Climate change vulnerability assessments

The boundaries and names shown, and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations or IUCN

Name

Keran

  • WDPA ID

    2339

  • Country

    TGO

  • IUCN category

    II

Species vulnerable to climate change

According to Traits-based Vulnerability Assessments (TVAs)

Vulnerable Species Total Species
Amphibian
4
28
Bird
32
363
Mammal
3
107
Total
39
498

7 % of bird, amphibian, and mammal species assessed are considered vulnerable to climate change

Expected species turnover

According to Species Distribution Models (SDMs)

Percentage of species turnover: Median (95% Confidence Interval)

by 2010-2039 by 2040-2069
Bird
  • 7.9%
  • 11.3%
  • 25.2%
  • 11.6%
  • 19.9%
  • 33.1%
Mammal
  • 8.5%
  • 12.0%
  • 22.3%
  • 11.9%
  • 24.2%
  • 34.7%
Amphibian
  • 7.0%
  • 12.8%
  • 33.9%
  • 11.8%
  • 32.5%
  • 53.3%

Vulnerable species

Name Order Exposure

by 2010-2039   by 2040-2069

IUCN Red List category Sensitivity

to climate change

Adaptability

to climate change

Caprimulgus europaeus Caprimulgiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Low reproductive capacity
Falco peregrinus Falconiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Low genetic diversity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Himantopus himantopus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Lybius vieilloti Piciformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity´┐╝
  • Slow turnover of generations
Pelecanus onocrotalus Pelecaniformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Tringa totanus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Chelictinia riocourii Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
Ciconia nigra Ciconiiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Rhinopomastus aterrimus Coraciiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Apus apus Apodiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Circus macrourus Falconiformes
NT
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Falco alopex Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
Falco subbuteo Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Anas acuta Anseriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Apus pallidus Apodiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Slow turnover of generations
Bucorvus abyssinicus Coraciiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity´┐╝
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Accipiter erythropus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Ciconia ciconia Ciconiiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Circus pygargus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Glareola cinerea Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Hieraaetus pennatus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Lymnocryptes minimus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Extrinsic barriers to dispersal
Tringa erythropus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Extrinsic barriers to dispersal
Tachymarptis melba Apodiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Upupa epops Coraciiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Circus aeruginosus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Neophron percnopterus Falconiformes
EN
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Elminia longicauda Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Pernis apivorus Falconiformes
LC
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Telacanthura ussheri Apodiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
Tauraco persa Cuculiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Merops malimbicus Coraciiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity

The full description of the methodology used for this assessment can be downloaded here: Traits-based Vulnerability Assessments

Expected changes in climate suitability

Name By 2010-2039 By 2040-2069
Lybius vieilloti
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Chelictinia riocourii
DEC
DEC
Rhinopomastus aterrimus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Torgos tracheliotos
INC
INC
Falco alopex
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Ortyxelos meiffrenii
INC
INC
Bucorvus abyssinicus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Circaetus beaudouini
INC
INC
Struthio camelus
INC
INC
Ardeotis arabs
INC
INC
Streptopelia roseogrisea
INC
INC
Nectarinia chloropygia
INC
INC
Telacanthura ussheri
DEC
NO CHANGE
Bubo poensis
INC
NO CHANGE
Bycanistes fistulator
INC
NO CHANGE
Tricholaema hirsuta
INC
NO CHANGE
Campethera nivosa
INC
INC
Cossypha cyanocampter
INC
INC
Nicator chloris
INC
INC
Andropadus gracilis
INC
NO CHANGE
Oriolus brachyrhynchus
INC
NO CHANGE
Andropadus latirostris
INC
NO CHANGE
Baeopogon indicator
INC
NO CHANGE
Chlorocichla simplex
INC
NO CHANGE
Pogoniulus scolopaceus
INC
NO CHANGE
Pogoniulus bilineatus
INC
INC
Sylvietta virens
INC
INC
Sarothrura pulchra
INC
NO CHANGE
Camaroptera chloronota
INC
INC
Columba iriditorques
INC
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia verticalis
INC
INC
Pogoniulus atroflavus
INC
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia superba
INC
INC
Fraseria cinerascens
INC
INC
Glareola nuchalis
INC
INC
Illadopsis fulvescens
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia johannae
INC
NO CHANGE
Sylvietta denti
NO CHANGE
INC
Thescelocichla leucopleura
INC
INC
Lamprotornis splendidus
INC
INC
Corvus ruficollis
INC
INC
Bycanistes albotibialis
INC
NO CHANGE
Scotopelia bouvieri
INC
INC
Nectarinia rubescens
INC
NO CHANGE
Tockus nasutus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Lybius bidentatus
INC
INC
Tigriornis leucolopha
INC
INC
Accipiter melanoleucus
INC
INC
Accipiter ovampensis
DEC
NO CHANGE
Accipiter tachiro
INC
INC
Acrocephalus rufescens
INC
INC
Aenigmatolimnas marginalis
INC
INC
Alaemon alaudipes
INC
NO CHANGE
Alcedo leucogaster
NO CHANGE
INC
Alcedo quadribrachys
INC
INC
Alethe diademata
INC
INC
Alethe poliocephala
INC
NO CHANGE
Amadina fasciata
INC
INC
Amblyospiza albifrons
INC
INC
Ammomanes deserti
INC
INC
Anas capensis
INC
INC
Anas hottentota
INC
INC
Anas sparsa
INC
INC
Anastomus lamelligerus
INC
INC
Andropadus gracilirostris
INC
INC
Andropadus virens
INC
INC
Anomalospiza imberbis
INC
INC
Anthoscopus punctifrons
INC
INC
Anthreptes collaris
INC
INC
Anthreptes fraseri
INC
NO CHANGE
Anthreptes gabonicus
INC
INC
Anthreptes platurus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Anthus leucophrys
DEC
DEC
Anthus similis
INC
INC
Apalis sharpii
INC
NO CHANGE
Apaloderma narina
INC
INC
Apus caffer
NO CHANGE
DEC
Aquila rapax
NO CHANGE
DEC
Aquila wahlbergi
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Ardea melanocephala
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Asio capensis
INC
INC
Aviceda cuculoides
DEC
NO CHANGE
Balaeniceps rex
INC
INC
Batis senegalensis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Bleda canicapillus
INC
INC
Bubalornis albirostris
INC
INC
Bubo africanus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Buphagus africanus
INC
INC
Burhinus senegalensis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Burhinus vermiculatus
INC
NO CHANGE
Butastur rufipennis
INC
INC
Bycanistes subcylindricus
INC
NO CHANGE
Campethera abingoni
INC
INC
Campethera maculosa
INC
INC
Caprimulgus climacurus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Caprimulgus inornatus
INC
INC
Caprimulgus natalensis
NO CHANGE
INC
Caprimulgus nigriscapularis
INC
INC
Caprimulgus tristigma
DEC
DEC
Centropus monachus
INC
INC
Ceratogymna elata
INC
NO CHANGE
Cercomela familiaris
DEC
DEC
Cercotrichas podobe
INC
NO CHANGE
Ceuthmochares aereus
INC
NO CHANGE
Charadrius forbesi
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Charadrius marginatus
INC
INC
Charadrius pecuarius
NO CHANGE
DEC
Chrysococcyx cupreus
DEC
DEC
Ciconia abdimii
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Circaetus cinerascens
DEC
DEC
Circaetus cinereus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Cisticola aberrans
INC
INC
Cisticola aridulus
INC
INC
Cisticola brachypterus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Cisticola cantans
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Cisticola eximius
NO CHANGE
DEC
Cisticola guinea
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Cisticola lateralis
INC
INC
Cisticola ruficeps
INC
INC
Cisticola troglodytes
NO CHANGE
INC
Clamator glandarius
NO CHANGE
DEC
Clamator jacobinus
INC
INC
Columba guinea
NO CHANGE
DEC
Coracias abyssinicus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Coracias naevia
DEC
DEC
Coracina pectoralis
DEC
DEC
Corvinella corvina
NO CHANGE
DEC
Corvus rhipidurus
INC
INC
Cossypha albicapilla
DEC
DEC
Cossypha natalensis
INC
INC
Coturnix delegorguei
INC
INC
Cuculus clamosus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Cuculus gularis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Cypsiurus parvus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Dendrocopos obsoletus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Drymocichla incana
INC
NO CHANGE
Dryoscopus gambensis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Egretta ardesiaca
INC
INC
Egretta gularis
INC
INC
Emberiza flaviventris
INC
INC
Emberiza striolata
INC
INC
Ephippiorhynchus senegalensis
INC
INC
Eremomela icteropygialis
INC
INC
Eremomela pusilla
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Eremopterix nigriceps
INC
INC
Erythrocercus mccallii
INC
NO CHANGE
Erythropygia galactotes
INC
INC
Estrilda astrild
NO CHANGE
INC
Euplectes ardens
NO CHANGE
INC
Euplectes axillaris
NO CHANGE
INC
Euplectes franciscanus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Eurystomus gularis
INC
NO CHANGE
Falco biarmicus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Falco chicquera
DEC
DEC
Falco cuvierii
NO CHANGE
DEC
Francolinus ahantensis
INC
INC
Francolinus clappertoni
INC
INC
Francolinus coqui
INC
INC
Guttera pucherani
INC
NO CHANGE
Halcyon chelicuti
DEC
DEC
Heliolais erythropterus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Hieraaetus ayresii
INC
INC
Hieraaetus spilogaster
NO CHANGE
DEC
Hippolais pallida
INC
INC
Hirundo aethiopica
INC
INC
Hirundo fuligula
DEC
DEC
Hirundo leucosoma
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Hirundo nigrita
INC
NO CHANGE
Hirundo preussi
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Hirundo senegalensis
DEC
DEC
Hylia prasina
INC
INC
Hyliota flavigaster
INC
INC
Hyliota violacea
INC
NO CHANGE
Illadopsis puveli
NO CHANGE
INC
Indicator exilis
INC
INC
Indicator indicator
DEC
DEC
Indicator minor
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Indicator willcocksi
INC
INC
Lagonosticta rara
DEC
DEC
Lagonosticta rhodopareia
INC
INC
Lagonosticta senegala
NO CHANGE
DEC
Lamprotornis chalcurus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Lamprotornis chalybaeus
INC
INC
Lamprotornis chloropterus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Lamprotornis pulcher
INC
INC
Laniarius erythrogaster
NO CHANGE
INC
Lanius collaris
INC
INC
Lanius excubitoroides
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Lanius gubernator
INC
INC
Lonchura bicolor
INC
INC
Lonchura cucullata
NO CHANGE
DEC
Lonchura fringilloides
NO CHANGE
INC
Macheiramphus alcinus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Macrodipteryx longipennis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Malaconotus blanchoti
DEC
DEC
Malimbus nitens
INC
INC
Melaenornis edolioides
NO CHANGE
DEC
Melierax gabar
DEC
DEC
Melierax metabates
NO CHANGE
DEC
Melocichla mentalis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Merops hirundineus
DEC
DEC
Merops nubicus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Merops pusillus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Mesopicos goertae
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Microparra capensis
INC
INC
Mirafra africana
INC
INC
Mirafra albicauda
INC
INC
Mirafra cantillans
INC
INC
Muscicapa caerulescens
INC
NO CHANGE
Muscicapa gambagae
DEC
DEC
Myioparus plumbeus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Myrmecocichla aethiops
NO CHANGE
INC
Myrmecocichla albifrons
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Necrosyrtes monachus
DEC
DEC
Nectarinia adelberti
INC
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia coccinigaster
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia olivacea
INC
INC
Nectarinia pulchella
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia venusta
INC
INC
Neotis denhami
NO CHANGE
DEC
Nesocharis capistrata
INC
INC
Nigrita bicolor
INC
INC
Nigrita fusconotus
INC
INC
Nilaus afer
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Numida meleagris
DEC
DEC
Oena capensis
INC
INC
Oenanthe heuglini
INC
INC
Onychognathus morio
INC
INC
Otus leucotis
DEC
DEC
Otus senegalensis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Pachycoccyx audeberti
INC
INC
Passer luteus
INC
NO CHANGE
Pelecanus rufescens
INC
NO CHANGE
Petronia pyrgita
INC
INC
Phoenicopterus roseus
INC
INC
Phyllanthus atripennis
INC
INC
Plegadis falcinellus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Ploceus melanocephalus
INC
INC
Ploceus nigerrimus
INC
INC
Ploceus nigricollis
INC
INC
Ploceus superciliosus
INC
INC
Ploceus vitellinus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Pogoniulus chrysoconus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Polemaetus bellicosus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Prinia subflava
NO CHANGE
DEC
Prionops caniceps
INC
INC
Prionops plumatus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Prodotiscus regulus
INC
INC
Psalidoprocne pristoptera
INC
INC
Pseudhirundo griseopyga
INC
INC
Pterocles lichtensteinii
INC
INC
Ptilopachus petrosus
DEC
DEC
Ptilostomus afer
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Pyrrhurus scandens
INC
INC
Pytilia hypogrammica
NO CHANGE
DEC
Pytilia melba
INC
INC
Quelea quelea
INC
INC
Rallus caerulescens
INC
NO CHANGE
Rhinoptilus chalcopterus
DEC
NO CHANGE
Sagittarius serpentarius
INC
INC
Schoenicola brevirostris
INC
NO CHANGE
Scotopelia peli
INC
INC
Serinus gularis
DEC
DEC
Serinus leucopygius
INC
INC
Serinus mozambicus
DEC
DEC
Spermophaga haematina
INC
INC
Sporopipes frontalis
INC
INC
Stephanoaetus coronatus
INC
INC
Stigmatopelia senegalensis
INC
INC
Streptopelia decipiens
INC
INC
Streptopelia vinacea
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Strix woodfordii
INC
INC
Sylvietta brachyura
NO CHANGE
DEC
Tchagra minutus
INC
NO CHANGE
Tchagra senegalus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Telophorus multicolor
INC
INC
Telophorus sulfureopectus
DEC
DEC
Terathopius ecaudatus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Thalassornis leuconotus
INC
INC
Tockus fasciatus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Trachyphonus purpuratus
INC
NO CHANGE
Turdoides plebejus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Turdoides reinwardii
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Turtur abyssinicus
INC
INC
Turtur tympanistria
INC
NO CHANGE
Uraeginthus bengalus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Urocolius macrourus
NO CHANGE
INC
Vanellus crassirostris
NO CHANGE
INC
Vanellus lugubris
INC
NO CHANGE
Vanellus spinosus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Vanellus tectus
INC
INC
Vidua chalybeata
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Vidua interjecta
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Vidua paradisaea
INC
INC
Vidua raricola
INC
NO CHANGE
Vidua togoensis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Vidua wilsoni
NO CHANGE
DEC
Zosterops senegalensis
NO CHANGE
DEC

The full description of the methodology used for this assessment can be downloaded here: Species Distribution Model