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Climate change vulnerability assessments

The boundaries and names shown, and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations or IUCN

Name

Ferlo-Sud

WDPA ID
2332
Country
SEN
IUCN category
IV

Species vulnerable to climate change

According to Traits-based Vulnerability Assessments (TVAs)

	Vulnerable Species	Total Species
Amphibian	2	15
Bird	41	302
Mammal	5	62
Total	48	379

12 % of bird, amphibian, and mammal species assessed are considered vulnerable to climate change

Expected species turnover

According to Species Distribution Models (SDMs)

Percentage of species turnover: Median (95% Confidence Interval)

	by 2010-2039	by 2040-2069
Bird	14.0% 28.3% 43.7%	23.8% 49.4% 77.5%
Mammal	12.7% 27.4% 48.6%	22.2% 48.7% 77.7%
Amphibian	6.9% 22.0% 40.6%	15.5% 51.2% 84.1%

Vulnerable species

Name	Order	IUCN Red List category	Sensitivity to climate change	Adaptability to climate change
Caprimulgus europaeus	Caprimulgiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Low reproductive capacity
Falco peregrinus	Falconiformes	LC	Microhabitat specialisation Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Low genetic diversity Slow turnover of generations
Himantopus himantopus	Charadriiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations
Lybius vieilloti	Piciformes	LC	Microhabitat specialisation Small population size Small effective population size	Low intrinsic dispersal capacity Slow turnover of generations
Pelecanus onocrotalus	Pelecaniformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations Low reproductive capacity
Tringa totanus	Charadriiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations
Anas crecca	Anseriformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations
Chelictinia riocourii	Falconiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes Small population size Small effective population size	Slow turnover of generations
Numenius arquata	Charadriiformes	NT	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations
Rhinopomastus aterrimus	Coraciiformes	LC	Microhabitat specialisation Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes Low Tolerance to temperature changes Small population size Small effective population size	Slow turnover of generations Low reproductive capacity
Torgos tracheliotos	Falconiformes	VU	Low Tolerance to temperature changes Small population size Small effective population size	Slow turnover of generations Low reproductive capacity
Apus apus	Apodiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations
Circus macrourus	Falconiformes	NT	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations
Falco alopex	Falconiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes Low Tolerance to temperature changes Small population size Small effective population size	Slow turnover of generations
Ortyxelos meiffrenii	Gruiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes Small population size Small effective population size	Low reproductive capacity
Anas acuta	Anseriformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations
Apus pallidus	Apodiformes	LC	Microhabitat specialisation	Slow turnover of generations
Bucorvus abyssinicus	Coraciiformes	LC	Microhabitat specialisation Small population size Small effective population size	Low intrinsic dispersal capacity Slow turnover of generations Low reproductive capacity
Accipiter erythropus	Falconiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes Small effective population size	Slow turnover of generations Low reproductive capacity
Ciconia ciconia	Ciconiiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations
Circus pygargus	Falconiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations
Hieraaetus pennatus	Falconiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations Low reproductive capacity
Lymnocryptes minimus	Charadriiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Extrinsic barriers to dispersal
Circaetus gallicus	Falconiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations Low reproductive capacity
Upupa epops	Coraciiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations
Circaetus beaudouini	Falconiformes	VU	Small population size Small effective population size	Slow turnover of generations Low reproductive capacity
Circus aeruginosus	Falconiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations
Aythya nyroca	Anseriformes	NT	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations
Streptopelia turtur	Columbiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Low reproductive capacity
Struthio camelus	Struthioniformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes Small population size Small effective population size	Low intrinsic dispersal capacity Slow turnover of generations
Recurvirostra avosetta	Charadriiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations
Ardeotis arabs	Gruiformes	NT	Low Tolerance to temperature changes Small population size Small effective population size	Slow turnover of generations Low reproductive capacity
Streptopelia roseogrisea	Columbiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes Small population size Small effective population size	Low reproductive capacity
Gyps fulvus	Falconiformes	LC	Microhabitat specialisation Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations Low reproductive capacity
Pernis apivorus	Falconiformes	LC	Intolerance of disturbance Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations Low reproductive capacity
Telacanthura ussheri	Apodiformes	LC	Microhabitat specialisation Small population size Small effective population size	Slow turnover of generations
Aythya ferina	Anseriformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations
Marmaronetta angustirostris	Anseriformes	VU	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations
Turdoides fulva	Passeriformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes Small population size Small effective population size	Low intrinsic dispersal capacity Slow turnover of generations
Caprimulgus eximius	Caprimulgiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes Small population size Small effective population size	Low reproductive capacity
Burhinus oedicnemus	Charadriiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations Low reproductive capacity

The full description of the methodology used for this assessment can be downloaded here: Traits-based Vulnerability Assessments

Expected changes in climate suitability

Name	By 2010-2039	By 2040-2069
Lybius vieilloti	DEC	DEC
Chelictinia riocourii	DEC	DEC
Rhinopomastus aterrimus	DEC	DEC
Falco alopex	DEC	DEC
Bucorvus abyssinicus	NO CHANGE	DEC
Circaetus beaudouini	NO CHANGE	DEC
Struthio camelus	NO CHANGE	DEC
Streptopelia roseogrisea	DEC	DEC
Nectarinia chloropygia	INC	NO CHANGE
Campethera nivosa	INC	INC
Corvus ruficollis	INC	INC
Cursorius cursor	INC	NO CHANGE
Turdoides fulva	INC	NO CHANGE
Bubo ascalaphus	INC	NO CHANGE
Gyps rueppellii	DEC	DEC
Tockus nasutus	NO CHANGE	DEC
Lybius dubius	NO CHANGE	DEC
Tockus erythrorhynchus	NO CHANGE	DEC
Accipiter melanoleucus	INC	NO CHANGE
Accipiter ovampensis	INC	NO CHANGE
Alaemon alaudipes	INC	INC
Alcedo cristata	INC	NO CHANGE
Alopochen aegyptiaca	NO CHANGE	DEC
Amadina fasciata	NO CHANGE	DEC
Amandava subflava	INC	INC
Amaurornis flavirostra	NO CHANGE	DEC
Ammomanes deserti	INC	INC
Anas hottentota	NO CHANGE	INC
Anastomus lamelligerus	INC	NO CHANGE
Anhinga rufa	INC	INC
Anthoscopus parvulus	INC	NO CHANGE
Anthoscopus punctifrons	NO CHANGE	DEC
Anthreptes platurus	DEC	DEC
Anthus leucophrys	INC	NO CHANGE
Anthus similis	INC	INC
Apus caffer	INC	NO CHANGE
Aquila rapax	DEC	DEC
Aquila wahlbergi	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Ardea melanocephala	INC	NO CHANGE
Asio capensis	INC	INC
Balearica pavonina	INC	INC
Batis senegalensis	NO CHANGE	DEC
Bubalornis albirostris	NO CHANGE	DEC
Burhinus capensis	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Burhinus senegalensis	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Butastur rufipennis	NO CHANGE	DEC
Camaroptera brachyura	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Campethera maculosa	INC	NO CHANGE
Campethera punctuligera	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Caprimulgus climacurus	DEC	DEC
Caprimulgus inornatus	INC	INC
Centropus grillii	INC	INC
Centropus senegalensis	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Cercotrichas podobe	DEC	DEC
Chrysococcyx caprius	INC	INC
Chrysococcyx cupreus	INC	INC
Ciconia abdimii	DEC	DEC
Cinnyricinclus leucogaster	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Circaetus cinerascens	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Cisticola erythrops	INC	NO CHANGE
Clamator glandarius	NO CHANGE	DEC
Clamator jacobinus	NO CHANGE	DEC
Clamator levaillantii	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Columba guinea	DEC	DEC
Coracias abyssinicus	DEC	DEC
Coracias cyanogaster	NO CHANGE	DEC
Coracias naevia	NO CHANGE	DEC
Corvinella corvina	NO CHANGE	DEC
Corvus albus	NO CHANGE	DEC
Corvus rhipidurus	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Cossypha albicapilla	INC	NO CHANGE
Cossypha niveicapilla	DEC	DEC
Coturnix delegorguei	INC	NO CHANGE
Cuculus clamosus	INC	NO CHANGE
Cuculus gularis	NO CHANGE	DEC
Dendrocopos obsoletus	NO CHANGE	DEC
Egretta gularis	INC	INC
Emberiza flaviventris	INC	INC
Emberiza striolata	INC	INC
Emberiza tahapisi	INC	NO CHANGE
Eremomela pusilla	NO CHANGE	DEC
Eremopterix leucotis	DEC	DEC
Eremopterix nigriceps	INC	INC
Estrilda melpoda	INC	INC
Euplectes afer	INC	NO CHANGE
Euplectes franciscanus	NO CHANGE	DEC
Euplectes hordeaceus	INC	NO CHANGE
Eupodotis melanogaster	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Eupodotis senegalensis	DEC	DEC
Falco biarmicus	DEC	DEC
Falco chicquera	DEC	DEC
Francolinus albogularis	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Francolinus bicalcaratus	NO CHANGE	DEC
Gallinula angulata	INC	INC
Glaucidium perlatum	NO CHANGE	DEC
Gypohierax angolensis	INC	NO CHANGE
Gyps africanus	NO CHANGE	DEC
Halcyon senegalensis	NO CHANGE	DEC
Haliaeetus vocifer	NO CHANGE	DEC
Hieraaetus spilogaster	NO CHANGE	DEC
Hippolais pallida	INC	NO CHANGE
Hirundo aethiopica	INC	NO CHANGE
Hirundo fuligula	INC	NO CHANGE
Hirundo obsoleta	INC	INC
Hirundo senegalensis	NO CHANGE	DEC
Hylia prasina	INC	NO CHANGE
Hypergerus atriceps	INC	NO CHANGE
Indicator indicator	INC	INC
Indicator minor	DEC	DEC
Lagonosticta senegala	NO CHANGE	DEC
Lamprotornis caudatus	NO CHANGE	DEC
Lamprotornis chalcurus	INC	NO CHANGE
Lamprotornis chalybaeus	NO CHANGE	DEC
Lamprotornis chloropterus	NO CHANGE	DEC
Lamprotornis pulcher	NO CHANGE	DEC
Lamprotornis purpureus	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Laniarius barbarus	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Lanius collaris	NO CHANGE	INC
Lonchura cantans	NO CHANGE	DEC
Lonchura fringilloides	INC	INC
Megaceryle maxima	INC	INC
Melaenornis edolioides	INC	NO CHANGE
Melierax gabar	NO CHANGE	DEC
Melierax metabates	DEC	DEC
Merops hirundineus	INC	NO CHANGE
Merops nubicus	DEC	DEC
Merops pusillus	INC	NO CHANGE
Mesopicos goertae	NO CHANGE	DEC
Microparra capensis	INC	NO CHANGE
Mirafra cantillans	DEC	DEC
Mirafra cordofanica	INC	NO CHANGE
Mirafra rufocinnamomea	INC	INC
Muscicapa aquatica	INC	NO CHANGE
Muscicapa gambagae	INC	NO CHANGE
Mycteria ibis	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Myrmecocichla aethiops	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Necrosyrtes monachus	NO CHANGE	DEC
Nectarinia cuprea	INC	NO CHANGE
Nectarinia pulchella	DEC	DEC
Nectarinia senegalensis	NO CHANGE	DEC
Nectarinia venusta	INC	NO CHANGE
Neotis denhami	INC	NO CHANGE
Nilaus afer	DEC	DEC
Oenanthe heuglini	INC	NO CHANGE
Onychognathus morio	INC	INC
Oriolus auratus	INC	NO CHANGE
Ortygospiza atricollis	INC	INC
Otus leucotis	INC	INC
Otus senegalensis	NO CHANGE	DEC
Passer griseus	DEC	DEC
Petronia dentata	NO CHANGE	DEC
Petronia pyrgita	INC	INC
Phoenicopterus roseus	INC	INC
Phoeniculus purpureus	NO CHANGE	DEC
Platalea alba	NO CHANGE	DEC
Plectropterus gambensis	NO CHANGE	DEC
Plegadis falcinellus	DEC	DEC
Ploceus luteolus	NO CHANGE	DEC
Ploceus melanocephalus	INC	INC
Ploceus nigricollis	INC	NO CHANGE
Ploceus vitellinus	NO CHANGE	DEC
Pluvianus aegyptius	DEC	DEC
Pogoniulus chrysoconus	INC	NO CHANGE
Poicephalus senegalus	NO CHANGE	DEC
Polemaetus bellicosus	NO CHANGE	DEC
Prinia subflava	NO CHANGE	DEC
Prionops plumatus	NO CHANGE	DEC
Pterocles lichtensteinii	INC	INC
Pterocles quadricinctus	DEC	DEC
Pterocles senegallus	INC	INC
Ptilostomus afer	NO CHANGE	DEC
Pycnonotus barbatus	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Pytilia melba	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Pytilia phoenicoptera	INC	NO CHANGE
Quelea quelea	INC	INC
Rynchops flavirostris	INC	NO CHANGE
Sagittarius serpentarius	INC	INC
Scotopelia peli	INC	INC
Stephanoaetus coronatus	INC	INC
Stigmatopelia senegalensis	NO CHANGE	DEC
Streptopelia decipiens	NO CHANGE	DEC
Streptopelia semitorquata	INC	NO CHANGE
Streptopelia vinacea	NO CHANGE	DEC
Strix woodfordii	INC	NO CHANGE
Sylvietta brachyura	NO CHANGE	DEC
Tchagra senegalus	NO CHANGE	DEC
Thalassornis leuconotus	INC	INC
Threskiornis aethiopicus	INC	NO CHANGE
Treron waalia	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Turdoides plebejus	NO CHANGE	DEC
Turtur abyssinicus	NO CHANGE	DEC
Turtur afer	INC	NO CHANGE
Uraeginthus bengalus	NO CHANGE	DEC
Vanellus albiceps	INC	INC
Vanellus senegallus	NO CHANGE	DEC
Vanellus spinosus	NO CHANGE	DEC
Vanellus tectus	NO CHANGE	DEC
Vidua chalybeata	NO CHANGE	DEC
Vidua paradisaea	NO CHANGE	DEC
Zosterops senegalensis	INC	NO CHANGE

The full description of the methodology used for this assessment can be downloaded here: Species Distribution Model

Download the full set of data for Ferlo-Sud (CSV file).