falconiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations Low reproductive capacity
Lymnocryptes minimus	Charadriiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Extrinsic barriers to dispersal
Tringa erythropus	Charadriiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Extrinsic barriers to dispersal
Circaetus beaudouini	Falconiformes	VU	Small population size Small effective population size	Slow turnover of generations Low reproductive capacity
Circus aeruginosus	Falconiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations
Elminia longicauda	Passeriformes	LC	Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes Small population size Small effective population size	Low reproductive capacity
Aythya nyroca	Anseriformes	NT	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations
Streptopelia turtur	Columbiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Low reproductive capacity
Recurvirostra avosetta	Charadriiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations
Streptopelia roseogrisea	Columbiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes Small population size Small effective population size	Low reproductive capacity
Gyps fulvus	Falconiformes	LC	Microhabitat specialisation Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations Low reproductive capacity
Pernis apivorus	Falconiformes	LC	Intolerance of disturbance Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations Low reproductive capacity
Telacanthura ussheri	Apodiformes	LC	Microhabitat specialisation Small population size Small effective population size	Slow turnover of generations
Tauraco persa	Cuculiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes Small population size Small effective population size	Low reproductive capacity
Campethera nivosa	Piciformes	LC	Microhabitat specialisation Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes Declining positive interactions with other species Small population size Small effective population size	Low reproductive capacity
Camaroptera chloronota	Passeriformes	LC	Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes Small population size Small effective population size	Low reproductive capacity
Aythya ferina	Anseriformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations
Lamprotornis splendidus	Passeriformes	LC	Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes Small population size Small effective population size	Low reproductive capacity
Larus genei	Charadriiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations

The full description of the methodology used for this assessment can be downloaded here: Traits-based Vulnerability Assessments

Expected changes in climate suitability

Name	By 2010-2039	By 2040-2069
Lybius vieilloti	DEC	DEC
Rhinopomastus aterrimus	DEC	DEC
Falco alopex	DEC	DEC
Ortyxelos meiffrenii	INC	INC
Bucorvus abyssinicus	NO CHANGE	DEC
Glareola cinerea	INC	NO CHANGE
Circaetus beaudouini	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Struthio camelus	INC	INC
Ardeotis arabs	INC	INC
Nectarinia chloropygia	INC	INC
Glareola nuchalis	INC	NO CHANGE
Corvus ruficollis	INC	INC
Cursorius cursor	INC	NO CHANGE
Turdoides fulva	INC	NO CHANGE
Gyps rueppellii	DEC	DEC
Tockus nasutus	DEC	DEC
Lybius dubius	NO CHANGE	DEC
Tockus erythrorhynchus	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Accipiter melanoleucus	INC	INC
Accipiter ovampensis	NO CHANGE	DEC
Actophilornis africanus	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Alaemon alaudipes	INC	INC
Amaurornis flavirostra	DEC	DEC
Ammomanes deserti	INC	INC
Anas hottentota	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Anas sparsa	INC	NO CHANGE
Anastomus lamelligerus	INC	NO CHANGE
Anthoscopus parvulus	DEC	DEC
Anthoscopus punctifrons	INC	INC
Anthreptes platurus	DEC	DEC
Anthus leucophrys	NO CHANGE	DEC
Anthus similis	INC	INC
Apus caffer	DEC	DEC
Aquila rapax	NO CHANGE	DEC
Aquila wahlbergi	INC	NO CHANGE
Ardea melanocephala	DEC	DEC
Asio capensis	INC	INC
Aviceda cuculoides	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Balearica pavonina	NO CHANGE	DEC
Batis senegalensis	DEC	DEC
Bubo africanus	DEC	DEC
Burhinus senegalensis	NO CHANGE	DEC
Butastur rufipennis	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Buteo auguralis	INC	NO CHANGE
Camaroptera brachyura	NO CHANGE	DEC
Campephaga phoenicea	NO CHANGE	DEC
Campethera maculosa	INC	INC
Campethera punctuligera	NO CHANGE	DEC
Caprimulgus climacurus	DEC	DEC
Caprimulgus inornatus	INC	INC
Centropus senegalensis	NO CHANGE	DEC
Cercotrichas podobe	INC	NO CHANGE
Charadrius forbesi	DEC	DEC
Charadrius marginatus	INC	NO CHANGE
Charadrius pecuarius	DEC	DEC
Chlorocichla flavicollis	NO CHANGE	DEC
Chrysococcyx caprius	NO CHANGE	DEC
Chrysococcyx cupreus	INC	INC
Chrysococcyx klaas	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Ciconia abdimii	DEC	DEC
Cinnyricinclus leucogaster	DEC	DEC
Circaetus cinerascens	DEC	DEC
Circaetus cinereus	NO CHANGE	DEC
Cisticola aberrans	INC	NO CHANGE
Cisticola aridulus	INC	INC
Cisticola cantans	NO CHANGE	DEC
Clamator glandarius	DEC	DEC
Clamator jacobinus	DEC	DEC
Clamator levaillantii	NO CHANGE	DEC
Columba guinea	DEC	DEC
Coracias abyssinicus	DEC	DEC
Coracias cyanogaster	NO CHANGE	DEC
Coracias naevia	DEC	DEC
Coracina pectoralis	NO CHANGE	DEC
Corvinella corvina	NO CHANGE	DEC
Corvus albus	NO CHANGE	DEC
Corvus rhipidurus	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Cossypha albicapilla	DEC	DEC
Cossypha niveicapilla	DEC	DEC
Coturnix delegorguei	INC	NO CHANGE
Crecopsis egregia	DEC	DEC
Cuculus clamosus	DEC	DEC
Cuculus solitarius	NO CHANGE	DEC
Cypsiurus parvus	DEC	DEC
Dendrocopos obsoletus	DEC	DEC
Dicrurus ludwigii	NO CHANGE	DEC
Dryoscopus gambensis	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Emberiza flaviventris	INC	INC
Emberiza striolata	INC	INC
Emberiza tahapisi	DEC	DEC
Eremomela icteropygialis	INC	INC
Eremomela pusilla	NO CHANGE	DEC
Eremopterix leucotis	NO CHANGE	DEC
Eremopterix nigriceps	INC	INC
Erythropygia galactotes	INC	INC
Estrilda caerulescens	DEC	DEC
Estrilda troglodytes	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Euplectes ardens	INC	NO CHANGE
Euplectes franciscanus	DEC	DEC
Eupodotis melanogaster	NO CHANGE	DEC
Eupodotis senegalensis	DEC	DEC
Eurystomus glaucurus	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Falco ardosiaceus	DEC	DEC
Falco biarmicus	NO CHANGE	DEC
Falco chicquera	DEC	DEC
Falco cuvierii	DEC	DEC
Francolinus bicalcaratus	NO CHANGE	DEC
Francolinus coqui	INC	NO CHANGE
Glaucidium perlatum	NO CHANGE	DEC
Gypohierax angolensis	NO CHANGE	DEC
Gyps africanus	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Halcyon chelicuti	NO CHANGE	DEC
Halcyon malimbica	NO CHANGE	DEC
Halcyon senegalensis	NO CHANGE	DEC
Haliaeetus vocifer	DEC	DEC
Heliolais erythropterus	DEC	DEC
Hieraaetus ayresii	INC	NO CHANGE
Hieraaetus spilogaster	NO CHANGE	DEC
Hirundo abyssinica	INC	NO CHANGE
Hirundo aethiopica	INC	NO CHANGE
Hirundo fuligula	INC	INC
Hirundo leucosoma	DEC	DEC
Hirundo senegalensis	NO CHANGE	DEC
Hyliota flavigaster	DEC	DEC
Hypergerus atriceps	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Indicator indicator	DEC	DEC
Indicator maculatus	DEC	DEC
Indicator minor	NO CHANGE	DEC
Lagonosticta rufopicta	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Lagonosticta senegala	DEC	DEC
Lamprotornis caudatus	NO CHANGE	DEC
Lamprotornis chalcurus	DEC	DEC
Lamprotornis chalybaeus	NO CHANGE	DEC
Lamprotornis chloropterus	DEC	DEC
Lamprotornis purpureus	NO CHANGE	DEC
Laniarius aethiopicus	INC	NO CHANGE
Laniarius barbarus	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Leptoptilos crumeniferus	INC	NO CHANGE
Lonchura cantans	DEC	DEC
Lonchura cucullata	DEC	DEC
Lonchura fringilloides	INC	INC
Macrodipteryx longipennis	DEC	DEC
Malaconotus blanchoti	NO CHANGE	DEC
Melaenornis edolioides	NO CHANGE	DEC
Melierax gabar	NO CHANGE	DEC
Melierax metabates	DEC	DEC
Merops bulocki	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Merops hirundineus	DEC	DEC
Merops nubicus	DEC	DEC
Merops pusillus	DEC	DEC
Mesopicos goertae	DEC	DEC
Microparra capensis	INC	NO CHANGE
Mirafra cantillans	INC	INC
Mirafra cordofanica	INC	NO CHANGE
Muscicapa aquatica	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Muscicapa gambagae	INC	NO CHANGE
Mycteria ibis	NO CHANGE	DEC
Myioparus plumbeus	DEC	DEC
Myrmecocichla albifrons	DEC	DEC
Necrosyrtes monachus	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Nectarinia coccinigaster	INC	NO CHANGE
Nectarinia cuprea	INC	INC
Nectarinia pulchella	DEC	DEC
Nectarinia senegalensis	NO CHANGE	DEC
Neotis denhami	INC	NO CHANGE
Nilaus afer	DEC	DEC
Numida meleagris	DEC	NO CHANGE
Oenanthe heuglini	INC	INC
Onychognathus morio	INC	INC
Oriolus auratus	DEC	DEC
Otus leucotis	DEC	DEC
Otus senegalensis	NO CHANGE	DEC
Passer griseus	DEC	DEC
Passer luteus	INC	NO CHANGE
Pelecanus rufescens	DEC	DEC
Petronia dentata	NO CHANGE	DEC
Petronia pyrgita	INC	INC
Phoeniculus purpureus	NO CHANGE	DEC
Platalea alba	NO CHANGE	DEC
Platysteira cyanea	NO CHANGE	DEC
Plectropterus gambensis	NO CHANGE	DEC
Plegadis falcinellus	DEC	DEC
Plocepasser superciliosus	DEC	DEC
Ploceus heuglini	NO CHANGE	DEC
Ploceus luteolus	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Ploceus vitellinus	DEC	DEC
Pluvianus aegyptius	NO CHANGE	DEC
Pogoniulus chrysoconus	DEC	DEC
Poicephalus senegalus	NO CHANGE	DEC
Polemaetus bellicosus	DEC	DEC
Prinia subflava	DEC	DEC
Prionops plumatus	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Psalidoprocne obscura	INC	NO CHANGE
Pterocles lichtensteinii	INC	INC
Pterocles quadricinctus	DEC	DEC
Ptilopachus petrosus	DEC	DEC
Ptilostomus afer	NO CHANGE	DEC
Pytilia phoenicoptera	NO CHANGE	DEC
Sagittarius serpentarius	INC	INC
Spiloptila clamans	INC	NO CHANGE
Stephanoaetus coronatus	INC	INC
Streptopelia decipiens	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Streptopelia semitorquata	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Streptopelia vinacea	NO CHANGE	DEC
Sylvietta brachyura	NO CHANGE	DEC
Tchagra senegalus	DEC	DEC
Telophorus sulfureopectus	DEC	DEC
Terathopius ecaudatus	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Thalassornis leuconotus	INC	INC
Threskiornis aethiopicus	DEC	DEC
Treron waalia	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Trigonoceps occipitalis	NO CHANGE	DEC
Turdoides plebejus	DEC	DEC
Turdoides reinwardii	DEC	DEC
Turdus pelios	NO CHANGE	DEC
Turtur abyssinicus	NO CHANGE	DEC
Uraeginthus bengalus	DEC	DEC
Urocolius macrourus	INC	NO CHANGE
Vanellus spinosus	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Vanellus tectus	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Vidua chalybeata	DEC	DEC
Vidua interjecta	DEC	DEC
Vidua paradisaea	INC	NO CHANGE
Vidua wilsoni	DEC	DEC
Zosterops senegalensis	NO CHANGE	DEC

The full description of the methodology used for this assessment can be downloaded here: Species Distribution Model

Download the full set of data for River Gambia (CSV file).