Climate change vulnerability assessments

The boundaries and names shown, and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations or IUCN

Name

Forest Reserve Name Unknown NGA No43

  • WDPA ID

    300736

  • Country

    NGA

  • IUCN category

    Not Reported

Species vulnerable to climate change

According to Traits-based Vulnerability Assessments (TVAs)

Vulnerable Species Total Species
Amphibian
3
28
Bird
41
384
Mammal
3
97
Total
47
509

9 % of bird, amphibian, and mammal species assessed are considered vulnerable to climate change

Expected species turnover

According to Species Distribution Models (SDMs)

Percentage of species turnover: Median (95% Confidence Interval)

by 2010-2039 by 2040-2069
Bird
  • 9.7%
  • 12.8%
  • 16.2%
  • 12.1%
  • 16.4%
  • 21.0%
Mammal
  • 11.1%
  • 13.5%
  • 17.2%
  • 12.2%
  • 16.0%
  • 19.0%
Amphibian
  • 8.7%
  • 13.3%
  • 18.5%
  • 10.9%
  • 16.7%
  • 25.1%

Vulnerable species

Name Order Exposure

by 2010-2039   by 2040-2069

IUCN Red List category Sensitivity

to climate change

Adaptability

to climate change

Caprimulgus europaeus Caprimulgiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Low reproductive capacity
Falco peregrinus Falconiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Low genetic diversity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Himantopus himantopus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Lybius vieilloti Piciformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Pelecanus onocrotalus Pelecaniformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Tringa totanus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Chelictinia riocourii Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
Ciconia nigra Ciconiiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Rhinopomastus aterrimus Coraciiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Torgos tracheliotos Falconiformes
VU
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Apus apus Apodiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Circus macrourus Falconiformes
NT
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Falco alopex Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
Falco subbuteo Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Anas acuta Anseriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Apus pallidus Apodiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Slow turnover of generations
Bucorvus abyssinicus Coraciiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Ciconia ciconia Ciconiiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Circus pygargus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Glareola cinerea Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Hieraaetus pennatus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Lymnocryptes minimus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Extrinsic barriers to dispersal
Tringa erythropus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Extrinsic barriers to dispersal
Circaetus gallicus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Tachymarptis melba Apodiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Upupa epops Coraciiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Circaetus beaudouini Falconiformes
VU
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Circus aeruginosus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Neophron percnopterus Falconiformes
EN
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Elminia longicauda Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Lybius leucocephalus Piciformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Recurvirostra avosetta Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Pernis apivorus Falconiformes
LC
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Telacanthura ussheri Apodiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
Tauraco persa Cuculiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Pogoniulus bilineatus Piciformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Sarothrura pulchra Gruiformes
LC
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Nectarinia verticalis Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Fraseria cinerascens Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Glareola nuchalis Charadriiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Thescelocichla leucopleura Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity

The full description of the methodology used for this assessment can be downloaded here: Traits-based Vulnerability Assessments

Expected changes in climate suitability

Name By 2010-2039 By 2040-2069
Ortyxelos meiffrenii
INC
INC
Accipiter erythropus
INC
NO CHANGE
Circaetus beaudouini
INC
INC
Struthio camelus
INC
INC
Ardeotis arabs
NO CHANGE
INC
Streptopelia roseogrisea
INC
INC
Nectarinia chloropygia
INC
INC
Psalidoprocne nitens
INC
INC
Telacanthura ussheri
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Elminia nigromitrata
INC
INC
Merops malimbicus
INC
INC
Bubo poensis
INC
INC
Pogoniulus subsulphureus
INC
INC
Pteronetta hartlaubii
INC
INC
Tricholaema hirsuta
NO CHANGE
INC
Campethera nivosa
INC
INC
Cossypha cyanocampter
INC
INC
Nicator chloris
INC
INC
Prodotiscus insignis
INC
INC
Trochocercus nitens
NO CHANGE
INC
Andropadus gracilis
INC
INC
Bostrychia rara
INC
NO CHANGE
Oriolus brachyrhynchus
INC
INC
Andropadus latirostris
INC
INC
Chlorocichla simplex
INC
INC
Pogoniulus scolopaceus
INC
INC
Turtur brehmeri
INC
INC
Urotriorchis macrourus
INC
NO CHANGE
Gymnobucco calvus
INC
INC
Pogoniulus bilineatus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Sylvietta virens
NO CHANGE
INC
Smithornis rufolateralis
NO CHANGE
INC
Camaroptera chloronota
INC
INC
Columba iriditorques
INC
INC
Criniger calurus
INC
INC
Pogoniulus atroflavus
INC
INC
Phyllastrephus icterinus
INC
NO CHANGE
Merops gularis
INC
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia superba
INC
INC
Nectarinia minulla
INC
NO CHANGE
Bubo leucostictus
INC
INC
Platysteira castanea
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Bias musicus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Dryotriorchis spectabilis
INC
INC
Muscicapa cassini
INC
INC
Myioparus griseigularis
INC
NO CHANGE
Tauraco macrorhynchus
INC
NO CHANGE
Pholidornis rushiae
INC
INC
Andropadus ansorgei
INC
NO CHANGE
Anthreptes rectirostris
NO CHANGE
INC
Illadopsis fulvescens
INC
INC
Muscicapa comitata
INC
INC
Nectarinia johannae
INC
INC
Sylvietta denti
NO CHANGE
INC
Nectarinia seimundi
INC
INC
Columba unicincta
INC
INC
Corythaeola cristata
INC
INC
Nectarinia cyanolaema
INC
INC
Bleda syndactylus
INC
NO CHANGE
Buccanodon duchaillui
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Ixonotus guttatus
INC
INC
Stizorhina fraseri
NO CHANGE
INC
Illadopsis rufipennis
NO CHANGE
INC
Sheppardia cyornithopsis
INC
NO CHANGE
Bostrychia olivacea
INC
NO CHANGE
Lamprotornis splendidus
INC
INC
Corvus ruficollis
NO CHANGE
INC
Tachymarptis aequatorialis
INC
INC
Bycanistes albotibialis
INC
INC
Apalis rufogularis
INC
INC
Scotopelia bouvieri
INC
INC
Accipiter castanilius
INC
NO CHANGE
Dryoscopus senegalensis
NO CHANGE
INC
Nectarinia bouvieri
INC
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia rubescens
INC
INC
Prinia leucopogon
NO CHANGE
INC
Bleda notatus
INC
NO CHANGE
Francolinus lathami
INC
INC
Uromanis tetradactyla
INC
INC
Tigriornis leucolopha
INC
INC
Accipiter melanoleucus
INC
INC
Accipiter ovampensis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Accipiter tachiro
INC
INC
Acrocephalus gracilirostris
NO CHANGE
INC
Acrocephalus rufescens
INC
INC
Aenigmatolimnas marginalis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Alcedo leucogaster
INC
INC
Alethe castanea
INC
NO CHANGE
Alethe diademata
INC
INC
Alethe poliocephala
INC
INC
Amadina fasciata
INC
INC
Anas hottentota
INC
INC
Anas sparsa
INC
INC
Anastomus lamelligerus
DEC
NO CHANGE
Andropadus curvirostris
INC
INC
Andropadus gracilirostris
INC
INC
Andropadus virens
INC
INC
Anthreptes collaris
NO CHANGE
DEC
Anthreptes fraseri
INC
INC
Anthreptes gabonicus
INC
INC
Anthreptes platurus
INC
INC
Anthus similis
INC
INC
Apalis jacksoni
INC
NO CHANGE
Apalis nigriceps
INC
NO CHANGE
Apalis sharpii
INC
INC
Aplopelia larvata
NO CHANGE
INC
Apus horus
INC
NO CHANGE
Aquila africanus
INC
INC
Aquila wahlbergi
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Asio capensis
INC
INC
Aviceda cuculoides
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Balaeniceps rex
INC
INC
Balearica pavonina
INC
INC
Batis erlangeri
NO CHANGE
INC
Bleda canicapillus
INC
INC
Bradypterus baboecala
INC
INC
Burhinus senegalensis
INC
INC
Butastur rufipennis
INC
INC
Bycanistes subcylindricus
INC
INC
Calandrella cinerea
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Calyptocichla serina
INC
NO CHANGE
Camaroptera superciliaris
NO CHANGE
INC
Campephaga phoenicea
INC
NO CHANGE
Campephaga quiscalina
NO CHANGE
DEC
Campethera cailliautii
INC
INC
Campethera caroli
NO CHANGE
INC
Caprimulgus inornatus
NO CHANGE
INC
Caprimulgus natalensis
INC
INC
Caprimulgus tristigma
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Centropus monachus
INC
INC
Centropus senegalensis
INC
INC
Ceratogymna elata
INC
INC
Cercococcyx mechowi
INC
INC
Cercomela familiaris
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Ceuthmochares aereus
NO CHANGE
INC
Ceyx lecontei
INC
INC
Charadrius marginatus
INC
INC
Charadrius pecuarius
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Chloropeta natalensis
NO CHANGE
INC
Circaetus cinerascens
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Cisticola aridulus
NO CHANGE
INC
Cisticola eximius
INC
NO CHANGE
Cisticola guinea
INC
INC
Cisticola lateralis
INC
INC
Cisticola robustus
INC
INC
Cisticola ruficeps
INC
INC
Cisticola rufus
INC
INC
Cisticola troglodytes
INC
INC
Clamator jacobinus
DEC
DEC
Clytospiza monteiri
NO CHANGE
INC
Colius striatus
INC
INC
Coracias naevia
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Coracina azurea
INC
INC
Coracina pectoralis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Corvus rhipidurus
INC
INC
Cossypha natalensis
INC
INC
Cossypha niveicapilla
INC
NO CHANGE
Cossypha polioptera
INC
INC
Coturnix delegorguei
INC
INC
Cursorius temminckii
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Dendropicos fuscescens
NO CHANGE
DEC
Dendropicos gabonensis
NO CHANGE
INC
Dendropicos poecilolaemus
NO CHANGE
INC
Dicrurus ludwigii
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Drymocichla incana
INC
INC
Egretta ardesiaca
INC
INC
Egretta gularis
INC
INC
Emberiza cabanisi
INC
INC
Emberiza flaviventris
INC
INC
Empidornis semipartitus
NO CHANGE
INC
Ephippiorhynchus senegalensis
DEC
DEC
Eremomela badiceps
INC
INC
Eremomela icteropygialis
INC
INC
Eremomela pusilla
INC
NO CHANGE
Erythrocercus mccallii
INC
INC
Erythropygia galactotes
INC
INC
Erythropygia leucosticta
INC
INC
Estrilda astrild
NO CHANGE
INC
Euplectes afer
INC
INC
Euplectes ardens
NO CHANGE
DEC
Falco ardosiaceus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Falco biarmicus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Falco chicquera
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Francolinus ahantensis
INC
INC
Francolinus clappertoni
INC
INC
Francolinus coqui
INC
INC
Francolinus icterorhynchus
INC
INC
Francolinus squamatus
DEC
DEC
Fraseria ocreata
INC
INC
Glaucidium tephronotum
INC
NO CHANGE
Guttera pucherani
INC
INC
Halcyon chelicuti
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Hieraaetus ayresii
INC
INC
Himantornis haematopus
INC
INC
Hirundo abyssinica
DEC
DEC
Hirundo lucida
INC
INC
Hirundo nigrita
INC
INC
Hirundo senegalensis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Hylia prasina
INC
INC
Hyliota violacea
INC
INC
Illadopsis puveli
INC
INC
Indicator exilis
INC
INC
Indicator indicator
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Indicator maculatus
INC
NO CHANGE
Jynx ruficollis
NO CHANGE
INC
Lagonosticta rara
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Lagonosticta rhodopareia
INC
INC
Lagonosticta rubricata
NO CHANGE
DEC
Lamprotornis chalybaeus
INC
INC
Lamprotornis purpureus
INC
INC
Laniarius aethiopicus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Laniarius erythrogaster
INC
INC
Laniarius leucorhynchus
INC
INC
Lanius collaris
INC
INC
Lanius gubernator
INC
INC
Leptoptilos crumeniferus
INC
INC
Lonchura bicolor
INC
INC
Lonchura fringilloides
INC
INC
Macheiramphus alcinus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Macrosphenus concolor
INC
INC
Macrosphenus kempi
NO CHANGE
INC
Malaconotus cruentus
INC
INC
Malimbus nitens
INC
INC
Malimbus rubricollis
NO CHANGE
INC
Malimbus scutatus
INC
INC
Mandingoa nitidula
INC
INC
Megabyas flammulatus
INC
INC
Melaenornis edolioides
INC
NO CHANGE
Melichneutes robustus
INC
INC
Melocichla mentalis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Merops bulocki
NO CHANGE
INC
Merops hirundineus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Merops mentalis
NO CHANGE
INC
Merops pusillus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Merops variegatus
NO CHANGE
INC
Mesopicos goertae
INC
INC
Microparra capensis
INC
INC
Mirafra africana
DEC
DEC
Mirafra cantillans
INC
INC
Mirafra rufocinnamomea
NO CHANGE
DEC
Motacilla aguimp
INC
INC
Motacilla clara
NO CHANGE
INC
Muscicapa caerulescens
INC
INC
Muscicapa infuscata
INC
NO CHANGE
Myrmecocichla nigra
NO CHANGE
INC
Necrosyrtes monachus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia olivacea
INC
INC
Neocossyphus poensis
INC
INC
Nigrita bicolor
NO CHANGE
INC
Nigrita canicapillus
NO CHANGE
INC
Nigrita fusconotus
NO CHANGE
INC
Nigrita luteifrons
INC
INC
Numida meleagris
NO CHANGE
DEC
Oena capensis
INC
INC
Oenanthe heuglini
INC
INC
Onychognathus fulgidus
NO CHANGE
INC
Onychognathus morio
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Oriolus nigripennis
NO CHANGE
INC
Otus leucotis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Pachycoccyx audeberti
INC
INC
Pelecanus rufescens
INC
INC
Petronia dentata
INC
NO CHANGE
Petronia pyrgita
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Phoenicopterus roseus
INC
INC
Phyllanthus atripennis
INC
INC
Phyllolais pulchella
INC
INC
Pitta angolensis
NO CHANGE
INC
Platysteira blissetti
INC
INC
Platysteira cyanea
INC
NO CHANGE
Plegadis falcinellus
INC
INC
Ploceus bicolor
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Ploceus luteolus
INC
INC
Ploceus melanocephalus
INC
INC
Ploceus nigerrimus
INC
INC
Ploceus superciliosus
INC
INC
Ploceus vitellinus
INC
INC
Pluvianus aegyptius
INC
INC
Poeoptera lugubris
INC
NO CHANGE
Poicephalus robustus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Polemaetus bellicosus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Prinia bairdii
INC
NO CHANGE
Prinia subflava
NO CHANGE
DEC
Prionops caniceps
INC
INC
Prodotiscus regulus
INC
INC
Psalidoprocne pristoptera
INC
INC
Pterocles lichtensteinii
NO CHANGE
INC
Pterocles quadricinctus
INC
INC
Pytilia hypogrammica
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Pytilia melba
INC
INC
Quelea quelea
INC
INC
Rallus caerulescens
INC
INC
Sagittarius serpentarius
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Sarothrura elegans
NO CHANGE
INC
Schoenicola brevirostris
INC
INC
Serinus leucopygius
INC
INC
Serinus mozambicus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Spermophaga haematina
INC
INC
Stephanoaetus coronatus
INC
INC
Streptopelia semitorquata
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Streptopelia vinacea
INC
NO CHANGE
Sylvietta brachyura
INC
INC
Tauraco leucolophus
INC
INC
Tchagra australis
NO CHANGE
INC
Tchagra minutus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Telophorus multicolor
INC
INC
Telophorus sulfureopectus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Terathopius ecaudatus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Thalassornis leuconotus
INC
INC
Thamnolaea cinnamomeiventris
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Thripias pyrrhogaster
NO CHANGE
INC
Tockus fasciatus
INC
INC
Tockus hartlaubi
INC
INC
Trachyphonus purpuratus
NO CHANGE
INC
Treron calvus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Turnix hottentottus
INC
NO CHANGE
Turtur abyssinicus
INC
INC
Turtur tympanistria
INC
INC
Urocolius macrourus
INC
INC
Vanellus crassirostris
INC
INC
Vanellus lugubris
NO CHANGE
INC
Vanellus superciliosus
INC
INC
Vanellus tectus
INC
INC
Vidua paradisaea
INC
INC
Vidua togoensis
INC
INC

The full description of the methodology used for this assessment can be downloaded here: Species Distribution Model