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< Return to Official Record for Sahel

Climate change vulnerability assessments

The boundaries and names shown, and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations or IUCN

Name

Sahel

  • WDPA ID

    3225

  • Country

    BFA

  • IUCN category

    IV

Species vulnerable to climate change

According to Traits-based Vulnerability Assessments (TVAs)

Vulnerable Species Total Species
Amphibian
2
15
Bird
33
254
Mammal
9
65
Total
44
334

13 % of bird, amphibian, and mammal species assessed are considered vulnerable to climate change

Expected species turnover

According to Species Distribution Models (SDMs)

Percentage of species turnover: Median (95% Confidence Interval)

by 2010-2039 by 2040-2069
Bird
  • 12.7%
  • 15.3%
  • 27.7%
  • 15.9%
  • 24.4%
  • 37.9%
Mammal
  • 14.1%
  • 18.0%
  • 33.3%
  • 19.5%
  • 29.2%
  • 56.2%
Amphibian
  • 10.2%
  • 19.5%
  • 27.6%
  • 15.5%
  • 26.3%
  • 41.8%

Vulnerable species

Name Order Exposure

by 2010-2039   by 2040-2069

 IUCN Red List category Sensitivity

to climate change

 Adaptability

to climate change
Lybius vieilloti Piciformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Anas crecca Anseriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Chelictinia riocourii Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
Numenius arquata Charadriiformes
NT
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Rhinopomastus aterrimus Coraciiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Torgos tracheliotos Falconiformes
VU
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Circus macrourus Falconiformes
NT
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Falco alopex Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
Ortyxelos meiffrenii Gruiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Anas acuta Anseriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Apus pallidus Apodiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Slow turnover of generations
Bucorvus abyssinicus Coraciiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Ciconia ciconia Ciconiiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Hieraaetus pennatus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Lymnocryptes minimus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Extrinsic barriers to dispersal
Tringa erythropus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Extrinsic barriers to dispersal
Tachymarptis melba Apodiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Upupa epops Coraciiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Neophron percnopterus Falconiformes
EN
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Streptopelia turtur Columbiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Low reproductive capacity
Struthio camelus Struthioniformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Ardeotis arabs Gruiformes
NT
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Streptopelia roseogrisea Columbiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Gyps fulvus Falconiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Glareola nuchalis Charadriiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Corvus ruficollis Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Cursorius cursor Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Caprimulgus aegyptius Caprimulgiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Neotis nuba Gruiformes
NT
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Gyps rueppellii N/A
EN
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Extrinsic barriers to dispersal
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
Tockus nasutus N/A
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
    Anas clypeata N/A
    		LC
    • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
    • Slow turnover of generations
    Tockus erythrorhynchus N/A
    		LC
    • Microhabitat specialisation
    • Slow turnover of generations

    The full description of the methodology used for this assessment can be downloaded here: Traits-based Vulnerability Assessments

    Expected changes in climate suitability

    Name By 2010-2039 By 2040-2069
    Chelictinia riocourii
    NO CHANGE
    NO CHANGE
    Torgos tracheliotos
    INC
    INC
    Apus pallidus
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Accipiter erythropus
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Glareola cinerea
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Tachymarptis melba
    INC
    INC
    Circaetus beaudouini
    INC
    INC
    Elminia longicauda
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Struthio camelus
    INC
    INC
    Streptopelia roseogrisea
    NO CHANGE
    DEC
    Nectarinia chloropygia
    INC
    INC
    Telacanthura ussheri
    INC
    INC
    Campethera nivosa
    NO CHANGE
    NO CHANGE
    Cossypha cyanocampter
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Nectarinia verticalis
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Corvus ruficollis
    INC
    INC
    Turdoides fulva
    INC
    INC
    Caprimulgus eximius
    INC
    INC
    Bubo ascalaphus
    INC
    INC
    Lybius bidentatus
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Lybius dubius
    INC
    INC
    Tigriornis leucolopha
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Tockus erythrorhynchus
    NO CHANGE
    DEC
    Accipiter melanoleucus
    INC
    INC
    Accipiter ovampensis
    INC
    INC
    Accipiter tachiro
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Acrocephalus rufescens
    INC
    INC
    Aenigmatolimnas marginalis
    INC
    INC
    Alaemon alaudipes
    INC
    INC
    Alcedo cristata
    NO CHANGE
    INC
    Alcedo quadribrachys
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Amadina fasciata
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Amandava subflava
    INC
    INC
    Ammomanes cinctura
    INC
    INC
    Ammomanes deserti
    INC
    INC
    Anaplectes rubriceps
    INC
    INC
    Anas capensis
    INC
    INC
    Anas hottentota
    INC
    INC
    Anas sparsa
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Anastomus lamelligerus
    DEC
    DEC
    Andropadus gracilirostris
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Anomalospiza imberbis
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Anthoscopus parvulus
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Anthoscopus punctifrons
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Anthreptes longuemarei
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Anthus leucophrys
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Anthus similis
    INC
    INC
    Apalis flavida
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Aplopelia larvata
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Aquila rapax
    NO CHANGE
    DEC
    Ardea melanocephala
    NO CHANGE
    DEC
    Asio capensis
    INC
    INC
    Aviceda cuculoides
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Balaeniceps rex
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Balearica pavonina
    NO CHANGE
    DEC
    Bradornis pallidus
    INC
    INC
    Bubo africanus
    DEC
    DEC
    Bucanetes githagineus
    INC
    INC
    Campephaga phoenicea
    INC
    INC
    Campethera abingoni
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Campethera cailliautii
    NO CHANGE
    INC
    Caprimulgus natalensis
    INC
    INC
    Centropus grillii
    INC
    INC
    Centropus monachus
    NO CHANGE
    NO CHANGE
    Cercomela familiaris
    NO CHANGE
    NO CHANGE
    Cercomela melanura
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Cercotrichas podobe
    NO CHANGE
    DEC
    Charadrius forbesi
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Charadrius marginatus
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Charadrius pecuarius
    NO CHANGE
    DEC
    Chlorocichla flavicollis
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Chrysococcyx cupreus
    INC
    INC
    Chrysococcyx klaas
    INC
    INC
    Ciconia abdimii
    NO CHANGE
    DEC
    Ciconia episcopus
    INC
    INC
    Circaetus cinereus
    INC
    INC
    Cisticola aberrans
    INC
    INC
    Cisticola aridulus
    INC
    INC
    Cisticola brachypterus
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Cisticola cantans
    INC
    INC
    Cisticola erythrops
    INC
    INC
    Cisticola galactotes
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Cisticola guinea
    INC
    INC
    Cisticola lateralis
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Cisticola natalensis
    INC
    INC
    Cisticola robustus
    INC
    INC
    Cisticola ruficeps
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Cisticola rufus
    INC
    INC
    Coracias cyanogaster
    INC
    INC
    Coracina pectoralis
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Corvus rhipidurus
    INC
    INC
    Cossypha albicapilla
    INC
    INC
    Coturnix delegorguei
    INC
    INC
    Crecopsis egregia
    INC
    INC
    Cuculus clamosus
    INC
    INC
    Cuculus solitarius
    INC
    INC
    Cypsiurus parvus
    DEC
    DEC
    Dendropicos elachus
    INC
    INC
    Dendropicos fuscescens
    NO CHANGE
    INC
    Dicrurus ludwigii
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Dryoscopus gambensis
    INC
    INC
    Egretta ardesiaca
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Egretta gularis
    INC
    INC
    Emberiza affinis
    INC
    INC
    Emberiza cabanisi
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Emberiza flaviventris
    NO CHANGE
    NO CHANGE
    Emberiza striolata
    INC
    INC
    Eremalauda dunni
    INC
    INC
    Erythropygia galactotes
    INC
    INC
    Estrilda astrild
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Estrilda caerulescens
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Estrilda melpoda
    INC
    INC
    Euplectes axillaris
    INC
    INC
    Euplectes franciscanus
    INC
    INC
    Euplectes hordeaceus
    INC
    INC
    Euplectes macroura
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Eupodotis senegalensis
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Eurystomus glaucurus
    INC
    INC
    Falco biarmicus
    NO CHANGE
    DEC
    Falco cuvierii
    INC
    INC
    Francolinus albogularis
    INC
    INC
    Francolinus clappertoni
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Francolinus coqui
    INC
    INC
    Galerida modesta
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Gallinula angulata
    INC
    INC
    Gorsachius leuconotus
    INC
    INC
    Gypohierax angolensis
    INC
    INC
    Heliolais erythropterus
    INC
    INC
    Hieraaetus ayresii
    INC
    INC
    Hieraaetus spilogaster
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Hippolais pallida
    INC
    INC
    Hirundo aethiopica
    DEC
    DEC
    Hirundo fuligula
    INC
    INC
    Hirundo leucosoma
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Hirundo obsoleta
    INC
    INC
    Hirundo semirufa
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Hylia prasina
    INC
    INC
    Hyliota flavigaster
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Hypergerus atriceps
    INC
    INC
    Indicator maculatus
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Indicator minor
    INC
    INC
    Kaupifalco monogrammicus
    INC
    INC
    Lagonosticta larvata
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Lagonosticta rara
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Lagonosticta rubricata
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Lagonosticta rufopicta
    INC
    INC
    Lamprotornis chalcurus
    INC
    INC
    Lamprotornis chloropterus
    INC
    INC
    Lamprotornis pulcher
    NO CHANGE
    DEC
    Laniarius aethiopicus
    INC
    INC
    Laniarius erythrogaster
    NO CHANGE
    INC
    Lanius collaris
    NO CHANGE
    NO CHANGE
    Lanius excubitoroides
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Leptoptilos crumeniferus
    NO CHANGE
    DEC
    Lonchura cantans
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Lonchura cucullata
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Lonchura fringilloides
    NO CHANGE
    NO CHANGE
    Macronyx croceus
    INC
    INC
    Malaconotus blanchoti
    INC
    INC
    Megaceryle maxima
    INC
    INC
    Melaenornis edolioides
    INC
    INC
    Melierax gabar
    NO CHANGE
    NO CHANGE
    Melierax metabates
    DEC
    DEC
    Melocichla mentalis
    INC
    INC
    Merops bulocki
    INC
    INC
    Merops hirundineus
    INC
    INC
    Mesopicos goertae
    NO CHANGE
    DEC
    Microparra capensis
    INC
    INC
    Mirafra africana
    INC
    INC
    Mirafra albicauda
    INC
    INC
    Motacilla aguimp
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Muscicapa aquatica
    INC
    INC
    Muscicapa gambagae
    INC
    INC
    Musophaga violacea
    INC
    INC
    Myioparus plumbeus
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Myrmecocichla albifrons
    INC
    INC
    Necrosyrtes monachus
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Nectarinia coccinigaster
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Nectarinia cuprea
    INC
    INC
    Nectarinia olivacea
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Nectarinia senegalensis
    INC
    INC
    Nectarinia venusta
    NO CHANGE
    NO CHANGE
    Neotis denhami
    NO CHANGE
    DEC
    Numida meleagris
    INC
    INC
    Oenanthe heuglini
    NO CHANGE
    DEC
    Oenanthe leucopyga
    INC
    INC
    Oriolus auratus
    INC
    INC
    Ortygospiza atricollis
    INC
    INC
    Otus leucotis
    DEC
    DEC
    Pachycoccyx audeberti
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Passer luteus
    NO CHANGE
    DEC
    Pelecanus rufescens
    INC
    INC
    Petronia pyrgita
    INC
    INC
    Phoeniconaias minor
    INC
    INC
    Phoenicopterus roseus
    INC
    INC
    Pinarocorys erythropygia
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Platysteira cyanea
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Plegadis falcinellus
    NO CHANGE
    DEC
    Plocepasser superciliosus
    INC
    INC
    Ploceus heuglini
    INC
    INC
    Ploceus luteolus
    INC
    INC
    Ploceus melanocephalus
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Ploceus nigricollis
    NO CHANGE
    INC
    Podica senegalensis
    INC
    INC
    Pogoniulus chrysoconus
    NO CHANGE
    DEC
    Polyboroides typus
    INC
    INC
    Prodotiscus regulus
    NO CHANGE
    INC
    Psalidoprocne obscura
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Psalidoprocne pristoptera
    INC
    INC
    Pseudhirundo griseopyga
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Pterocles lichtensteinii
    INC
    INC
    Pterocles quadricinctus
    NO CHANGE
    DEC
    Pterocles senegallus
    INC
    INC
    Pyrrhurus scandens
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Pytilia melba
    INC
    INC
    Pytilia phoenicoptera
    INC
    INC
    Sagittarius serpentarius
    NO CHANGE
    DEC
    Scotopelia peli
    INC
    INC
    Serinus gularis
    INC
    INC
    Serinus leucopygius
    NO CHANGE
    NO CHANGE
    Serinus mozambicus
    INC
    INC
    Spiloptila clamans
    NO CHANGE
    DEC
    Stephanoaetus coronatus
    INC
    INC
    Strix woodfordii
    INC
    INC
    Tchagra senegalus
    DEC
    DEC
    Telophorus sulfureopectus
    INC
    INC
    Terathopius ecaudatus
    INC
    INC
    Terpsiphone viridis
    INC
    INC
    Thalassornis leuconotus
    INC
    INC
    Thamnolaea cinnamomeiventris
    INC
    INC
    Threskiornis aethiopicus
    DEC
    DEC
    Tockus fasciatus
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Treron calvus
    INC
    INC
    Trigonoceps occipitalis
    INC
    INC
    Turdoides plebejus
    INC
    INC
    Turdoides reinwardii
    INC
    INC
    Turdus pelios
    INC
    INC
    Vanellus crassirostris
    NO CHANGE
    NO CHANGE
    Vidua camerunensis
    INC
    INC
    Vidua interjecta
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Vidua larvaticola
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Vidua togoensis
    INC
    NO CHANGE
    Vidua wilsoni
    INC
    NO CHANGE

    The full description of the methodology used for this assessment can be downloaded here: Species Distribution Model

    Download the full set of data for Sahel (CSV file).

    < Return to Official Record for Sahel