Climate change vulnerability assessments

The boundaries and names shown, and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations or IUCN

Name

Barrage

  • WDPA ID

    28534

  • Country

    BFA

  • IUCN category

    Not Reported

Species vulnerable to climate change

According to Traits-based Vulnerability Assessments (TVAs)

Vulnerable Species Total Species
Amphibian
3
22
Bird
30
308
Mammal
3
72
Total
36
402

8 % of bird, amphibian, and mammal species assessed are considered vulnerable to climate change

Expected species turnover

According to Species Distribution Models (SDMs)

Percentage of species turnover: Median (95% Confidence Interval)

by 2010-2039 by 2040-2069
Bird
  • 9.7%
  • 11.7%
  • 22.3%
  • 12.4%
  • 16.6%
  • 33.9%
Mammal
  • 11.7%
  • 15.2%
  • 30.0%
  • 15.3%
  • 22.6%
  • 43.9%
Amphibian
  • 8.9%
  • 17.0%
  • 40.8%
  • 10.6%
  • 21.4%
  • 47.4%

Vulnerable species

Name Order Exposure

by 2010-2039   by 2040-2069

IUCN Red List category Sensitivity

to climate change

Adaptability

to climate change

Caprimulgus europaeus Caprimulgiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Low reproductive capacity
Falco peregrinus Falconiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Low genetic diversity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Himantopus himantopus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Lybius vieilloti Piciformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Pelecanus onocrotalus Pelecaniformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Tringa totanus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Anas crecca Anseriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Chelictinia riocourii Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
Ciconia nigra Ciconiiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Numenius arquata Charadriiformes
NT
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Rhinopomastus aterrimus Coraciiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Apus apus Apodiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Circus macrourus Falconiformes
NT
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Falco alopex Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
Falco subbuteo Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Anas acuta Anseriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Apus pallidus Apodiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Slow turnover of generations
Bucorvus abyssinicus Coraciiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Ciconia ciconia Ciconiiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Circus pygargus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Hieraaetus pennatus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Lymnocryptes minimus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Extrinsic barriers to dispersal
Tringa erythropus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Extrinsic barriers to dispersal
Circaetus gallicus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Tachymarptis melba Apodiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Upupa epops Coraciiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Circaetus beaudouini Falconiformes
VU
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Circus aeruginosus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Neophron percnopterus Falconiformes
EN
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Streptopelia turtur Columbiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Low reproductive capacity

The full description of the methodology used for this assessment can be downloaded here: Traits-based Vulnerability Assessments

Expected changes in climate suitability

Name By 2010-2039 By 2040-2069
Chelictinia riocourii
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Torgos tracheliotos
INC
INC
Falco alopex
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Ortyxelos meiffrenii
INC
INC
Accipiter erythropus
INC
INC
Glareola cinerea
INC
INC
Tachymarptis melba
NO CHANGE
INC
Struthio camelus
INC
INC
Ardeotis arabs
INC
INC
Streptopelia roseogrisea
INC
INC
Nectarinia chloropygia
INC
INC
Tauraco persa
INC
NO CHANGE
Campethera nivosa
NO CHANGE
INC
Cossypha cyanocampter
INC
INC
Nectarinia verticalis
INC
NO CHANGE
Glareola nuchalis
INC
NO CHANGE
Corvus ruficollis
INC
INC
Cursorius cursor
INC
INC
Turdoides fulva
INC
INC
Caprimulgus eximius
INC
INC
Bubo ascalaphus
NO CHANGE
INC
Accipiter melanoleucus
INC
INC
Accipiter ovampensis
INC
INC
Acrocephalus rufescens
INC
INC
Aenigmatolimnas marginalis
INC
INC
Agapornis pullarius
INC
NO CHANGE
Alaemon alaudipes
INC
INC
Alcedo quadribrachys
INC
NO CHANGE
Alopochen aegyptiaca
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Amandava subflava
INC
INC
Ammomanes deserti
INC
INC
Anaplectes rubriceps
INC
INC
Anas capensis
NO CHANGE
INC
Anas hottentota
INC
INC
Anas sparsa
INC
NO CHANGE
Anastomus lamelligerus
INC
INC
Anomalospiza imberbis
INC
NO CHANGE
Anthoscopus punctifrons
INC
INC
Anthreptes longuemarei
INC
INC
Anthreptes platurus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Anthus similis
INC
INC
Apus caffer
DEC
DEC
Aquila rapax
NO CHANGE
DEC
Aquila wahlbergi
INC
INC
Ardea melanocephala
NO CHANGE
DEC
Asio capensis
INC
INC
Aviceda cuculoides
INC
INC
Balaeniceps rex
INC
NO CHANGE
Balearica pavonina
INC
INC
Bubo africanus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Campethera cailliautii
INC
INC
Campethera maculosa
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Caprimulgus climacurus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Caprimulgus inornatus
INC
INC
Caprimulgus natalensis
NO CHANGE
INC
Caprimulgus tristigma
INC
NO CHANGE
Centropus monachus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Cercomela melanura
INC
NO CHANGE
Cercotrichas podobe
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Charadrius forbesi
INC
NO CHANGE
Charadrius marginatus
INC
NO CHANGE
Charadrius pecuarius
NO CHANGE
DEC
Chlorocichla flavicollis
INC
NO CHANGE
Chrysococcyx cupreus
INC
INC
Ciconia abdimii
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Ciconia episcopus
INC
INC
Circaetus cinereus
DEC
NO CHANGE
Cisticola aberrans
INC
INC
Cisticola aridulus
INC
INC
Cisticola erythrops
INC
INC
Cisticola galactotes
INC
INC
Cisticola guinea
INC
INC
Cisticola rufus
INC
INC
Columba guinea
NO CHANGE
DEC
Coracias cyanogaster
INC
INC
Coracina pectoralis
INC
INC
Corvus rhipidurus
INC
INC
Cossypha albicapilla
INC
INC
Coturnix delegorguei
INC
INC
Cuculus solitarius
INC
INC
Cypsiurus parvus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Dendropicos elachus
INC
INC
Dendropicos fuscescens
INC
INC
Dicrurus ludwigii
INC
NO CHANGE
Egretta ardesiaca
INC
INC
Egretta gularis
INC
INC
Emberiza striolata
INC
INC
Erythropygia galactotes
INC
INC
Estrilda astrild
INC
INC
Estrilda melpoda
INC
INC
Euplectes axillaris
NO CHANGE
INC
Euplectes hordeaceus
INC
INC
Euplectes macroura
INC
NO CHANGE
Eupodotis savilei
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Falco biarmicus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Francolinus albogularis
INC
INC
Francolinus clappertoni
INC
INC
Francolinus coqui
INC
INC
Gallinula angulata
INC
INC
Gorsachius leuconotus
INC
INC
Halcyon malimbica
INC
INC
Hieraaetus ayresii
NO CHANGE
INC
Hieraaetus spilogaster
NO CHANGE
DEC
Hippolais pallida
INC
INC
Hirundo aethiopica
INC
INC
Hirundo fuligula
INC
INC
Hylia prasina
INC
INC
Hyliota flavigaster
INC
INC
Lagonosticta rara
INC
NO CHANGE
Lagonosticta rubricata
INC
NO CHANGE
Lagonosticta rufopicta
INC
INC
Lamprotornis pulcher
NO CHANGE
DEC
Laniarius aethiopicus
INC
INC
Laniarius erythrogaster
NO CHANGE
INC
Lanius collaris
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Lanius excubitoroides
INC
INC
Lanius gubernator
INC
NO CHANGE
Leptoptilos crumeniferus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Lonchura cantans
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Lonchura fringilloides
NO CHANGE
INC
Melierax gabar
NO CHANGE
DEC
Melierax metabates
NO CHANGE
DEC
Melocichla mentalis
INC
INC
Merops albicollis
NO CHANGE
INC
Merops hirundineus
INC
INC
Mesopicos goertae
NO CHANGE
DEC
Mirafra africana
INC
INC
Mirafra albicauda
NO CHANGE
INC
Mirafra cantillans
INC
INC
Mirafra cordofanica
INC
INC
Motacilla aguimp
INC
INC
Muscicapa aquatica
INC
INC
Muscicapa gambagae
INC
INC
Musophaga violacea
INC
INC
Myioparus plumbeus
INC
NO CHANGE
Myrmecocichla aethiops
INC
INC
Necrosyrtes monachus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia coccinigaster
INC
INC
Nectarinia cuprea
INC
INC
Nectarinia venusta
NO CHANGE
INC
Neotis denhami
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Nesocharis capistrata
INC
NO CHANGE
Numida meleagris
INC
INC
Oenanthe heuglini
NO CHANGE
DEC
Onychognathus morio
INC
INC
Oriolus auratus
INC
INC
Ortygospiza atricollis
INC
INC
Otus leucotis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Pachycoccyx audeberti
INC
NO CHANGE
Passer luteus
INC
INC
Pelecanus rufescens
INC
INC
Petronia pyrgita
INC
INC
Phalacrocorax africanus
INC
INC
Phoenicopterus roseus
INC
INC
Platysteira cyanea
INC
NO CHANGE
Plegadis falcinellus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Ploceus nigricollis
INC
INC
Ploceus vitellinus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Podica senegalensis
INC
INC
Pogoniulus chrysoconus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Polyboroides typus
INC
INC
Prodotiscus regulus
NO CHANGE
INC
Psalidoprocne obscura
INC
INC
Psalidoprocne pristoptera
NO CHANGE
INC
Pseudhirundo griseopyga
INC
INC
Pterocles lichtensteinii
INC
INC
Pterocles quadricinctus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Pterocles senegallus
INC
INC
Pyrrhurus scandens
INC
NO CHANGE
Pytilia melba
INC
INC
Sagittarius serpentarius
DEC
DEC
Scotopelia peli
INC
INC
Serinus gularis
INC
INC
Serinus leucopygius
INC
INC
Spiloptila clamans
INC
INC
Sporopipes frontalis
INC
INC
Stephanoaetus coronatus
INC
INC
Strix woodfordii
NO CHANGE
INC
Tchagra minutus
NO CHANGE
INC
Thalassornis leuconotus
INC
INC
Thamnolaea cinnamomeiventris
INC
INC
Threskiornis aethiopicus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Tockus fasciatus
INC
NO CHANGE
Trachyphonus margaritatus
NO CHANGE
INC
Trigonoceps occipitalis
INC
INC
Uraeginthus bengalus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Urocolius macrourus
INC
INC
Vanellus crassirostris
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Vanellus spinosus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Vidua camerunensis
INC
INC
Vidua interjecta
INC
INC
Vidua larvaticola
INC
NO CHANGE
Vidua wilsoni
INC
NO CHANGE

The full description of the methodology used for this assessment can be downloaded here: Species Distribution Model