Climate change vulnerability assessments

The boundaries and names shown, and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations or IUCN

Name

Classified Forest Name Unknown CIV No13

  • WDPA ID

    300787

  • Country

    CIV

  • IUCN category

    Not Reported

Species vulnerable to climate change

According to Traits-based Vulnerability Assessments (TVAs)

Vulnerable Species Total Species
Amphibian
4
27
Bird
38
347
Mammal
4
110
Total
46
484

9 % of bird, amphibian, and mammal species assessed are considered vulnerable to climate change

Expected species turnover

According to Species Distribution Models (SDMs)

Percentage of species turnover: Median (95% Confidence Interval)

by 2010-2039 by 2040-2069
Bird
  • 11.1%
  • 14.2%
  • 31.3%
  • 15.4%
  • 22.8%
  • 40.8%
Mammal
  • 10.7%
  • 15.1%
  • 29.6%
  • 15.3%
  • 25.3%
  • 35.8%
Amphibian
  • 10.1%
  • 15.4%
  • 41.3%
  • 15.2%
  • 29.6%
  • 54.9%

Vulnerable species

Name Order Exposure

by 2010-2039   by 2040-2069

IUCN Red List category Sensitivity

to climate change

Adaptability

to climate change

Caprimulgus europaeus Caprimulgiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Low reproductive capacity
Falco peregrinus Falconiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Low genetic diversity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Himantopus himantopus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Lybius vieilloti Piciformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Tringa totanus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Chelictinia riocourii Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
Rhinopomastus aterrimus Coraciiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Apus apus Apodiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Circus macrourus Falconiformes
NT
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Falco alopex Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
Falco subbuteo Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Apus pallidus Apodiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Slow turnover of generations
Bucorvus abyssinicus Coraciiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Accipiter erythropus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Ciconia ciconia Ciconiiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Circus pygargus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Hieraaetus pennatus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Lymnocryptes minimus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Extrinsic barriers to dispersal
Tachymarptis melba Apodiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Upupa epops Coraciiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Circus aeruginosus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Elminia longicauda Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Cuculus canorus Cuculiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Pernis apivorus Falconiformes
LC
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Psalidoprocne nitens Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Telacanthura ussheri Apodiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
Tauraco persa Cuculiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Pteronetta hartlaubii Anseriformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Nicator chloris Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Prodotiscus insignis Piciformes
LC
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Chlorocichla simplex Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Pogoniulus bilineatus Piciformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Camaroptera chloronota Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Centropus leucogaster Cuculiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Nectarinia verticalis Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Nectarinia minulla Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Thescelocichla leucopleura Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Merops apiaster Coraciiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations

The full description of the methodology used for this assessment can be downloaded here: Traits-based Vulnerability Assessments

Expected changes in climate suitability

Name By 2010-2039 By 2040-2069
Chelictinia riocourii
INC
INC
Torgos tracheliotos
INC
INC
Glareola cinerea
INC
INC
Struthio camelus
INC
INC
Ardeotis arabs
NO CHANGE
INC
Streptopelia roseogrisea
NO CHANGE
INC
Nectarinia chloropygia
INC
INC
Psalidoprocne nitens
DEC
DEC
Telacanthura ussheri
NO CHANGE
DEC
Elminia nigromitrata
INC
NO CHANGE
Bubo poensis
INC
NO CHANGE
Bycanistes fistulator
INC
INC
Pogoniulus subsulphureus
INC
NO CHANGE
Pteronetta hartlaubii
NO CHANGE
DEC
Tricholaema hirsuta
DEC
DEC
Campethera nivosa
INC
INC
Cossypha cyanocampter
INC
INC
Prodotiscus insignis
DEC
DEC
Trochocercus nitens
INC
NO CHANGE
Andropadus gracilis
INC
INC
Oriolus brachyrhynchus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Stiphrornis erythrothorax
INC
NO CHANGE
Andropadus latirostris
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Baeopogon indicator
DEC
DEC
Chlorocichla simplex
DEC
DEC
Pogoniulus scolopaceus
INC
INC
Turtur brehmeri
INC
NO CHANGE
Gymnobucco calvus
INC
NO CHANGE
Pogoniulus bilineatus
DEC
DEC
Sylvietta virens
INC
INC
Sarothrura pulchra
INC
INC
Smithornis rufolateralis
INC
NO CHANGE
Columba iriditorques
INC
INC
Criniger calurus
INC
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia verticalis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Pogoniulus atroflavus
INC
INC
Phyllastrephus icterinus
INC
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia superba
INC
INC
Fraseria cinerascens
INC
INC
Phyllastrephus albigularis
INC
NO CHANGE
Platysteira castanea
DEC
DEC
Muscicapa cassini
DEC
DEC
Anthreptes rectirostris
INC
INC
Glareola nuchalis
INC
INC
Illadopsis fulvescens
INC
INC
Muscicapa comitata
DEC
DEC
Nectarinia johannae
INC
NO CHANGE
Sylvietta denti
INC
INC
Nectarinia seimundi
INC
NO CHANGE
Corythaeola cristata
INC
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia cyanolaema
INC
NO CHANGE
Buccanodon duchaillui
INC
NO CHANGE
Ixonotus guttatus
INC
INC
Lamprotornis splendidus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Corvus ruficollis
NO CHANGE
INC
Bycanistes albotibialis
INC
NO CHANGE
Scotopelia bouvieri
INC
INC
Gyps rueppellii
INC
INC
Francolinus lathami
INC
NO CHANGE
Lybius bidentatus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Phoeniculus castaneiceps
INC
NO CHANGE
Tockus erythrorhynchus
INC
INC
Accipiter ovampensis
DEC
DEC
Accipiter tachiro
INC
INC
Acrocephalus rufescens
INC
INC
Agapornis pullarius
INC
INC
Alcedo leucogaster
INC
INC
Alethe diademata
INC
INC
Alethe poliocephala
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Amadina fasciata
INC
INC
Amandava subflava
NO CHANGE
DEC
Amblyospiza albifrons
DEC
NO CHANGE
Anaplectes rubriceps
INC
INC
Anas hottentota
INC
INC
Anas sparsa
INC
INC
Anastomus lamelligerus
INC
INC
Andropadus curvirostris
INC
NO CHANGE
Andropadus gracilirostris
INC
INC
Andropadus virens
DEC
DEC
Anhinga rufa
INC
INC
Anomalospiza imberbis
INC
INC
Anthoscopus punctifrons
NO CHANGE
INC
Anthreptes collaris
INC
INC
Anthreptes fraseri
DEC
DEC
Anthreptes longuemarei
NO CHANGE
DEC
Anthreptes platurus
INC
INC
Anthus leucophrys
NO CHANGE
DEC
Anthus similis
INC
INC
Apalis flavida
NO CHANGE
DEC
Apaloderma narina
INC
INC
Aplopelia larvata
INC
NO CHANGE
Asio capensis
INC
INC
Aviceda cuculoides
DEC
DEC
Balaeniceps rex
INC
INC
Balearica pavonina
INC
INC
Bleda canicapillus
DEC
DEC
Bradornis pallidus
DEC
DEC
Bubalornis albirostris
INC
INC
Burhinus capensis
INC
INC
Burhinus vermiculatus
INC
NO CHANGE
Butastur rufipennis
INC
INC
Bycanistes subcylindricus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Camaroptera superciliaris
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Campethera abingoni
INC
INC
Campethera cailliautii
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Campethera caroli
INC
NO CHANGE
Campethera maculosa
INC
INC
Caprimulgus inornatus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Caprimulgus natalensis
INC
INC
Caprimulgus nigriscapularis
INC
INC
Caprimulgus tristigma
NO CHANGE
DEC
Centropus grillii
INC
INC
Cercomela familiaris
NO CHANGE
DEC
Ceuthmochares aereus
INC
NO CHANGE
Ceyx lecontei
INC
NO CHANGE
Charadrius forbesi
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Charadrius marginatus
INC
INC
Chrysococcyx cupreus
DEC
DEC
Circaetus cinerascens
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Circaetus cinereus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Cisticola aberrans
NO CHANGE
DEC
Cisticola aridulus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Cisticola brachypterus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Cisticola cantans
NO CHANGE
DEC
Cisticola erythrops
NO CHANGE
DEC
Cisticola guinea
INC
INC
Cisticola lateralis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Cisticola ruficeps
NO CHANGE
INC
Cisticola rufus
INC
INC
Cisticola troglodytes
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Clamator glandarius
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Clamator jacobinus
INC
INC
Coracias abyssinicus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Coracias cyanogaster
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Coracias naevia
NO CHANGE
DEC
Coracina azurea
INC
NO CHANGE
Coracina pectoralis
INC
INC
Corvus rhipidurus
INC
INC
Cossypha albicapilla
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Cossypha polioptera
INC
NO CHANGE
Crecopsis egregia
DEC
DEC
Criniger barbatus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Cuculus clamosus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Cuculus solitarius
DEC
DEC
Cursorius temminckii
DEC
DEC
Dendropicos fuscescens
DEC
DEC
Dendropicos gabonensis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Dicrurus ludwigii
DEC
DEC
Drymocichla incana
NO CHANGE
INC
Dryoscopus gambensis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Emberiza affinis
INC
INC
Emberiza cabanisi
INC
INC
Emberiza flaviventris
INC
INC
Emberiza tahapisi
INC
INC
Ephippiorhynchus senegalensis
INC
INC
Eremomela badiceps
INC
NO CHANGE
Eremomela icteropygialis
INC
INC
Eremopterix nigriceps
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Erythropygia galactotes
NO CHANGE
INC
Erythropygia leucosticta
INC
NO CHANGE
Estrilda astrild
INC
INC
Estrilda caerulescens
INC
INC
Estrilda troglodytes
INC
INC
Euplectes ardens
INC
INC
Euplectes hordeaceus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Euplectes macroura
NO CHANGE
DEC
Eurystomus gularis
INC
INC
Euschistospiza dybowskii
INC
INC
Falco ardosiaceus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Falco chicquera
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Falco cuvierii
NO CHANGE
DEC
Francolinus ahantensis
INC
INC
Francolinus clappertoni
INC
INC
Francolinus coqui
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Francolinus squamatus
INC
NO CHANGE
Fraseria ocreata
DEC
DEC
Guttera pucherani
INC
INC
Halcyon chelicuti
NO CHANGE
DEC
Heliolais erythropterus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Hieraaetus ayresii
INC
INC
Himantornis haematopus
INC
NO CHANGE
Hirundo abyssinica
DEC
DEC
Hirundo fuligula
INC
INC
Hirundo leucosoma
NO CHANGE
DEC
Hirundo nigrita
DEC
DEC
Hirundo preussi
NO CHANGE
DEC
Hirundo senegalensis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Hyliota flavigaster
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Hyliota violacea
INC
NO CHANGE
Illadopsis puveli
INC
INC
Indicator exilis
INC
INC
Indicator indicator
NO CHANGE
DEC
Indicator maculatus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Indicator willcocksi
INC
INC
Lagonosticta rara
DEC
DEC
Lagonosticta rhodopareia
INC
INC
Lagonosticta rubricata
DEC
DEC
Lamprotornis caudatus
INC
INC
Lamprotornis chalcurus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Lamprotornis chalybaeus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Lamprotornis chloropterus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Lamprotornis pulcher
NO CHANGE
INC
Laniarius aethiopicus
INC
INC
Lanius collaris
INC
INC
Lanius gubernator
INC
INC
Leptoptilos crumeniferus
INC
INC
Lonchura bicolor
INC
INC
Lonchura cantans
INC
INC
Lonchura cucullata
NO CHANGE
DEC
Lonchura fringilloides
INC
INC
Macheiramphus alcinus
DEC
DEC
Macrodipteryx longipennis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Macrosphenus concolor
NO CHANGE
DEC
Macrosphenus kempi
INC
NO CHANGE
Malaconotus blanchoti
NO CHANGE
DEC
Malimbus nitens
INC
INC
Malimbus rubricollis
INC
NO CHANGE
Malimbus scutatus
INC
NO CHANGE
Megabyas flammulatus
INC
NO CHANGE
Melaenornis edolioides
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Melichneutes robustus
INC
NO CHANGE
Melocichla mentalis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Merops hirundineus
DEC
DEC
Merops nubicus
INC
INC
Merops pusillus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Mirafra africana
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Mirafra albicauda
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Mirafra cantillans
INC
INC
Mirafra rufocinnamomea
DEC
DEC
Motacilla aguimp
DEC
DEC
Motacilla clara
INC
NO CHANGE
Muscicapa aquatica
INC
INC
Muscicapa caerulescens
DEC
DEC
Myioparus plumbeus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Myrmecocichla aethiops
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Myrmecocichla nigra
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia adelberti
DEC
DEC
Nectarinia coccinigaster
NO CHANGE
DEC
Nectarinia olivacea
INC
INC
Nectarinia pulchella
NO CHANGE
INC
Nectarinia venusta
DEC
DEC
Neocossyphus poensis
INC
NO CHANGE
Nesocharis capistrata
NO CHANGE
DEC
Nigrita canicapillus
INC
NO CHANGE
Nigrita fusconotus
INC
INC
Numida meleagris
NO CHANGE
DEC
Oena capensis
NO CHANGE
INC
Oenanthe heuglini
INC
INC
Onychognathus fulgidus
INC
NO CHANGE
Onychognathus morio
INC
INC
Oriolus auratus
INC
INC
Oriolus nigripennis
INC
INC
Otus leucotis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Otus senegalensis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Pachycoccyx audeberti
INC
INC
Parus funereus
INC
NO CHANGE
Pelecanus rufescens
INC
INC
Petronia dentata
INC
INC
Petronia pyrgita
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Phoenicopterus roseus
INC
INC
Phoeniculus bollei
INC
NO CHANGE
Phyllanthus atripennis
INC
INC
Platysteira blissetti
INC
NO CHANGE
Platysteira cyanea
INC
INC
Plectropterus gambensis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Plegadis falcinellus
INC
INC
Ploceus luteolus
INC
INC
Ploceus nigerrimus
INC
INC
Ploceus nigricollis
INC
INC
Ploceus superciliosus
INC
INC
Ploceus vitellinus
INC
INC
Poicephalus robustus
DEC
DEC
Prinia subflava
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Prionops caniceps
INC
INC
Prodotiscus regulus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Psalidoprocne pristoptera
INC
INC
Pseudhirundo griseopyga
INC
INC
Pterocles lichtensteinii
INC
INC
Pterocles quadricinctus
INC
INC
Ptilopachus petrosus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Pyrenestes ostrinus
INC
INC
Pyrrhurus scandens
NO CHANGE
DEC
Pytilia hypogrammica
NO CHANGE
DEC
Pytilia phoenicoptera
INC
INC
Quelea quelea
NO CHANGE
INC
Rynchops flavirostris
INC
INC
Sagittarius serpentarius
INC
INC
Sarothrura elegans
INC
NO CHANGE
Schoenicola brevirostris
INC
INC
Serinus gularis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Serinus leucopygius
INC
INC
Serinus mozambicus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Spermophaga haematina
INC
INC
Sporopipes frontalis
INC
INC
Stephanoaetus coronatus
INC
INC
Streptopelia decipiens
INC
INC
Tchagra australis
DEC
DEC
Tchagra minutus
INC
INC
Telophorus sulfureopectus
DEC
DEC
Terathopius ecaudatus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Thalassornis leuconotus
INC
INC
Thamnolaea cinnamomeiventris
INC
INC
Threskiornis aethiopicus
INC
INC
Thripias pyrrhogaster
DEC
DEC
Tockus fasciatus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Tockus hartlaubi
DEC
DEC
Trachyphonus purpuratus
INC
INC
Treron calvus
DEC
DEC
Tropicranus albocristatus
INC
NO CHANGE
Turdoides plebejus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Turtur abyssinicus
INC
INC
Turtur tympanistria
INC
INC
Uraeginthus bengalus
INC
NO CHANGE
Urocolius macrourus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Vanellus lugubris
INC
INC
Vanellus superciliosus
INC
NO CHANGE
Vanellus tectus
INC
INC
Vidua camerunensis
INC
INC
Vidua larvaticola
INC
INC
Vidua paradisaea
INC
INC
Vidua raricola
INC
NO CHANGE
Vidua togoensis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Vidua wilsoni
INC
INC
Zoothera princei
INC
NO CHANGE
Zosterops senegalensis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE

The full description of the methodology used for this assessment can be downloaded here: Species Distribution Model