Climate change vulnerability assessments
The boundaries and names shown, and the designations used on this
map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United
Nations or IUCN
Name
Warwade
WDPA ID
342479
Country
NGA
IUCN category
Not Reported
Species vulnerable to climate change
According to Traits-based Vulnerability Assessments (TVAs)
| Vulnerable Species | Total Species | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Amphibian |
1
|
21
|
|
| Bird |
39
|
340
|
|
| Mammal |
2
|
69
|
|
| Total | 42 |
430 |
9 % of bird, amphibian, and mammal species assessed are considered vulnerable to climate change
Expected species turnover
According to Species Distribution Models (SDMs)
Percentage of species turnover: Median (95% Confidence Interval)
| by 2010-2039 | by 2040-2069 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Bird |
|
|
|
| Mammal |
|
|
|
| Amphibian |
|
|
Vulnerable species
| Name | Order | Exposure by 2010-2039 by 2040-2069 |
IUCN Red List category | Sensitivity to climate change |
Adaptability to climate change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caprimulgus europaeus | Caprimulgiformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Falco peregrinus | Falconiformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Himantopus himantopus | Charadriiformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Lybius vieilloti | Piciformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Pelecanus onocrotalus | Pelecaniformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Tringa totanus | Charadriiformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Anas crecca | Anseriformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Chelictinia riocourii | Falconiformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Ciconia nigra | Ciconiiformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Numenius arquata | Charadriiformes |
|
NT |
|
|
| Rhinopomastus aterrimus | Coraciiformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Apus apus | Apodiformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Circus macrourus | Falconiformes |
|
NT |
|
|
| Falco alopex | Falconiformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Falco subbuteo | Falconiformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Ortyxelos meiffrenii | Gruiformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Anas acuta | Anseriformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Apus pallidus | Apodiformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Bucorvus abyssinicus | Coraciiformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Ciconia ciconia | Ciconiiformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Circus pygargus | Falconiformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Hieraaetus pennatus | Falconiformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Lymnocryptes minimus | Charadriiformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Tringa erythropus | Charadriiformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Circaetus gallicus | Falconiformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Tachymarptis melba | Apodiformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Upupa epops | Coraciiformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Circaetus beaudouini | Falconiformes |
|
VU |
|
|
| Circus aeruginosus | Falconiformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Neophron percnopterus | Falconiformes |
|
EN |
|
|
| Lybius leucocephalus | Piciformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Aythya nyroca | Anseriformes |
|
NT |
|
|
| Streptopelia turtur | Columbiformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Struthio camelus | Struthioniformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Recurvirostra avosetta | Charadriiformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Streptopelia roseogrisea | Columbiformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Pernis apivorus | Falconiformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Telacanthura ussheri | Apodiformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Marmaronetta angustirostris | Anseriformes |
|
VU |
|
|
The full description of the methodology used for this assessment can be downloaded here: Traits-based Vulnerability Assessments
Expected changes in climate suitability
| Name | By 2010-2039 | By 2040-2069 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Torgos tracheliotos | INC |
INC |
|
| Falco alopex | NO CHANGE |
INC |
|
| Accipiter erythropus | INC |
INC |
|
| Glareola cinerea | INC |
INC |
|
| Elminia longicauda | INC |
INC |
|
| Struthio camelus | INC |
INC |
|
| Ardeotis arabs | INC |
INC |
|
| Streptopelia roseogrisea | INC |
INC |
|
| Nectarinia chloropygia | INC |
INC |
|
| Tauraco persa | INC |
INC |
|
| Campethera nivosa | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Cossypha cyanocampter | NO CHANGE |
INC |
|
| Pogoniulus bilineatus | INC |
INC |
|
| Camaroptera chloronota | NO CHANGE |
INC |
|
| Nectarinia verticalis | INC |
INC |
|
| Nectarinia superba | INC |
INC |
|
| Fraseria cinerascens | NO CHANGE |
INC |
|
| Glareola nuchalis | INC |
INC |
|
| Illadopsis fulvescens | INC |
INC |
|
| Lamprotornis splendidus | INC |
INC |
|
| Corvus ruficollis | INC |
INC |
|
| Cursorius cursor | INC |
INC |
|
| Turdoides fulva | INC |
INC |
|
| Caprimulgus eximius | INC |
INC |
|
| Bubo ascalaphus | NO CHANGE |
INC |
|
| Lybius bidentatus | INC |
INC |
|
| Tigriornis leucolopha | NO CHANGE |
INC |
|
| Accipiter melanoleucus | INC |
INC |
|
| Accipiter ovampensis | DEC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Accipiter tachiro | INC |
INC |
|
| Acrocephalus gracilirostris | DEC |
DEC |
|
| Aenigmatolimnas marginalis | NO CHANGE |
DEC |
|
| Alaemon alaudipes | INC |
INC |
|
| Alcedo quadribrachys | INC |
INC |
|
| Amadina fasciata | INC |
INC |
|
| Amandava subflava | DEC |
DEC |
|
| Ammomanes deserti | INC |
INC |
|
| Anaplectes rubriceps | INC |
INC |
|
| Anas capensis | DEC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Anas hottentota | DEC |
DEC |
|
| Anas sparsa | INC |
INC |
|
| Anastomus lamelligerus | DEC |
DEC |
|
| Andropadus gracilirostris | INC |
INC |
|
| Andropadus virens | INC |
INC |
|
| Anomalospiza imberbis | INC |
INC |
|
| Anthoscopus punctifrons | INC |
INC |
|
| Anthreptes longuemarei | DEC |
DEC |
|
| Anthus leucophrys | NO CHANGE |
DEC |
|
| Anthus similis | INC |
INC |
|
| Apalis flavida | INC |
INC |
|
| Apaloderma narina | NO CHANGE |
DEC |
|
| Aplopelia larvata | INC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Apus horus | INC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Aquila wahlbergi | INC |
INC |
|
| Asio capensis | INC |
INC |
|
| Aviceda cuculoides | INC |
INC |
|
| Balaeniceps rex | INC |
INC |
|
| Balearica pavonina | INC |
INC |
|
| Bleda canicapillus | NO CHANGE |
INC |
|
| Bradornis pallidus | INC |
INC |
|
| Bubo africanus | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Calandrella cinerea | INC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Campephaga phoenicea | INC |
INC |
|
| Campethera cailliautii | NO CHANGE |
INC |
|
| Caprimulgus inornatus | INC |
INC |
|
| Caprimulgus natalensis | NO CHANGE |
INC |
|
| Caprimulgus tristigma | INC |
INC |
|
| Centropus monachus | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Cercomela familiaris | INC |
INC |
|
| Cercomela melanura | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Cercotrichas podobe | INC |
INC |
|
| Charadrius marginatus | INC |
INC |
|
| Chlorocichla flavicollis | INC |
INC |
|
| Ciconia abdimii | INC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Circaetus cinereus | NO CHANGE |
DEC |
|
| Cisticola aberrans | DEC |
DEC |
|
| Cisticola aridulus | DEC |
DEC |
|
| Cisticola brachypterus | INC |
INC |
|
| Cisticola lateralis | INC |
INC |
|
| Cisticola natalensis | NO CHANGE |
DEC |
|
| Cisticola robustus | INC |
INC |
|
| Cisticola ruficeps | INC |
INC |
|
| Cisticola rufus | INC |
INC |
|
| Cisticola troglodytes | INC |
INC |
|
| Coracias cyanogaster | INC |
INC |
|
| Coracias naevia | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Coracina pectoralis | DEC |
DEC |
|
| Corvus rhipidurus | INC |
INC |
|
| Cossypha albicapilla | INC |
INC |
|
| Cossypha natalensis | INC |
INC |
|
| Coturnix delegorguei | NO CHANGE |
DEC |
|
| Cuculus solitarius | DEC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Dendropicos elachus | INC |
INC |
|
| Dendropicos fuscescens | INC |
INC |
|
| Dicrurus ludwigii | INC |
INC |
|
| Dryoscopus gambensis | INC |
INC |
|
| Egretta gularis | INC |
INC |
|
| Emberiza cabanisi | INC |
INC |
|
| Emberiza flaviventris | INC |
INC |
|
| Emberiza striolata | INC |
INC |
|
| Empidornis semipartitus | INC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Eremomela icteropygialis | INC |
INC |
|
| Eremopterix leucotis | NO CHANGE |
INC |
|
| Eremopterix nigriceps | INC |
INC |
|
| Erythropygia galactotes | INC |
INC |
|
| Estrilda astrild | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Estrilda melpoda | INC |
INC |
|
| Euplectes afer | INC |
INC |
|
| Euplectes ardens | INC |
INC |
|
| Euplectes franciscanus | INC |
INC |
|
| Euplectes hordeaceus | INC |
INC |
|
| Euplectes macroura | INC |
INC |
|
| Euschistospiza dybowskii | INC |
INC |
|
| Francolinus albogularis | INC |
INC |
|
| Francolinus clappertoni | INC |
INC |
|
| Francolinus coqui | INC |
INC |
|
| Guttera pucherani | INC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Gypohierax angolensis | INC |
INC |
|
| Halcyon malimbica | INC |
INC |
|
| Hieraaetus ayresii | INC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Hieraaetus spilogaster | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Hippolais pallida | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Hirundo leucosoma | INC |
INC |
|
| Hirundo lucida | INC |
INC |
|
| Hirundo obsoleta | INC |
INC |
|
| Hylia prasina | INC |
INC |
|
| Hyliota flavigaster | INC |
INC |
|
| Hypergerus atriceps | INC |
INC |
|
| Indicator exilis | INC |
INC |
|
| Indicator maculatus | INC |
INC |
|
| Lagonosticta larvata | INC |
INC |
|
| Lagonosticta rara | INC |
INC |
|
| Lagonosticta rhodopareia | INC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Lagonosticta rubricata | INC |
INC |
|
| Lagonosticta rufopicta | INC |
INC |
|
| Lamprotornis chalybaeus | INC |
INC |
|
| Laniarius aethiopicus | INC |
INC |
|
| Laniarius erythrogaster | INC |
INC |
|
| Lanius collaris | INC |
INC |
|
| Lanius excubitoroides | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Lanius gubernator | INC |
INC |
|
| Lonchura bicolor | INC |
INC |
|
| Lonchura fringilloides | INC |
INC |
|
| Macrodipteryx longipennis | INC |
INC |
|
| Malaconotus blanchoti | DEC |
DEC |
|
| Melierax gabar | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Melocichla mentalis | INC |
INC |
|
| Merops albicollis | INC |
INC |
|
| Merops hirundineus | NO CHANGE |
DEC |
|
| Merops variegatus | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Microparra capensis | INC |
INC |
|
| Mirafra africana | DEC |
DEC |
|
| Mirafra albicauda | INC |
INC |
|
| Mirafra cantillans | INC |
INC |
|
| Mirafra cordofanica | INC |
INC |
|
| Motacilla aguimp | INC |
INC |
|
| Muscicapa caerulescens | INC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Muscicapa gambagae | INC |
INC |
|
| Myioparus plumbeus | DEC |
DEC |
|
| Myrmecocichla nigra | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Nectarinia coccinigaster | INC |
INC |
|
| Nectarinia olivacea | INC |
INC |
|
| Nectarinia senegalensis | NO CHANGE |
DEC |
|
| Nectarinia venusta | INC |
INC |
|
| Nilaus afer | NO CHANGE |
DEC |
|
| Numida meleagris | DEC |
DEC |
|
| Oena capensis | INC |
INC |
|
| Oriolus auratus | INC |
INC |
|
| Otus leucotis | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Pachycoccyx audeberti | DEC |
DEC |
|
| Passer luteus | INC |
INC |
|
| Pelecanus rufescens | INC |
INC |
|
| Petronia pyrgita | INC |
INC |
|
| Phoenicopterus roseus | INC |
INC |
|
| Platysteira cyanea | INC |
INC |
|
| Ploceus melanocephalus | NO CHANGE |
INC |
|
| Ploceus nigricollis | INC |
INC |
|
| Ploceus superciliosus | INC |
INC |
|
| Poicephalus robustus | DEC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Polyboroides typus | DEC |
DEC |
|
| Prionops caniceps | NO CHANGE |
INC |
|
| Prionops plumatus | DEC |
DEC |
|
| Prodotiscus regulus | INC |
INC |
|
| Psalidoprocne pristoptera | INC |
INC |
|
| Pseudhirundo griseopyga | DEC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Pterocles lichtensteinii | INC |
INC |
|
| Pterocles senegallus | INC |
INC |
|
| Pyrenestes ostrinus | INC |
INC |
|
| Pyrrhurus scandens | INC |
INC |
|
| Pytilia melba | NO CHANGE |
DEC |
|
| Quelea erythrops | INC |
INC |
|
| Rallus caerulescens | INC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Rynchops flavirostris | INC |
INC |
|
| Sagittarius serpentarius | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Schoenicola brevirostris | INC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Serinus gularis | INC |
INC |
|
| Spiloptila clamans | INC |
INC |
|
| Stephanoaetus coronatus | INC |
INC |
|
| Streptopelia vinacea | NO CHANGE |
INC |
|
| Strix woodfordii | INC |
INC |
|
| Tauraco leucolophus | INC |
INC |
|
| Tchagra minutus | INC |
INC |
|
| Terathopius ecaudatus | NO CHANGE |
DEC |
|
| Thalassornis leuconotus | INC |
INC |
|
| Thamnolaea cinnamomeiventris | DEC |
DEC |
|
| Tockus fasciatus | INC |
INC |
|
| Trachyphonus margaritatus | INC |
INC |
|
| Treron calvus | INC |
INC |
|
| Turtur afer | INC |
INC |
|
| Uraeginthus bengalus | INC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Urocolius macrourus | INC |
INC |
|
| Vanellus crassirostris | INC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Vanellus lugubris | INC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Vidua camerunensis | INC |
INC |
|
| Vidua interjecta | INC |
INC |
|
| Vidua wilsoni | INC |
INC |
The full description of the methodology used for this assessment can be downloaded here: Species Distribution Model
