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Climate change vulnerability assessments

The boundaries and names shown, and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations or IUCN

Name

Gagara

  • WDPA ID

    36424

  • Country

    NGA

  • IUCN category

    Not Reported

Species vulnerable to climate change

According to Traits-based Vulnerability Assessments (TVAs)

Vulnerable Species Total Species
Amphibian
1
23
Bird
35
354
Mammal
2
76
Total
38
453

8 % of bird, amphibian, and mammal species assessed are considered vulnerable to climate change

Expected species turnover

According to Species Distribution Models (SDMs)

Percentage of species turnover: Median (95% Confidence Interval)

by 2010-2039 by 2040-2069
Bird
  • 10.9%
  • 15.3%
  • 17.8%
  • 16.2%
  • 20.8%
  • 24.2%
Mammal
  • 10.9%
  • 17.2%
  • 21.4%
  • 15.8%
  • 20.8%
  • 25.6%
Amphibian
  • 13.4%
  • 24.5%
  • 33.5%
  • 16.5%
  • 35.5%
  • 47.6%

Vulnerable species

Name Order Exposure

by 2010-2039   by 2040-2069

 IUCN Red List category Sensitivity

to climate change

 Adaptability

to climate change
Caprimulgus europaeus Caprimulgiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Low reproductive capacity
Falco peregrinus Falconiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Low genetic diversity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Himantopus himantopus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Lybius vieilloti Piciformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Pelecanus onocrotalus Pelecaniformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Tringa totanus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Chelictinia riocourii Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
Ciconia nigra Ciconiiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Numenius arquata Charadriiformes
NT
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Rhinopomastus aterrimus Coraciiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Apus apus Apodiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Circus macrourus Falconiformes
NT
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Falco alopex Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
Falco subbuteo Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Ortyxelos meiffrenii Gruiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Anas acuta Anseriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Apus pallidus Apodiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Slow turnover of generations
Bucorvus abyssinicus Coraciiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Ciconia ciconia Ciconiiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Circus pygargus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Hieraaetus pennatus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Lymnocryptes minimus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Extrinsic barriers to dispersal
Tringa erythropus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Extrinsic barriers to dispersal
Circaetus gallicus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Tachymarptis melba Apodiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Upupa epops Coraciiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Circaetus beaudouini Falconiformes
VU
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Circus aeruginosus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Neophron percnopterus Falconiformes
EN
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Lybius leucocephalus Piciformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Aythya nyroca Anseriformes
NT
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Streptopelia turtur Columbiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Low reproductive capacity
Recurvirostra avosetta Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Pernis apivorus Falconiformes
LC
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Marmaronetta angustirostris Anseriformes
VU
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations

The full description of the methodology used for this assessment can be downloaded here: Traits-based Vulnerability Assessments

Expected changes in climate suitability

Name By 2010-2039 By 2040-2069
Lybius vieilloti
NO CHANGE
INC
Rhinopomastus aterrimus
NO CHANGE
INC
Torgos tracheliotos
INC
INC
Falco alopex
INC
INC
Ortyxelos meiffrenii
INC
INC
Accipiter erythropus
INC
INC
Glareola cinerea
INC
INC
Circaetus beaudouini
NO CHANGE
INC
Elminia longicauda
INC
INC
Struthio camelus
INC
INC
Ardeotis arabs
INC
INC
Streptopelia roseogrisea
INC
INC
Nectarinia chloropygia
INC
INC
Tauraco persa
INC
INC
Bubo poensis
INC
NO CHANGE
Bycanistes fistulator
INC
NO CHANGE
Pteronetta hartlaubii
INC
NO CHANGE
Campethera nivosa
NO CHANGE
INC
Cossypha cyanocampter
INC
INC
Nicator chloris
INC
INC
Baeopogon indicator
INC
NO CHANGE
Chlorocichla simplex
NO CHANGE
INC
Pogoniulus bilineatus
INC
INC
Sylvietta virens
NO CHANGE
INC
Sarothrura pulchra
INC
INC
Camaroptera chloronota
NO CHANGE
INC
Nectarinia verticalis
INC
INC
Nectarinia superba
INC
INC
Fraseria cinerascens
INC
INC
Muscicapa cassini
INC
NO CHANGE
Anthreptes rectirostris
NO CHANGE
INC
Glareola nuchalis
INC
INC
Illadopsis fulvescens
INC
INC
Corythaeola cristata
INC
NO CHANGE
Lamprotornis splendidus
INC
INC
Corvus ruficollis
INC
INC
Cursorius cursor
INC
INC
Turdoides fulva
INC
INC
Caprimulgus eximius
INC
INC
Tachymarptis aequatorialis
INC
NO CHANGE
Apalis rufogularis
INC
NO CHANGE
Scotopelia bouvieri
NO CHANGE
INC
Nectarinia rubescens
INC
NO CHANGE
Prinia leucopogon
NO CHANGE
INC
Bubo ascalaphus
NO CHANGE
INC
Tockus nasutus
INC
INC
Lybius bidentatus
INC
INC
Tigriornis leucolopha
INC
INC
Accipiter melanoleucus
INC
INC
Accipiter ovampensis
DEC
DEC
Accipiter tachiro
INC
INC
Acrocephalus gracilirostris
INC
INC
Acrocephalus rufescens
INC
INC
Aenigmatolimnas marginalis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Alaemon alaudipes
INC
INC
Alcedo leucogaster
NO CHANGE
INC
Alcedo quadribrachys
INC
INC
Alethe poliocephala
INC
NO CHANGE
Amadina fasciata
INC
INC
Amandava subflava
DEC
DEC
Ammomanes deserti
INC
INC
Anaplectes rubriceps
NO CHANGE
DEC
Anas capensis
DEC
DEC
Anas hottentota
DEC
DEC
Anas sparsa
INC
INC
Anastomus lamelligerus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Andropadus gracilirostris
INC
INC
Andropadus virens
INC
INC
Anomalospiza imberbis
INC
INC
Anthoscopus punctifrons
INC
INC
Anthreptes collaris
INC
INC
Anthreptes gabonicus
NO CHANGE
INC
Anthreptes longuemarei
NO CHANGE
DEC
Anthus similis
INC
INC
Apalis flavida
DEC
DEC
Apaloderma narina
NO CHANGE
DEC
Aplopelia larvata
INC
INC
Apus horus
INC
NO CHANGE
Aquila wahlbergi
INC
INC
Asio capensis
DEC
DEC
Aviceda cuculoides
INC
INC
Balaeniceps rex
INC
INC
Balearica pavonina
INC
INC
Batis erlangeri
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Bleda canicapillus
INC
INC
Bostrychia hagedash
NO CHANGE
INC
Bradypterus baboecala
INC
INC
Burhinus senegalensis
INC
INC
Buteo auguralis
INC
INC
Bycanistes subcylindricus
INC
INC
Calandrella cinerea
INC
NO CHANGE
Camaroptera brachyura
NO CHANGE
INC
Campephaga phoenicea
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Campephaga quiscalina
INC
NO CHANGE
Campethera abingoni
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Campethera cailliautii
NO CHANGE
INC
Campethera punctuligera
NO CHANGE
INC
Caprimulgus climacurus
NO CHANGE
INC
Caprimulgus inornatus
INC
INC
Caprimulgus natalensis
NO CHANGE
INC
Caprimulgus nigriscapularis
INC
INC
Caprimulgus tristigma
INC
INC
Centropus monachus
NO CHANGE
INC
Centropus senegalensis
INC
INC
Cercomela familiaris
INC
INC
Cercotrichas podobe
INC
INC
Charadrius marginatus
INC
INC
Chrysococcyx caprius
NO CHANGE
INC
Chrysococcyx cupreus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Ciconia abdimii
INC
INC
Ciconia episcopus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Cisticola aberrans
NO CHANGE
DEC
Cisticola aridulus
INC
INC
Cisticola brachypterus
INC
INC
Cisticola galactotes
NO CHANGE
DEC
Cisticola lateralis
INC
INC
Cisticola natalensis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Cisticola robustus
INC
INC
Cisticola ruficeps
INC
INC
Cisticola troglodytes
INC
INC
Colius striatus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Columba guinea
INC
INC
Coracias abyssinicus
INC
INC
Coracias naevia
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Coracina caesia
INC
NO CHANGE
Coracina pectoralis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Corvinella corvina
NO CHANGE
INC
Corvus rhipidurus
INC
INC
Cossypha heuglini
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Cossypha natalensis
INC
INC
Cossypha polioptera
INC
INC
Coturnix delegorguei
NO CHANGE
DEC
Crecopsis egregia
DEC
DEC
Cuculus solitarius
DEC
DEC
Dendrocopos obsoletus
INC
INC
Dendropicos elachus
NO CHANGE
INC
Dicrurus ludwigii
NO CHANGE
DEC
Dryoscopus gambensis
NO CHANGE
INC
Egretta ardesiaca
DEC
DEC
Egretta gularis
INC
INC
Emberiza cabanisi
INC
INC
Emberiza flaviventris
INC
INC
Emberiza striolata
INC
INC
Empidornis semipartitus
INC
INC
Eremomela icteropygialis
INC
INC
Eremomela pusilla
NO CHANGE
INC
Eremopterix leucotis
INC
INC
Eremopterix nigriceps
INC
INC
Erythropygia galactotes
INC
INC
Erythropygia leucosticta
INC
INC
Estrilda astrild
NO CHANGE
INC
Estrilda melpoda
INC
INC
Euplectes afer
INC
INC
Euplectes ardens
INC
INC
Euplectes hordeaceus
INC
INC
Euplectes macroura
INC
INC
Eupodotis melanogaster
INC
INC
Euschistospiza dybowskii
INC
INC
Falco chicquera
INC
INC
Francolinus ahantensis
NO CHANGE
INC
Francolinus albogularis
INC
INC
Francolinus clappertoni
INC
INC
Francolinus coqui
INC
INC
Francolinus icterorhynchus
INC
INC
Francolinus squamatus
INC
INC
Glaucidium perlatum
NO CHANGE
INC
Guttera pucherani
INC
INC
Gypohierax angolensis
INC
INC
Halcyon leucocephala
NO CHANGE
INC
Halcyon senegalensis
NO CHANGE
INC
Haliaeetus vocifer
NO CHANGE
INC
Hieraaetus ayresii
INC
INC
Hippolais pallida
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Hirundo abyssinica
NO CHANGE
DEC
Hirundo lucida
INC
INC
Hirundo nigrita
INC
NO CHANGE
Hirundo obsoleta
INC
INC
Hylia prasina
INC
INC
Hyliota flavigaster
INC
INC
Illadopsis puveli
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Indicator exilis
INC
INC
Indicator indicator
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Indicator willcocksi
INC
INC
Lagonosticta larvata
INC
INC
Lagonosticta rhodopareia
INC
INC
Lagonosticta rubricata
INC
INC
Lagonosticta rufopicta
INC
INC
Lagonosticta senegala
NO CHANGE
INC
Lamprotornis chalybaeus
INC
INC
Lamprotornis purpureus
NO CHANGE
INC
Laniarius aethiopicus
INC
INC
Laniarius erythrogaster
INC
INC
Lanius collaris
INC
INC
Lanius excubitoroides
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Lonchura bicolor
INC
INC
Lonchura cucullata
DEC
DEC
Lonchura fringilloides
INC
INC
Lophaetus occipitalis
NO CHANGE
INC
Malaconotus blanchoti
NO CHANGE
DEC
Malimbus nitens
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Mandingoa nitidula
INC
NO CHANGE
Melocichla mentalis
INC
INC
Merops albicollis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Merops nubicus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Merops variegatus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Mesopicos goertae
INC
INC
Microparra capensis
INC
INC
Mirafra africana
DEC
DEC
Mirafra albicauda
INC
INC
Mirafra cantillans
INC
INC
Mirafra cordofanica
INC
INC
Motacilla aguimp
INC
INC
Motacilla clara
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Muscicapa caerulescens
INC
INC
Muscicapa gambagae
INC
INC
Myioparus plumbeus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Myrmecocichla nigra
NO CHANGE
INC
Nectarinia coccinigaster
INC
INC
Nectarinia olivacea
INC
INC
Nectarinia pulchella
NO CHANGE
INC
Nectarinia venusta
INC
INC
Neotis denhami
INC
INC
Nigrita bicolor
NO CHANGE
INC
Numida meleagris
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Oena capensis
INC
INC
Oenanthe heuglini
INC
INC
Oriolus auratus
INC
INC
Pachycoccyx audeberti
DEC
DEC
Passer griseus
NO CHANGE
INC
Passer luteus
INC
INC
Pelecanus rufescens
INC
INC
Petronia pyrgita
INC
INC
Phoeniconaias minor
INC
NO CHANGE
Phoenicopterus roseus
INC
INC
Phoeniculus purpureus
INC
INC
Phyllanthus atripennis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Phyllolais pulchella
INC
INC
Pinarocorys erythropygia
INC
INC
Platalea alba
NO CHANGE
INC
Platysteira cyanea
INC
INC
Ploceus melanocephalus
INC
INC
Ploceus nigerrimus
NO CHANGE
INC
Ploceus superciliosus
INC
INC
Pluvianus aegyptius
INC
INC
Pogoniulus chrysoconus
NO CHANGE
INC
Poicephalus robustus
DEC
DEC
Polyboroides typus
DEC
DEC
Prionops caniceps
NO CHANGE
INC
Prionops plumatus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Prodotiscus regulus
INC
INC
Psalidoprocne pristoptera
INC
INC
Pseudhirundo griseopyga
DEC
DEC
Pterocles lichtensteinii
INC
INC
Pterocles quadricinctus
INC
INC
Pterocles senegallus
INC
INC
Ptilopachus petrosus
INC
INC
Ptilostomus afer
INC
INC
Pyrenestes ostrinus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Pyrrhurus scandens
INC
INC
Pytilia hypogrammica
INC
INC
Pytilia melba
INC
INC
Quelea erythrops
INC
INC
Rallus caerulescens
INC
INC
Rhinoptilus chalcopterus
NO CHANGE
INC
Rynchops flavirostris
INC
INC
Schoenicola brevirostris
INC
INC
Scotopelia peli
DEC
DEC
Sheppardia bocagei
INC
NO CHANGE
Spermophaga haematina
INC
INC
Spiloptila clamans
INC
INC
Stephanoaetus coronatus
INC
INC
Stigmatopelia senegalensis
NO CHANGE
INC
Streptopelia semitorquata
DEC
DEC
Streptopelia vinacea
INC
INC
Strix woodfordii
INC
INC
Sylvietta brachyura
NO CHANGE
INC
Tauraco leucolophus
INC
INC
Tchagra minutus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Telophorus multicolor
NO CHANGE
INC
Terathopius ecaudatus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Thalassornis leuconotus
INC
INC
Thamnolaea cinnamomeiventris
NO CHANGE
DEC
Tockus fasciatus
INC
INC
Trachyphonus margaritatus
INC
INC
Turdoides plebejus
INC
INC
Turnix hottentottus
INC
NO CHANGE
Turtur abyssinicus
NO CHANGE
INC
Turtur afer
INC
INC
Turtur tympanistria
INC
INC
Uraeginthus bengalus
INC
INC
Urocolius macrourus
INC
INC
Vanellus albiceps
NO CHANGE
INC
Vanellus crassirostris
INC
INC
Vanellus lugubris
INC
INC
Vanellus spinosus
INC
INC
Vanellus tectus
NO CHANGE
INC
Vidua camerunensis
INC
INC
Vidua chalybeata
NO CHANGE
INC
Vidua togoensis
INC
INC
Vidua wilsoni
INC
INC

The full description of the methodology used for this assessment can be downloaded here: Species Distribution Model

Download the full set of data for Gagara (CSV file).

< Return to Official Record for Gagara