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Climate change vulnerability assessments

The boundaries and names shown, and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations or IUCN

Name

Gundulwa

  • WDPA ID

    36429

  • Country

    NGA

  • IUCN category

    Not Reported

Species vulnerable to climate change

According to Traits-based Vulnerability Assessments (TVAs)

Vulnerable Species Total Species
Amphibian
1
21
Bird
38
327
Mammal
4
71
Total
43
419

10 % of bird, amphibian, and mammal species assessed are considered vulnerable to climate change

Expected species turnover

According to Species Distribution Models (SDMs)

Percentage of species turnover: Median (95% Confidence Interval)

by 2010-2039 by 2040-2069
Bird
  • 8.2%
  • 11.3%
  • 19.2%
  • 11.7%
  • 16.0%
  • 27.9%
Mammal
  • 11.3%
  • 13.8%
  • 23.6%
  • 14.4%
  • 20.5%
  • 36.6%
Amphibian
  • 12.6%
  • 22.0%
  • 35.6%
  • 15.9%
  • 28.8%
  • 40.8%

Vulnerable species

Name Order Exposure

by 2010-2039   by 2040-2069

 IUCN Red List category Sensitivity

to climate change

 Adaptability

to climate change
Caprimulgus europaeus Caprimulgiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Low reproductive capacity
Falco peregrinus Falconiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Low genetic diversity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Himantopus himantopus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Lybius vieilloti Piciformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Pelecanus onocrotalus Pelecaniformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Tringa totanus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Anas crecca Anseriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Chelictinia riocourii Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
Ciconia nigra Ciconiiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Numenius arquata Charadriiformes
NT
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Rhinopomastus aterrimus Coraciiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Torgos tracheliotos Falconiformes
VU
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Apus apus Apodiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Circus macrourus Falconiformes
NT
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Falco alopex Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
Falco subbuteo Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Ortyxelos meiffrenii Gruiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Anas acuta Anseriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Apus pallidus Apodiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Slow turnover of generations
Bucorvus abyssinicus Coraciiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Ciconia ciconia Ciconiiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Circus pygargus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Hieraaetus pennatus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Lymnocryptes minimus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Extrinsic barriers to dispersal
Tringa erythropus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Extrinsic barriers to dispersal
Circaetus gallicus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Upupa epops Coraciiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Circaetus beaudouini Falconiformes
VU
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Circus aeruginosus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Neophron percnopterus Falconiformes
EN
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Lybius leucocephalus Piciformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Aythya nyroca Anseriformes
NT
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Streptopelia turtur Columbiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Low reproductive capacity
Struthio camelus Struthioniformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Recurvirostra avosetta Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Streptopelia roseogrisea Columbiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Gyps fulvus Falconiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Pernis apivorus Falconiformes
LC
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity

The full description of the methodology used for this assessment can be downloaded here: Traits-based Vulnerability Assessments

Expected changes in climate suitability

Name By 2010-2039 By 2040-2069
Chelictinia riocourii
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Ortyxelos meiffrenii
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Accipiter erythropus
INC
INC
Glareola cinerea
INC
INC
Elminia longicauda
INC
INC
Lybius leucocephalus
DEC
NO CHANGE
Ardeotis arabs
INC
INC
Streptopelia roseogrisea
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia chloropygia
NO CHANGE
INC
Telacanthura ussheri
INC
INC
Campethera nivosa
NO CHANGE
INC
Nectarinia verticalis
NO CHANGE
INC
Nectarinia superba
INC
NO CHANGE
Glareola nuchalis
INC
INC
Lamprotornis splendidus
NO CHANGE
INC
Corvus ruficollis
INC
INC
Cursorius cursor
INC
INC
Turdoides fulva
NO CHANGE
INC
Caprimulgus eximius
INC
INC
Bubo ascalaphus
NO CHANGE
INC
Tigriornis leucolopha
NO CHANGE
INC
Accipiter melanoleucus
INC
INC
Accipiter ovampensis
DEC
NO CHANGE
Accipiter tachiro
NO CHANGE
INC
Acrocephalus gracilirostris
NO CHANGE
INC
Acrocephalus rufescens
NO CHANGE
INC
Aenigmatolimnas marginalis
DEC
DEC
Agapornis pullarius
INC
INC
Alaemon alaudipes
NO CHANGE
INC
Alcedo quadribrachys
INC
INC
Ammomanes deserti
INC
INC
Anaplectes rubriceps
INC
INC
Anas capensis
NO CHANGE
INC
Anas hottentota
DEC
DEC
Anas sparsa
INC
INC
Anastomus lamelligerus
DEC
DEC
Andropadus gracilirostris
NO CHANGE
INC
Andropadus virens
INC
NO CHANGE
Anomalospiza imberbis
INC
INC
Anthoscopus punctifrons
INC
INC
Anthreptes longuemarei
INC
INC
Anthus similis
INC
INC
Apalis flavida
NO CHANGE
INC
Apaloderma narina
DEC
NO CHANGE
Aplopelia larvata
NO CHANGE
INC
Apus caffer
NO CHANGE
DEC
Aquila rapax
NO CHANGE
DEC
Aquila wahlbergi
DEC
NO CHANGE
Ardea melanocephala
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Ardeola ralloides
INC
NO CHANGE
Asio capensis
INC
INC
Aviceda cuculoides
INC
INC
Balaeniceps rex
INC
INC
Balearica pavonina
INC
INC
Batis erlangeri
NO CHANGE
INC
Batis orientalis
INC
INC
Bradypterus baboecala
INC
INC
Bubo africanus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Campephaga phoenicea
INC
INC
Campethera cailliautii
NO CHANGE
INC
Caprimulgus inornatus
INC
INC
Caprimulgus natalensis
INC
INC
Caprimulgus tristigma
INC
INC
Centropus monachus
INC
INC
Cercomela familiaris
INC
NO CHANGE
Charadrius forbesi
INC
INC
Charadrius marginatus
INC
INC
Charadrius pecuarius
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Chlorocichla flavicollis
INC
INC
Ciconia episcopus
DEC
DEC
Circaetus cinereus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Cisticola aridulus
DEC
DEC
Cisticola brachypterus
INC
INC
Cisticola erythrops
INC
INC
Cisticola guinea
INC
INC
Cisticola lateralis
NO CHANGE
INC
Cisticola ruficeps
INC
INC
Cisticola troglodytes
INC
INC
Colius striatus
INC
INC
Columba guinea
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Coracias cyanogaster
INC
INC
Coracina pectoralis
INC
INC
Corvinella corvina
INC
INC
Corvus rhipidurus
INC
INC
Cossypha albicapilla
INC
INC
Cossypha heuglini
INC
INC
Cossypha natalensis
INC
NO CHANGE
Coturnix delegorguei
DEC
DEC
Cuculus solitarius
INC
INC
Cypsiurus parvus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Dendropicos elachus
INC
INC
Dendropicos fuscescens
INC
INC
Dicrurus ludwigii
INC
INC
Egretta gularis
INC
INC
Emberiza cabanisi
INC
INC
Emberiza flaviventris
INC
INC
Emberiza striolata
INC
INC
Eremomela icteropygialis
INC
INC
Eremopterix nigriceps
INC
INC
Erythropygia galactotes
INC
INC
Estrilda astrild
INC
INC
Estrilda melpoda
INC
INC
Euplectes afer
INC
INC
Euplectes ardens
NO CHANGE
INC
Euplectes axillaris
INC
INC
Euplectes hordeaceus
NO CHANGE
INC
Euplectes macroura
INC
INC
Eupodotis savilei
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Falco biarmicus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Francolinus albogularis
INC
INC
Francolinus clappertoni
INC
INC
Francolinus coqui
INC
INC
Gypohierax angolensis
INC
INC
Hieraaetus ayresii
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Hieraaetus spilogaster
NO CHANGE
DEC
Hirundo aethiopica
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Hirundo fuligula
DEC
NO CHANGE
Hirundo leucosoma
INC
INC
Hirundo lucida
INC
INC
Hirundo obsoleta
NO CHANGE
INC
Hylia prasina
NO CHANGE
INC
Hyliota flavigaster
INC
INC
Hypergerus atriceps
INC
INC
Indicator exilis
INC
NO CHANGE
Indicator maculatus
INC
NO CHANGE
Lagonosticta larvata
INC
INC
Lagonosticta rara
INC
INC
Lagonosticta rubricata
INC
INC
Lagonosticta rufopicta
INC
INC
Lamprotornis pulcher
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Laniarius aethiopicus
INC
INC
Laniarius erythrogaster
INC
INC
Lanius collaris
NO CHANGE
INC
Lanius excubitoroides
INC
INC
Lanius gubernator
INC
NO CHANGE
Leptoptilos crumeniferus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Lonchura bicolor
INC
NO CHANGE
Lonchura cantans
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Lonchura cucullata
INC
INC
Lonchura fringilloides
NO CHANGE
INC
Lybius guifsobalito
NO CHANGE
INC
Macrodipteryx longipennis
INC
INC
Malaconotus blanchoti
INC
INC
Melierax gabar
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Melierax metabates
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Melocichla mentalis
INC
INC
Merops albicollis
NO CHANGE
INC
Merops hirundineus
INC
INC
Merops variegatus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Mesopicos goertae
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Microparra capensis
INC
INC
Mirafra africana
INC
INC
Mirafra cordofanica
INC
INC
Motacilla aguimp
INC
INC
Muscicapa caerulescens
INC
NO CHANGE
Muscicapa gambagae
INC
INC
Musophaga violacea
INC
INC
Myioparus plumbeus
INC
INC
Myrmecocichla nigra
NO CHANGE
INC
Nectarinia coccinigaster
INC
INC
Nectarinia cuprea
INC
INC
Nectarinia olivacea
NO CHANGE
INC
Nectarinia senegalensis
DEC
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia venusta
INC
INC
Nesocharis capistrata
INC
INC
Numida meleagris
INC
INC
Oena capensis
INC
INC
Oenanthe heuglini
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Onychognathus morio
INC
INC
Oriolus auratus
INC
INC
Otus leucotis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Pelecanus rufescens
INC
INC
Petronia dentata
INC
NO CHANGE
Petronia pyrgita
INC
INC
Phoenicopterus roseus
INC
INC
Platysteira cyanea
NO CHANGE
INC
Plegadis falcinellus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Ploceus melanocephalus
INC
INC
Ploceus nigricollis
NO CHANGE
INC
Ploceus superciliosus
NO CHANGE
INC
Poicephalus meyeri
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Poicephalus robustus
NO CHANGE
INC
Polyboroides typus
DEC
NO CHANGE
Prionops plumatus
DEC
NO CHANGE
Prodotiscus regulus
INC
INC
Psalidoprocne obscura
INC
INC
Psalidoprocne pristoptera
INC
INC
Pterocles lichtensteinii
NO CHANGE
INC
Pterocles senegallus
INC
INC
Pyrrhurus scandens
NO CHANGE
INC
Pytilia melba
DEC
DEC
Pytilia phoenicoptera
INC
INC
Quelea erythrops
INC
INC
Rynchops flavirostris
INC
INC
Sagittarius serpentarius
NO CHANGE
DEC
Scotopelia peli
INC
INC
Serinus gularis
INC
INC
Spiloptila clamans
INC
INC
Sporopipes frontalis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Stephanoaetus coronatus
INC
INC
Strix woodfordii
NO CHANGE
INC
Tauraco leucolophus
INC
NO CHANGE
Tchagra minutus
INC
INC
Terathopius ecaudatus
DEC
DEC
Thalassornis leuconotus
INC
INC
Thamnolaea cinnamomeiventris
DEC
DEC
Threskiornis aethiopicus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Trachyphonus margaritatus
INC
INC
Treron calvus
INC
INC
Turdoides reinwardii
INC
INC
Turtur afer
INC
INC
Uraeginthus bengalus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Vanellus crassirostris
NO CHANGE
INC
Vidua camerunensis
NO CHANGE
INC
Vidua interjecta
INC
INC
Vidua larvaticola
INC
NO CHANGE
Vidua wilsoni
NO CHANGE
INC

The full description of the methodology used for this assessment can be downloaded here: Species Distribution Model

Download the full set of data for Gundulwa (CSV file).

< Return to Official Record for Gundulwa