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Climate change vulnerability assessments

The boundaries and names shown, and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations or IUCN

Name

Ngala

WDPA ID
36219
Country
NGA
IUCN category
Not Reported

Species vulnerable to climate change

According to Traits-based Vulnerability Assessments (TVAs)

	Vulnerable Species	Total Species
Amphibian	1	9
Bird	43	335
Mammal	7	64
Total	51	408

12 % of bird, amphibian, and mammal species assessed are considered vulnerable to climate change

Expected species turnover

According to Species Distribution Models (SDMs)

Percentage of species turnover: Median (95% Confidence Interval)

	by 2010-2039	by 2040-2069
Bird	8.1% 13.0% 27.9%	14.1% 23.2% 35.3%
Mammal	11.6% 16.4% 35.2%	19.9% 28.9% 46.3%
Amphibian	8.3% 13.0% 31.0%	11.9% 23.8% 45.1%

Vulnerable species

Name	Order	IUCN Red List category	Sensitivity to climate change	Adaptability to climate change
Falco peregrinus	Falconiformes	LC	Microhabitat specialisation Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Low genetic diversity Slow turnover of generations
Himantopus himantopus	Charadriiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations
Lybius vieilloti	Piciformes	LC	Microhabitat specialisation Small population size Small effective population size	Low intrinsic dispersal capacity Slow turnover of generations
Pelecanus onocrotalus	Pelecaniformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations Low reproductive capacity
Tringa totanus	Charadriiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations
Anas crecca	Anseriformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations
Chelictinia riocourii	Falconiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes Small population size Small effective population size	Slow turnover of generations
Ciconia nigra	Ciconiiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations
Numenius arquata	Charadriiformes	NT	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations
Rhinopomastus aterrimus	Coraciiformes	LC	Microhabitat specialisation Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes Low Tolerance to temperature changes Small population size Small effective population size	Slow turnover of generations Low reproductive capacity
Torgos tracheliotos	Falconiformes	VU	Low Tolerance to temperature changes Small population size Small effective population size	Slow turnover of generations Low reproductive capacity
Apus apus	Apodiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations
Circus macrourus	Falconiformes	NT	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations
Falco alopex	Falconiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes Low Tolerance to temperature changes Small population size Small effective population size	Slow turnover of generations
Falco subbuteo	Falconiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations
Ortyxelos meiffrenii	Gruiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes Small population size Small effective population size	Low reproductive capacity
Anas acuta	Anseriformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations
Apus pallidus	Apodiformes	LC	Microhabitat specialisation	Slow turnover of generations
Bucorvus abyssinicus	Coraciiformes	LC	Microhabitat specialisation Small population size Small effective population size	Low intrinsic dispersal capacity Slow turnover of generations Low reproductive capacity
Ciconia ciconia	Ciconiiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations
Circus pygargus	Falconiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations
Glareola cinerea	Charadriiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes	Slow turnover of generations Low reproductive capacity
Hieraaetus pennatus	Falconiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations Low reproductive capacity
Lymnocryptes minimus	Charadriiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Extrinsic barriers to dispersal
Tringa erythropus	Charadriiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Extrinsic barriers to dispersal
Circaetus gallicus	Falconiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations Low reproductive capacity
Upupa epops	Coraciiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations
Circaetus beaudouini	Falconiformes	VU	Small population size Small effective population size	Slow turnover of generations Low reproductive capacity
Circus aeruginosus	Falconiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations
Neophron percnopterus	Falconiformes	EN	Microhabitat specialisation Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations Low reproductive capacity
Aythya nyroca	Anseriformes	NT	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations
Streptopelia turtur	Columbiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Low reproductive capacity
Struthio camelus	Struthioniformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes Small population size Small effective population size	Low intrinsic dispersal capacity Slow turnover of generations
Accipiter nisus	Falconiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations
Recurvirostra avosetta	Charadriiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations
Ardeotis arabs	Gruiformes	NT	Low Tolerance to temperature changes Small population size Small effective population size	Slow turnover of generations Low reproductive capacity
Streptopelia roseogrisea	Columbiformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes Small population size Small effective population size	Low reproductive capacity
Gyps fulvus	Falconiformes	LC	Microhabitat specialisation Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations Low reproductive capacity
Pernis apivorus	Falconiformes	LC	Intolerance of disturbance Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations Low reproductive capacity
Glareola nuchalis	Charadriiformes	LC	Microhabitat specialisation	Slow turnover of generations Low reproductive capacity
Glareola nordmanni	Charadriiformes	NT	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations
Aythya ferina	Anseriformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations
Aythya fuligula	Anseriformes	LC	Low Tolerance to temperature changes	Slow turnover of generations

The full description of the methodology used for this assessment can be downloaded here: Traits-based Vulnerability Assessments

Expected changes in climate suitability

Name	By 2010-2039	By 2040-2069
Lybius vieilloti	NO CHANGE	DEC
Chelictinia riocourii	NO CHANGE	DEC
Torgos tracheliotos	DEC	DEC
Ortyxelos meiffrenii	NO CHANGE	DEC
Accipiter erythropus	INC	NO CHANGE
Lybius leucocephalus	INC	NO CHANGE
Struthio camelus	NO CHANGE	DEC
Ardeotis arabs	DEC	DEC
Streptopelia roseogrisea	DEC	DEC
Nectarinia chloropygia	INC	NO CHANGE
Campethera nivosa	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Corvus ruficollis	INC	INC
Cursorius cursor	INC	INC
Turdoides fulva	INC	INC
Caprimulgus eximius	INC	INC
Bubo ascalaphus	INC	INC
Gyps rueppellii	NO CHANGE	DEC
Accipiter melanoleucus	INC	INC
Accipiter tachiro	INC	NO CHANGE
Acrocephalus gracilirostris	INC	INC
Acrocephalus rufescens	INC	NO CHANGE
Alaemon alaudipes	INC	INC
Alopochen aegyptiaca	NO CHANGE	DEC
Amandava subflava	INC	INC
Ammomanes deserti	INC	INC
Anaplectes rubriceps	INC	NO CHANGE
Anas capensis	INC	NO CHANGE
Anas hottentota	DEC	NO CHANGE
Anas sparsa	INC	NO CHANGE
Anastomus lamelligerus	DEC	NO CHANGE
Anthoscopus punctifrons	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Anthreptes platurus	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Anthus similis	INC	INC
Apaloderma narina	INC	INC
Aplopelia larvata	INC	NO CHANGE
Aquila rapax	NO CHANGE	DEC
Ardea melanocephala	NO CHANGE	DEC
Aviceda cuculoides	INC	NO CHANGE
Balearica pavonina	NO CHANGE	DEC
Batis orientalis	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Bubo africanus	DEC	NO CHANGE
Campephaga phoenicea	NO CHANGE	INC
Campethera cailliautii	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Caprimulgus climacurus	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Caprimulgus inornatus	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Cercotrichas podobe	DEC	DEC
Charadrius pecuarius	NO CHANGE	DEC
Chlorocichla flavicollis	INC	NO CHANGE
Ciconia abdimii	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Cisticola aberrans	INC	INC
Cisticola aridulus	NO CHANGE	DEC
Cisticola erythrops	INC	INC
Cisticola guinea	INC	NO CHANGE
Cisticola natalensis	INC	INC
Columba guinea	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Coracias cyanogaster	INC	NO CHANGE
Coracina pectoralis	INC	NO CHANGE
Corvinella corvina	INC	INC
Corvus rhipidurus	INC	INC
Cossypha albicapilla	INC	NO CHANGE
Cuculus solitarius	INC	NO CHANGE
Cypsiurus parvus	NO CHANGE	DEC
Dendropicos elachus	DEC	DEC
Dryoscopus gambensis	INC	INC
Egretta gularis	INC	INC
Emberiza affinis	INC	INC
Emberiza flaviventris	NO CHANGE	DEC
Emberiza striolata	INC	INC
Emberiza tahapisi	INC	INC
Eremomela icteropygialis	INC	INC
Eremopterix nigriceps	INC	INC
Estrilda caerulescens	INC	NO CHANGE
Euplectes afer	INC	INC
Euplectes axillaris	INC	INC
Euplectes franciscanus	INC	INC
Euplectes hordeaceus	INC	INC
Eupodotis savilei	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Eupodotis senegalensis	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Falco biarmicus	DEC	DEC
Francolinus albogularis	INC	NO CHANGE
Francolinus bicalcaratus	INC	INC
Francolinus clappertoni	DEC	DEC
Francolinus coqui	INC	INC
Galerida modesta	INC	NO CHANGE
Gypohierax angolensis	INC	NO CHANGE
Halcyon malimbica	INC	NO CHANGE
Heliolais erythropterus	INC	NO CHANGE
Hippolais pallida	NO CHANGE	DEC
Hirundo aethiopica	DEC	DEC
Hirundo fuligula	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Hirundo lucida	INC	INC
Hirundo obsoleta	INC	INC
Hirundo semirufa	INC	NO CHANGE
Hylia prasina	INC	INC
Hyliota flavigaster	INC	NO CHANGE
Hypergerus atriceps	INC	INC
Kaupifalco monogrammicus	INC	INC
Lagonosticta rufopicta	INC	NO CHANGE
Lamprotornis chalcurus	INC	NO CHANGE
Lamprotornis pulcher	DEC	DEC
Laniarius aethiopicus	INC	NO CHANGE
Lanius collaris	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Lanius excubitoroides	DEC	DEC
Leptoptilos crumeniferus	DEC	DEC
Lonchura cantans	DEC	DEC
Lonchura cucullata	INC	NO CHANGE
Lybius guifsobalito	INC	NO CHANGE
Lybius rolleti	INC	NO CHANGE
Macrodipteryx longipennis	INC	NO CHANGE
Malaconotus blanchoti	INC	NO CHANGE
Melierax gabar	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Melierax metabates	NO CHANGE	DEC
Melocichla mentalis	INC	NO CHANGE
Merops albicollis	INC	NO CHANGE
Merops hirundineus	INC	INC
Mesopicos goertae	NO CHANGE	DEC
Microparra capensis	NO CHANGE	DEC
Mirafra africana	INC	NO CHANGE
Mirafra albicauda	INC	INC
Mirafra cantillans	DEC	DEC
Mirafra cordofanica	INC	INC
Mirafra rufocinnamomea	INC	INC
Muscicapa gambagae	NO CHANGE	DEC
Musophaga violacea	INC	NO CHANGE
Myioparus plumbeus	INC	NO CHANGE
Myrmecocichla aethiops	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Myrmecocichla nigra	INC	NO CHANGE
Necrosyrtes monachus	NO CHANGE	DEC
Nectarinia coccinigaster	INC	NO CHANGE
Nectarinia cuprea	INC	INC
Nectarinia pulchella	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Nectarinia senegalensis	INC	INC
Nectarinia venusta	NO CHANGE	INC
Numida meleagris	INC	INC
Oenanthe heuglini	DEC	DEC
Oenanthe leucopyga	INC	NO CHANGE
Onychognathus morio	INC	INC
Oriolus auratus	INC	NO CHANGE
Otus leucotis	DEC	DEC
Passer luteus	DEC	DEC
Pelecanus rufescens	DEC	DEC
Petronia pyrgita	INC	INC
Phoeniconaias minor	INC	NO CHANGE
Phoenicopterus roseus	INC	INC
Plegadis falcinellus	DEC	DEC
Plocepasser superciliosus	INC	NO CHANGE
Pogoniulus chrysoconus	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Poicephalus meyeri	INC	INC
Polyboroides typus	INC	INC
Prionops plumatus	INC	INC
Prodotiscus regulus	INC	NO CHANGE
Psalidoprocne obscura	INC	NO CHANGE
Psalidoprocne pristoptera	INC	INC
Pterocles lichtensteinii	INC	INC
Pterocles quadricinctus	NO CHANGE	DEC
Pterocles senegallus	INC	INC
Pytilia phoenicoptera	INC	NO CHANGE
Sagittarius serpentarius	DEC	DEC
Scotopelia peli	INC	INC
Serinus gularis	INC	INC
Serinus leucopygius	NO CHANGE	NO CHANGE
Serinus mozambicus	INC	INC
Spiloptila clamans	DEC	DEC
Sporopipes frontalis	NO CHANGE	DEC
Stephanoaetus coronatus	INC	NO CHANGE
Streptopelia semitorquata	INC	INC
Thalassornis leuconotus	INC	INC
Thamnolaea cinnamomeiventris	INC	INC
Threskiornis aethiopicus	NO CHANGE	DEC
Trachyphonus margaritatus	DEC	DEC
Treron calvus	NO CHANGE	INC
Turdoides reinwardii	INC	NO CHANGE
Turtur afer	INC	NO CHANGE
Urocolius macrourus	DEC	DEC
Vidua camerunensis	NO CHANGE	INC
Vidua interjecta	INC	NO CHANGE
Vidua macroura	INC	INC
Zosterops senegalensis	INC	INC

The full description of the methodology used for this assessment can be downloaded here: Species Distribution Model

Download the full set of data for Ngala (CSV file).