Climate change vulnerability assessments

The boundaries and names shown, and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations or IUCN

Name

Ahua

  • WDPA ID

    29580

  • Country

    CIV

  • IUCN category

    Not Reported

Ahua is among the top 75 protected areas assessed as being the most vulnerable to climate change by 2025 (with a 95% uncertainty level)

Species vulnerable to climate change

According to Traits-based Vulnerability Assessments (TVAs)

Vulnerable Species Total Species
Amphibian
0
31
Bird
80
379
Mammal
9
132
Total
89
542

16 % of bird, amphibian, and mammal species assessed are considered vulnerable to climate change

Expected species turnover

According to Species Distribution Models (SDMs)

Percentage of species turnover: Median (95% Confidence Interval)

by 2010-2039 by 2040-2069
Bird
  • 26.0%
  • 31.1%
  • 44.4%
  • 36.2%
  • 43.3%
  • 52.6%
Mammal
  • 25.6%
  • 33.5%
  • 45.6%
  • 38.5%
  • 44.5%
  • 62.7%
Amphibian
  • 27.9%
  • 41.8%
  • 58.3%
  • 42.2%
  • 54.7%
  • 76.8%

Vulnerable species

Name Order Exposure

by 2010-2039   by 2040-2069

IUCN Red List category Sensitivity

to climate change

Adaptability

to climate change

Caprimulgus europaeus Caprimulgiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Low reproductive capacity
Falco peregrinus Falconiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Low genetic diversity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Lybius vieilloti Piciformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Tringa totanus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Apus apus Apodiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Falco subbuteo Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Accipiter erythropus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Ciconia ciconia Ciconiiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Lymnocryptes minimus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Extrinsic barriers to dispersal
Tringa erythropus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Extrinsic barriers to dispersal
Tachymarptis melba Apodiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Circus aeruginosus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Elminia longicauda Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Cuculus canorus Cuculiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Nectarinia chloropygia Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Pernis apivorus Falconiformes
LC
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Psalidoprocne nitens Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Telacanthura ussheri Apodiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
Tauraco persa Cuculiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Bubo poensis Strigiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Bycanistes fistulator Coraciiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Pogoniulus subsulphureus Piciformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Pteronetta hartlaubii Anseriformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Tricholaema hirsuta Piciformes
LC
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Campethera nivosa Piciformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Declining positive interactions with other species
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Cossypha cyanocampter Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Nicator chloris Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Prodotiscus insignis Piciformes
LC
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Trochocercus nitens Passeriformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Andropadus gracilis Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Low reproductive capacity
Oriolus brachyrhynchus Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Stiphrornis erythrothorax Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Andropadus latirostris Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Baeopogon indicator Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Chlorocichla simplex Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Pogoniulus scolopaceus Piciformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Turtur brehmeri Columbiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Urotriorchis macrourus Falconiformes
LC
  • Habitat specialisation
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Bycanistes cylindricus Coraciiformes
VU
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Gymnobucco calvus Piciformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Pogoniulus bilineatus Piciformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Sylvietta virens Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Sarothrura pulchra Gruiformes
LC
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Smithornis rufolateralis Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Camaroptera chloronota Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Centropus leucogaster Cuculiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Columba iriditorques Columbiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Nectarinia verticalis Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Pogoniulus atroflavus Piciformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Bleda eximius Passeriformes
NT
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Low reproductive capacity
Phyllastrephus icterinus Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Scotopelia ussheri Strigiformes
VU
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Merops gularis Coraciiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Nectarinia superba Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Fraseria cinerascens Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Muscicapa epulata Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Nectarinia minulla Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Bubo leucostictus Strigiformes
LC
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Platysteira castanea Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Bias musicus Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Dryotriorchis spectabilis Falconiformes
LC
  • Habitat specialisation
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Muscicapa cassini Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Myioparus griseigularis Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Tauraco macrorhynchus Cuculiformes
LC
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Pholidornis rushiae Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Andropadus ansorgei Passeriformes
LC
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Low reproductive capacity
Anthreptes rectirostris Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Ceratogymna atrata Coraciiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Glareola nuchalis Charadriiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Muscicapa comitata Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Sylvietta denti Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Nectarinia seimundi Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Thescelocichla leucopleura Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Corythaeola cristata Cuculiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Illadopsis cleaveri Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Buccanodon duchaillui Piciformes
LC
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Gymnobucco peli Piciformes
LC
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Stizorhina fraseri Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Bostrychia olivacea Ciconiiformes
LC
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Slow turnover of generations
Buteo buteo Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations

The full description of the methodology used for this assessment can be downloaded here: Traits-based Vulnerability Assessments

Expected changes in climate suitability

Name By 2010-2039 By 2040-2069
Lybius vieilloti
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Chelictinia riocourii
INC
NO CHANGE
Rhinopomastus aterrimus
INC
INC
Torgos tracheliotos
INC
INC
Falco alopex
INC
INC
Bucorvus abyssinicus
INC
INC
Accipiter erythropus
DEC
DEC
Glareola cinerea
INC
INC
Struthio camelus
NO CHANGE
INC
Ardeotis arabs
INC
INC
Psalidoprocne nitens
DEC
DEC
Telacanthura ussheri
DEC
DEC
Bubo poensis
DEC
DEC
Bycanistes fistulator
DEC
DEC
Pogoniulus subsulphureus
DEC
DEC
Pteronetta hartlaubii
DEC
DEC
Tricholaema hirsuta
DEC
DEC
Campethera nivosa
DEC
DEC
Cossypha cyanocampter
DEC
DEC
Nicator chloris
DEC
DEC
Prodotiscus insignis
DEC
DEC
Psittacus erithacus
INC
INC
Trochocercus nitens
DEC
DEC
Andropadus gracilis
DEC
DEC
Oriolus brachyrhynchus
DEC
DEC
Stiphrornis erythrothorax
DEC
DEC
Andropadus latirostris
DEC
DEC
Baeopogon indicator
DEC
DEC
Chlorocichla simplex
DEC
DEC
Pogoniulus scolopaceus
DEC
DEC
Turtur brehmeri
DEC
DEC
Urotriorchis macrourus
DEC
DEC
Gymnobucco calvus
DEC
DEC
Pogoniulus bilineatus
DEC
DEC
Sylvietta virens
DEC
DEC
Sarothrura pulchra
DEC
DEC
Smithornis rufolateralis
DEC
DEC
Columba iriditorques
DEC
DEC
Criniger calurus
DEC
DEC
Nectarinia verticalis
DEC
DEC
Pogoniulus atroflavus
DEC
DEC
Phyllastrephus icterinus
DEC
DEC
Merops gularis
DEC
DEC
Nectarinia superba
DEC
NO CHANGE
Fraseria cinerascens
DEC
DEC
Muscicapa epulata
DEC
DEC
Muscicapa olivascens
DEC
DEC
Bubo leucostictus
DEC
DEC
Neafrapus cassini
DEC
DEC
Phyllastrephus albigularis
DEC
DEC
Platysteira castanea
DEC
DEC
Bias musicus
DEC
DEC
Dryotriorchis spectabilis
DEC
DEC
Muscicapa cassini
DEC
DEC
Myioparus griseigularis
DEC
DEC
Tauraco macrorhynchus
DEC
DEC
Pholidornis rushiae
DEC
DEC
Andropadus ansorgei
DEC
DEC
Glareola nuchalis
DEC
DEC
Illadopsis fulvescens
DEC
DEC
Muscicapa comitata
DEC
DEC
Nectarinia johannae
INC
INC
Telacanthura melanopygia
DEC
DEC
Nectarinia seimundi
DEC
DEC
Thescelocichla leucopleura
DEC
DEC
Columba unicincta
DEC
DEC
Corythaeola cristata
DEC
DEC
Illadopsis cleaveri
DEC
DEC
Nectarinia cyanolaema
INC
NO CHANGE
Bleda syndactylus
DEC
DEC
Buccanodon duchaillui
DEC
DEC
Gymnobucco peli
DEC
DEC
Ixonotus guttatus
INC
INC
Dicrurus atripennis
DEC
DEC
Lamprotornis splendidus
INC
INC
Corvus ruficollis
INC
INC
Bycanistes albotibialis
INC
INC
Apalis rufogularis
INC
NO CHANGE
Scotopelia bouvieri
INC
INC
Nectarinia rubescens
INC
NO CHANGE
Gyps rueppellii
INC
INC
Tockus camurus
DEC
DEC
Francolinus lathami
DEC
DEC
Uromanis tetradactyla
DEC
DEC
Lybius bidentatus
DEC
DEC
Phoeniculus castaneiceps
NO CHANGE
DEC
Tockus erythrorhynchus
INC
INC
Accipiter melanoleucus
DEC
DEC
Accipiter ovampensis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Accipiter tachiro
DEC
NO CHANGE
Acrocephalus rufescens
INC
INC
Aenigmatolimnas marginalis
INC
INC
Alcedo quadribrachys
DEC
DEC
Alethe diademata
DEC
DEC
Alethe poliocephala
DEC
DEC
Alopochen aegyptiaca
INC
INC
Amadina fasciata
NO CHANGE
INC
Amandava subflava
INC
INC
Amblyospiza albifrons
INC
INC
Anaplectes rubriceps
INC
INC
Anas hottentota
INC
INC
Anas sparsa
INC
INC
Anastomus lamelligerus
INC
INC
Andropadus curvirostris
DEC
DEC
Andropadus gracilirostris
DEC
DEC
Andropadus virens
DEC
DEC
Anomalospiza imberbis
INC
INC
Anthoscopus parvulus
INC
NO CHANGE
Anthreptes collaris
DEC
DEC
Anthreptes fraseri
DEC
DEC
Anthreptes gabonicus
DEC
DEC
Anthreptes longuemarei
INC
INC
Anthreptes platurus
INC
INC
Anthus leucophrys
NO CHANGE
DEC
Anthus similis
INC
INC
Apalis flavida
INC
INC
Apalis nigriceps
DEC
DEC
Apaloderma narina
INC
INC
Aquila africanus
DEC
DEC
Asio capensis
INC
INC
Aviceda cuculoides
DEC
DEC
Balaeniceps rex
NO CHANGE
INC
Balearica pavonina
INC
INC
Batis senegalensis
DEC
NO CHANGE
Bleda canicapillus
DEC
DEC
Buphagus africanus
INC
NO CHANGE
Burhinus senegalensis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Butastur rufipennis
INC
INC
Bycanistes subcylindricus
DEC
DEC
Calyptocichla serina
DEC
DEC
Camaroptera brachyura
DEC
DEC
Camaroptera superciliaris
DEC
DEC
Campephaga phoenicea
INC
INC
Campephaga quiscalina
DEC
DEC
Campethera abingoni
INC
NO CHANGE
Campethera cailliautii
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Campethera caroli
DEC
DEC
Campethera maculosa
DEC
DEC
Campethera punctuligera
DEC
DEC
Caprimulgus natalensis
INC
INC
Caprimulgus nigriscapularis
INC
NO CHANGE
Caprimulgus tristigma
INC
NO CHANGE
Centropus grillii
INC
INC
Ceratogymna elata
INC
NO CHANGE
Cercococcyx mechowi
DEC
DEC
Cercococcyx olivinus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Cercomela familiaris
INC
INC
Ceuthmochares aereus
DEC
NO CHANGE
Ceyx lecontei
DEC
DEC
Charadrius forbesi
DEC
DEC
Charadrius pecuarius
INC
INC
Chrysococcyx cupreus
DEC
DEC
Ciconia abdimii
INC
INC
Cinnyricinclus leucogaster
INC
INC
Cisticola aberrans
INC
INC
Cisticola aridulus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Cisticola brachypterus
DEC
DEC
Cisticola cantans
DEC
DEC
Cisticola erythrops
DEC
DEC
Cisticola eximius
INC
INC
Cisticola lateralis
DEC
DEC
Cisticola ruficeps
NO CHANGE
INC
Cisticola rufus
INC
INC
Cisticola troglodytes
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Clamator jacobinus
INC
INC
Clamator levaillantii
INC
INC
Columba guinea
INC
INC
Coracias cyanogaster
DEC
DEC
Coracias naevia
NO CHANGE
DEC
Coracina pectoralis
INC
NO CHANGE
Corvinella corvina
INC
INC
Corvus rhipidurus
NO CHANGE
INC
Cossypha albicapilla
INC
INC
Cossypha natalensis
NO CHANGE
INC
Cossypha niveicapilla
DEC
DEC
Cossypha polioptera
INC
NO CHANGE
Crecopsis egregia
DEC
DEC
Criniger barbatus
DEC
DEC
Cuculus clamosus
DEC
DEC
Cuculus solitarius
DEC
DEC
Cursorius temminckii
INC
INC
Dendropicos gabonensis
DEC
DEC
Dicrurus ludwigii
DEC
DEC
Drymocichla incana
NO CHANGE
INC
Dryoscopus sabini
DEC
DEC
Emberiza affinis
INC
INC
Emberiza flaviventris
INC
INC
Emberiza tahapisi
INC
INC
Ephippiorhynchus senegalensis
INC
INC
Eremomela badiceps
DEC
DEC
Eremomela icteropygialis
INC
INC
Eremomela pusilla
INC
INC
Eremopterix leucotis
INC
INC
Erythropygia galactotes
NO CHANGE
INC
Erythropygia leucosticta
DEC
DEC
Estrilda troglodytes
INC
INC
Euplectes afer
INC
INC
Euplectes ardens
DEC
DEC
Euplectes franciscanus
INC
INC
Euplectes hordeaceus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Euplectes macroura
INC
INC
Eupodotis senegalensis
INC
INC
Eurystomus gularis
DEC
DEC
Euschistospiza dybowskii
INC
NO CHANGE
Falco ardosiaceus
DEC
NO CHANGE
Falco biarmicus
INC
INC
Falco chicquera
INC
INC
Falco cuvierii
DEC
DEC
Francolinus ahantensis
DEC
DEC
Francolinus clappertoni
INC
INC
Francolinus coqui
INC
INC
Francolinus squamatus
INC
NO CHANGE
Fraseria ocreata
DEC
DEC
Galerida modesta
INC
INC
Glaucidium perlatum
INC
INC
Glaucidium tephronotum
NO CHANGE
DEC
Guttera pucherani
DEC
DEC
Gypohierax angolensis
DEC
DEC
Gyps africanus
INC
INC
Halcyon badia
DEC
DEC
Halcyon malimbica
DEC
DEC
Haliaeetus vocifer
INC
INC
Heliolais erythropterus
DEC
DEC
Hieraaetus spilogaster
INC
INC
Himantornis haematopus
DEC
DEC
Hirundo abyssinica
DEC
NO CHANGE
Hirundo aethiopica
INC
INC
Hirundo fuligula
INC
INC
Hirundo leucosoma
INC
INC
Hirundo nigrita
DEC
DEC
Hirundo preussi
INC
INC
Hyliota flavigaster
INC
INC
Illadopsis puveli
DEC
DEC
Indicator exilis
DEC
DEC
Indicator indicator
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Indicator maculatus
DEC
DEC
Indicator minor
DEC
DEC
Indicator willcocksi
DEC
DEC
Jubula lettii
DEC
DEC
Lagonosticta larvata
INC
NO CHANGE
Lagonosticta rara
DEC
DEC
Lagonosticta rhodopareia
INC
INC
Lagonosticta rubricata
DEC
DEC
Lagonosticta rufopicta
INC
INC
Lagonosticta senegala
INC
INC
Lamprotornis chalcurus
INC
INC
Lamprotornis chloropterus
DEC
NO CHANGE
Laniarius aethiopicus
DEC
DEC
Laniarius barbarus
INC
NO CHANGE
Laniarius leucorhynchus
DEC
DEC
Lanius collaris
INC
INC
Lanius gubernator
INC
INC
Leptoptilos crumeniferus
INC
INC
Lonchura bicolor
DEC
NO CHANGE
Lonchura cantans
INC
INC
Lonchura cucullata
DEC
DEC
Lonchura fringilloides
INC
INC
Macheiramphus alcinus
DEC
DEC
Macrodipteryx longipennis
DEC
DEC
Macrosphenus concolor
NO CHANGE
DEC
Macrosphenus kempi
DEC
DEC
Malaconotus blanchoti
INC
INC
Malaconotus cruentus
DEC
DEC
Malimbus malimbicus
DEC
DEC
Malimbus nitens
DEC
DEC
Malimbus scutatus
DEC
DEC
Mandingoa nitidula
INC
NO CHANGE
Megabyas flammulatus
DEC
DEC
Megaceryle maxima
DEC
DEC
Melaenornis edolioides
INC
NO CHANGE
Melichneutes robustus
INC
NO CHANGE
Melocichla mentalis
INC
NO CHANGE
Merops bulocki
INC
INC
Merops mentalis
INC
NO CHANGE
Merops nubicus
NO CHANGE
INC
Mirafra africana
INC
INC
Mirafra cantillans
INC
INC
Motacilla aguimp
DEC
DEC
Motacilla clara
INC
INC
Muscicapa aquatica
INC
NO CHANGE
Muscicapa gambagae
INC
INC
Myioparus plumbeus
DEC
DEC
Myrmecocichla albifrons
INC
NO CHANGE
Necrosyrtes monachus
INC
INC
Nectarinia adelberti
DEC
DEC
Nectarinia coccinigaster
DEC
DEC
Nectarinia olivacea
DEC
DEC
Nectarinia pulchella
INC
INC
Nectarinia senegalensis
INC
INC
Nectarinia venusta
INC
INC
Neocossyphus poensis
DEC
DEC
Neotis denhami
INC
INC
Nigrita canicapillus
DEC
DEC
Nigrita fusconotus
INC
INC
Nilaus afer
INC
INC
Numida meleagris
INC
INC
Oenanthe heuglini
INC
INC
Onychognathus fulgidus
DEC
DEC
Onychognathus morio
NO CHANGE
INC
Oriolus auratus
NO CHANGE
INC
Oriolus nigripennis
DEC
DEC
Ortygospiza atricollis
INC
INC
Parus funereus
INC
NO CHANGE
Pelecanus rufescens
INC
INC
Petronia dentata
INC
INC
Petronia pyrgita
INC
INC
Phoenicopterus roseus
INC
INC
Phoeniculus bollei
DEC
DEC
Phoeniculus purpureus
INC
INC
Phyllanthus atripennis
DEC
DEC
Pinarocorys erythropygia
INC
INC
Pitta angolensis
INC
NO CHANGE
Platysteira blissetti
DEC
DEC
Plectropterus gambensis
DEC
DEC
Plegadis falcinellus
INC
INC
Plocepasser superciliosus
INC
INC
Ploceus heuglini
DEC
DEC
Ploceus luteolus
NO CHANGE
INC
Ploceus nigerrimus
INC
INC
Ploceus vitellinus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Poicephalus senegalus
DEC
NO CHANGE
Polemaetus bellicosus
INC
INC
Prinia subflava
DEC
DEC
Prionops plumatus
INC
INC
Psalidoprocne obscura
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Psalidoprocne pristoptera
INC
INC
Pseudhirundo griseopyga
INC
INC
Pterocles lichtensteinii
INC
INC
Pterocles quadricinctus
INC
INC
Ptilopachus petrosus
INC
NO CHANGE
Ptilostomus afer
INC
INC
Pyrenestes ostrinus
DEC
DEC
Pyrenestes sanguineus
DEC
NO CHANGE
Pyrrhurus scandens
DEC
DEC
Pytilia hypogrammica
INC
NO CHANGE
Pytilia melba
INC
INC
Pytilia phoenicoptera
INC
INC
Rhaphidura sabini
DEC
DEC
Rynchops flavirostris
INC
INC
Sagittarius serpentarius
INC
INC
Sarothrura elegans
INC
NO CHANGE
Schoenicola brevirostris
INC
INC
Serinus gularis
INC
INC
Serinus leucopygius
INC
INC
Smithornis capensis
DEC
DEC
Spermophaga haematina
DEC
NO CHANGE
Sporopipes frontalis
NO CHANGE
INC
Stigmatopelia senegalensis
INC
INC
Streptopelia decipiens
INC
INC
Streptopelia vinacea
INC
INC
Tchagra australis
DEC
DEC
Tchagra minutus
INC
NO CHANGE
Telophorus multicolor
DEC
DEC
Telophorus sulfureopectus
INC
INC
Terathopius ecaudatus
INC
INC
Thalassornis leuconotus
INC
INC
Thamnolaea cinnamomeiventris
INC
INC
Thripias pyrrhogaster
DEC
DEC
Tockus fasciatus
DEC
DEC
Tockus hartlaubi
DEC
DEC
Trachyphonus purpuratus
DEC
DEC
Treron calvus
DEC
DEC
Treron waalia
INC
INC
Trigonoceps occipitalis
INC
INC
Tropicranus albocristatus
DEC
DEC
Turdoides plebejus
DEC
DEC
Turdoides reinwardii
INC
NO CHANGE
Turnix hottentottus
INC
NO CHANGE
Turtur abyssinicus
NO CHANGE
INC
Turtur tympanistria
DEC
DEC
Uraeginthus bengalus
INC
INC
Vanellus senegallus
INC
INC
Vanellus tectus
INC
INC
Vidua camerunensis
INC
INC
Vidua chalybeata
INC
INC
Vidua interjecta
INC
NO CHANGE
Vidua larvaticola
INC
NO CHANGE
Vidua paradisaea
INC
INC
Vidua togoensis
INC
NO CHANGE
Vidua wilsoni
INC
NO CHANGE
Zoothera princei
DEC
DEC
Zosterops senegalensis
INC
INC

The full description of the methodology used for this assessment can be downloaded here: Species Distribution Model