Climate change vulnerability assessments

The boundaries and names shown, and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations or IUCN

Name

Niokolo-Koba National Park

  • WDPA ID

    2580

  • Country

    SEN

  • IUCN category

    Not Applicable

Species vulnerable to climate change

According to Traits-based Vulnerability Assessments (TVAs)

Vulnerable Species Total Species
Amphibian
4
30
Bird
42
386
Mammal
5
116
Total
51
532

9 % of bird, amphibian, and mammal species assessed are considered vulnerable to climate change

Expected species turnover

According to Species Distribution Models (SDMs)

Percentage of species turnover: Median (95% Confidence Interval)

by 2010-2039 by 2040-2069
Bird
  • 16.3%
  • 21.4%
  • 29.0%
  • 24.9%
  • 35.4%
  • 50.5%
Mammal
  • 17.0%
  • 26.2%
  • 38.5%
  • 27.5%
  • 47.0%
  • 68.1%
Amphibian
  • 17.6%
  • 33.6%
  • 59.2%
  • 28.2%
  • 53.2%
  • 75.3%

Vulnerable species

Name Order Exposure

by 2010-2039   by 2040-2069

IUCN Red List category Sensitivity

to climate change

Adaptability

to climate change

Caprimulgus europaeus Caprimulgiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Low reproductive capacity
Himantopus himantopus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Lybius vieilloti Piciformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity´┐╝
  • Slow turnover of generations
Pelecanus onocrotalus Pelecaniformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Tringa totanus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Anas crecca Anseriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Chelictinia riocourii Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
Numenius arquata Charadriiformes
NT
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Rhinopomastus aterrimus Coraciiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Torgos tracheliotos Falconiformes
VU
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Apus apus Apodiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Circus macrourus Falconiformes
NT
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Falco alopex Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
Falco subbuteo Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Anas acuta Anseriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Apus pallidus Apodiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Slow turnover of generations
Bucorvus abyssinicus Coraciiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity´┐╝
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Accipiter erythropus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Ciconia ciconia Ciconiiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Circus pygargus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Hieraaetus pennatus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Lymnocryptes minimus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Extrinsic barriers to dispersal
Tringa erythropus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Extrinsic barriers to dispersal
Circaetus gallicus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Upupa epops Coraciiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Circaetus beaudouini Falconiformes
VU
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Circus aeruginosus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Neophron percnopterus Falconiformes
EN
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Elminia longicauda Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Aythya nyroca Anseriformes
NT
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Streptopelia turtur Columbiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Low reproductive capacity
Recurvirostra avosetta Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Streptopelia roseogrisea Columbiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Nectarinia chloropygia Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Gyps fulvus Falconiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Pernis apivorus Falconiformes
LC
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Telacanthura ussheri Apodiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
Tauraco persa Cuculiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Camaroptera chloronota Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Nectarinia verticalis Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Aythya ferina Anseriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Marmaronetta angustirostris Anseriformes
VU
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations

The full description of the methodology used for this assessment can be downloaded here: Traits-based Vulnerability Assessments

Expected changes in climate suitability

Name By 2010-2039 By 2040-2069
Lybius vieilloti
DEC
DEC
Rhinopomastus aterrimus
DEC
DEC
Falco alopex
DEC
DEC
Ortyxelos meiffrenii
INC
INC
Bucorvus abyssinicus
DEC
DEC
Glareola cinerea
INC
NO CHANGE
Elminia longicauda
DEC
NO CHANGE
Struthio camelus
INC
INC
Ardeotis arabs
INC
INC
Streptopelia roseogrisea
INC
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia chloropygia
INC
NO CHANGE
Campethera nivosa
INC
INC
Nicator chloris
INC
NO CHANGE
Pogoniulus bilineatus
INC
NO CHANGE
Sylvietta virens
INC
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia superba
INC
NO CHANGE
Fraseria cinerascens
INC
NO CHANGE
Glareola nuchalis
INC
NO CHANGE
Illadopsis fulvescens
INC
INC
Corvus ruficollis
INC
INC
Turdoides fulva
INC
NO CHANGE
Gyps rueppellii
NO CHANGE
DEC
Tockus nasutus
DEC
DEC
Lybius bidentatus
INC
NO CHANGE
Lybius dubius
NO CHANGE
DEC
Accipiter melanoleucus
INC
INC
Accipiter ovampensis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Accipiter tachiro
INC
NO CHANGE
Acrocephalus rufescens
INC
INC
Actophilornis africanus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Aenigmatolimnas marginalis
INC
INC
Alaemon alaudipes
INC
INC
Alcedo quadribrachys
INC
NO CHANGE
Amadina fasciata
INC
NO CHANGE
Amandava subflava
INC
INC
Amaurornis flavirostra
DEC
DEC
Ammomanes deserti
INC
INC
Anaplectes rubriceps
INC
INC
Anas hottentota
NO CHANGE
INC
Anas sparsa
INC
INC
Anastomus lamelligerus
INC
INC
Andropadus gracilirostris
INC
NO CHANGE
Anhinga rufa
INC
INC
Anomalospiza imberbis
INC
NO CHANGE
Anthoscopus parvulus
DEC
DEC
Anthoscopus punctifrons
INC
INC
Anthreptes collaris
INC
INC
Anthreptes gabonicus
INC
NO CHANGE
Anthreptes platurus
DEC
DEC
Anthus leucophrys
NO CHANGE
DEC
Anthus similis
INC
INC
Apalis flavida
INC
NO CHANGE
Aplopelia larvata
INC
NO CHANGE
Apus caffer
NO CHANGE
DEC
Aquila rapax
INC
NO CHANGE
Aquila wahlbergi
INC
INC
Ardea melanocephala
DEC
DEC
Asio capensis
INC
INC
Aviceda cuculoides
NO CHANGE
DEC
Balearica pavonina
INC
NO CHANGE
Batis senegalensis
DEC
DEC
Bradornis pallidus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Bubo africanus
DEC
DEC
Burhinus senegalensis
DEC
DEC
Butastur rufipennis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Buteo auguralis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Camaroptera brachyura
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Campephaga phoenicea
DEC
DEC
Campethera punctuligera
DEC
DEC
Caprimulgus climacurus
DEC
DEC
Caprimulgus inornatus
INC
INC
Caprimulgus natalensis
INC
INC
Caprimulgus tristigma
INC
NO CHANGE
Centropus monachus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Centropus senegalensis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Cercotrichas podobe
INC
INC
Charadrius forbesi
DEC
DEC
Charadrius marginatus
INC
NO CHANGE
Charadrius pecuarius
DEC
DEC
Chlorocichla flavicollis
DEC
DEC
Chrysococcyx caprius
NO CHANGE
DEC
Chrysococcyx klaas
NO CHANGE
DEC
Ciconia abdimii
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Cinnyricinclus leucogaster
DEC
DEC
Circaetus cinerascens
DEC
DEC
Circaetus cinereus
DEC
DEC
Cisticola aberrans
INC
INC
Cisticola aridulus
INC
INC
Cisticola cantans
DEC
DEC
Cisticola galactotes
INC
NO CHANGE
Clamator glandarius
DEC
DEC
Clamator jacobinus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Clamator levaillantii
NO CHANGE
DEC
Columba guinea
DEC
DEC
Coracias abyssinicus
DEC
DEC
Coracias cyanogaster
NO CHANGE
DEC
Coracias naevia
DEC
DEC
Coracina pectoralis
DEC
DEC
Corvinella corvina
NO CHANGE
DEC
Corvus albus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Corvus rhipidurus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Cossypha albicapilla
DEC
DEC
Cossypha niveicapilla
DEC
DEC
Coturnix delegorguei
INC
INC
Crecopsis egregia
INC
NO CHANGE
Cuculus clamosus
DEC
DEC
Cursorius temminckii
INC
INC
Cypsiurus parvus
DEC
DEC
Dendrocopos obsoletus
DEC
DEC
Dendropicos elachus
INC
NO CHANGE
Dryoscopus gambensis
DEC
NO CHANGE
Emberiza cabanisi
INC
NO CHANGE
Emberiza flaviventris
INC
INC
Emberiza striolata
INC
INC
Emberiza tahapisi
NO CHANGE
DEC
Ephippiorhynchus senegalensis
INC
INC
Eremomela icteropygialis
INC
INC
Eremomela pusilla
NO CHANGE
DEC
Eremopterix leucotis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Eremopterix nigriceps
INC
INC
Erythropygia galactotes
INC
INC
Estrilda astrild
INC
INC
Estrilda caerulescens
DEC
DEC
Euplectes afer
INC
INC
Euplectes franciscanus
DEC
DEC
Eupodotis melanogaster
NO CHANGE
DEC
Eupodotis senegalensis
INC
NO CHANGE
Eurystomus glaucurus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Falco ardosiaceus
DEC
DEC
Falco biarmicus
DEC
DEC
Falco chicquera
DEC
DEC
Falco cuvierii
DEC
DEC
Francolinus bicalcaratus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Francolinus clappertoni
NO CHANGE
INC
Francolinus coqui
INC
INC
Galerida modesta
NO CHANGE
DEC
Glaucidium perlatum
NO CHANGE
DEC
Gypohierax angolensis
DEC
DEC
Gyps africanus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Halcyon chelicuti
DEC
DEC
Halcyon malimbica
DEC
DEC
Halcyon senegalensis
DEC
DEC
Haliaeetus vocifer
DEC
DEC
Heliolais erythropterus
DEC
DEC
Hieraaetus ayresii
INC
INC
Hieraaetus spilogaster
NO CHANGE
DEC
Hippolais pallida
INC
NO CHANGE
Hirundo aethiopica
INC
INC
Hirundo fuligula
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Hirundo leucosoma
DEC
DEC
Hirundo preussi
INC
NO CHANGE
Hirundo senegalensis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Hyliota flavigaster
DEC
DEC
Indicator indicator
DEC
DEC
Indicator maculatus
DEC
DEC
Indicator minor
DEC
DEC
Lagonosticta larvata
DEC
DEC
Lagonosticta rara
NO CHANGE
DEC
Lagonosticta rubricata
INC
NO CHANGE
Lagonosticta senegala
DEC
DEC
Lamprotornis caudatus
DEC
DEC
Lamprotornis chalcurus
DEC
DEC
Lamprotornis chalybaeus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Lamprotornis chloropterus
DEC
DEC
Lamprotornis purpureus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Laniarius barbarus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Lanius collaris
INC
INC
Lonchura bicolor
INC
NO CHANGE
Lonchura cantans
INC
NO CHANGE
Lonchura cucullata
DEC
DEC
Lophaetus occipitalis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Macheiramphus alcinus
INC
NO CHANGE
Macrodipteryx longipennis
DEC
DEC
Macronyx croceus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Malaconotus blanchoti
NO CHANGE
DEC
Malimbus nitens
INC
NO CHANGE
Melaenornis edolioides
NO CHANGE
DEC
Melierax gabar
DEC
DEC
Melierax metabates
DEC
DEC
Melocichla mentalis
DEC
DEC
Merops bulocki
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Merops hirundineus
DEC
DEC
Merops pusillus
DEC
DEC
Mesopicos goertae
DEC
DEC
Microparra capensis
INC
INC
Mirafra africana
INC
INC
Mirafra cantillans
INC
INC
Mirafra cordofanica
INC
NO CHANGE
Mirafra rufocinnamomea
INC
INC
Motacilla aguimp
INC
INC
Muscicapa aquatica
NO CHANGE
DEC
Muscicapa gambagae
INC
INC
Mycteria ibis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Myioparus plumbeus
DEC
DEC
Myrmecocichla aethiops
INC
NO CHANGE
Myrmecocichla albifrons
DEC
DEC
Myrmecocichla nigra
INC
NO CHANGE
Necrosyrtes monachus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Nectarinia coccinigaster
INC
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia pulchella
DEC
DEC
Nectarinia senegalensis
DEC
DEC
Neotis denhami
DEC
DEC
Nigrita bicolor
INC
NO CHANGE
Nilaus afer
DEC
DEC
Numida meleagris
DEC
DEC
Oenanthe heuglini
INC
INC
Oriolus auratus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Otus leucotis
DEC
DEC
Otus senegalensis
DEC
NO CHANGE
Pachycoccyx audeberti
INC
NO CHANGE
Passer griseus
DEC
DEC
Passer luteus
INC
NO CHANGE
Petronia dentata
NO CHANGE
DEC
Petronia pyrgita
INC
INC
Phoenicopterus roseus
INC
INC
Phoeniculus purpureus
DEC
DEC
Phyllanthus atripennis
INC
NO CHANGE
Pinarocorys erythropygia
INC
NO CHANGE
Platalea alba
NO CHANGE
DEC
Platysteira cyanea
NO CHANGE
DEC
Plectropterus gambensis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Plegadis falcinellus
DEC
DEC
Plocepasser superciliosus
DEC
DEC
Ploceus luteolus
INC
NO CHANGE
Ploceus nigerrimus
INC
NO CHANGE
Ploceus superciliosus
INC
NO CHANGE
Ploceus vitellinus
DEC
DEC
Pluvianus aegyptius
NO CHANGE
DEC
Pogoniulus chrysoconus
DEC
DEC
Poicephalus robustus
INC
NO CHANGE
Poicephalus senegalus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Polemaetus bellicosus
DEC
DEC
Prinia subflava
DEC
DEC
Prionops plumatus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Psalidoprocne obscura
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Psalidoprocne pristoptera
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Pseudhirundo griseopyga
INC
NO CHANGE
Pterocles lichtensteinii
INC
INC
Pterocles quadricinctus
DEC
DEC
Ptilopachus petrosus
DEC
DEC
Ptilostomus afer
DEC
DEC
Pyrrhurus scandens
INC
NO CHANGE
Pytilia melba
INC
INC
Quelea erythrops
INC
NO CHANGE
Quelea quelea
INC
INC
Sagittarius serpentarius
INC
INC
Scotopelia peli
INC
INC
Serinus gularis
INC
INC
Serinus leucopygius
INC
INC
Serinus mozambicus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Spiloptila clamans
INC
NO CHANGE
Sporopipes frontalis
INC
INC
Stephanoaetus coronatus
INC
INC
Streptopelia semitorquata
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Streptopelia vinacea
DEC
DEC
Strix woodfordii
INC
NO CHANGE
Tchagra senegalus
DEC
DEC
Telophorus sulfureopectus
DEC
DEC
Thalassornis leuconotus
INC
INC
Threskiornis aethiopicus
DEC
DEC
Tockus fasciatus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Treron waalia
DEC
DEC
Turdoides plebejus
DEC
DEC
Turdoides reinwardii
DEC
DEC
Turdus pelios
NO CHANGE
DEC
Turtur abyssinicus
DEC
DEC
Uraeginthus bengalus
DEC
DEC
Urocolius macrourus
INC
INC
Vanellus senegallus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Vidua chalybeata
DEC
DEC
Vidua interjecta
DEC
DEC
Vidua paradisaea
INC
INC
Vidua wilsoni
DEC
DEC
Zosterops senegalensis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE

The full description of the methodology used for this assessment can be downloaded here: Species Distribution Model