Climate change vulnerability assessments

The boundaries and names shown, and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations or IUCN

Name

Gardemna

  • WDPA ID

    36465

  • Country

    NGA

  • IUCN category

    Not Reported

Species vulnerable to climate change

According to Traits-based Vulnerability Assessments (TVAs)

Vulnerable Species Total Species
Amphibian
2
27
Bird
33
325
Mammal
4
85
Total
39
437

8 % of bird, amphibian, and mammal species assessed are considered vulnerable to climate change

Expected species turnover

According to Species Distribution Models (SDMs)

Percentage of species turnover: Median (95% Confidence Interval)

by 2010-2039 by 2040-2069
Bird
  • 9.5%
  • 11.9%
  • 22.5%
  • 13.9%
  • 20.5%
  • 32.2%
Mammal
  • 9.6%
  • 11.6%
  • 17.9%
  • 12.2%
  • 21.1%
  • 32.6%
Amphibian
  • 9.0%
  • 12.3%
  • 32.2%
  • 11.2%
  • 26.5%
  • 48.7%

Vulnerable species

Name Order Exposure

by 2010-2039   by 2040-2069

IUCN Red List category Sensitivity

to climate change

Adaptability

to climate change

Caprimulgus europaeus Caprimulgiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Low reproductive capacity
Falco peregrinus Falconiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Low genetic diversity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Himantopus himantopus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Lybius vieilloti Piciformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Pelecanus onocrotalus Pelecaniformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Tringa totanus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Chelictinia riocourii Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
Rhinopomastus aterrimus Coraciiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Torgos tracheliotos Falconiformes
VU
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Apus apus Apodiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Circus macrourus Falconiformes
NT
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Falco alopex Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
Falco subbuteo Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Anas acuta Anseriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Apus pallidus Apodiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Slow turnover of generations
Bucorvus abyssinicus Coraciiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Ciconia ciconia Ciconiiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Circus pygargus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Hieraaetus pennatus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Lymnocryptes minimus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Extrinsic barriers to dispersal
Tringa erythropus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Extrinsic barriers to dispersal
Circaetus gallicus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Tachymarptis melba Apodiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Upupa epops Coraciiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Circaetus beaudouini Falconiformes
VU
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Circus aeruginosus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Neophron percnopterus Falconiformes
EN
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Lybius leucocephalus Piciformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Aythya nyroca Anseriformes
NT
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Streptopelia turtur Columbiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Low reproductive capacity
Struthio camelus Struthioniformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Recurvirostra avosetta Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Pernis apivorus Falconiformes
LC
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity

The full description of the methodology used for this assessment can be downloaded here: Traits-based Vulnerability Assessments

Expected changes in climate suitability

Name By 2010-2039 By 2040-2069
Lybius vieilloti
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Chelictinia riocourii
NO CHANGE
DEC
Rhinopomastus aterrimus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Falco alopex
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Ortyxelos meiffrenii
INC
INC
Bucorvus abyssinicus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Accipiter erythropus
INC
INC
Elminia longicauda
INC
INC
Lybius leucocephalus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Ardeotis arabs
INC
INC
Streptopelia roseogrisea
INC
INC
Nectarinia chloropygia
INC
INC
Telacanthura ussheri
INC
INC
Bycanistes fistulator
INC
NO CHANGE
Campethera nivosa
INC
INC
Cossypha cyanocampter
NO CHANGE
INC
Nicator chloris
INC
INC
Pogoniulus bilineatus
INC
INC
Sylvietta virens
INC
INC
Sarothrura pulchra
INC
NO CHANGE
Camaroptera chloronota
INC
INC
Nectarinia verticalis
INC
INC
Nectarinia superba
INC
INC
Fraseria cinerascens
NO CHANGE
INC
Glareola nuchalis
INC
INC
Illadopsis fulvescens
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Lamprotornis splendidus
INC
INC
Corvus ruficollis
NO CHANGE
INC
Tachymarptis aequatorialis
NO CHANGE
INC
Scotopelia bouvieri
INC
NO CHANGE
Tockus nasutus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Lybius bidentatus
NO CHANGE
INC
Tigriornis leucolopha
INC
INC
Accipiter melanoleucus
INC
INC
Accipiter ovampensis
DEC
NO CHANGE
Accipiter tachiro
INC
INC
Acrocephalus gracilirostris
INC
INC
Acrocephalus rufescens
INC
INC
Aenigmatolimnas marginalis
INC
INC
Agapornis pullarius
INC
INC
Alcedo leucogaster
NO CHANGE
INC
Alcedo quadribrachys
INC
INC
Alethe diademata
INC
NO CHANGE
Amadina fasciata
INC
INC
Amandava subflava
INC
INC
Ammomanes deserti
NO CHANGE
INC
Anaplectes rubriceps
DEC
DEC
Anas capensis
INC
NO CHANGE
Anas hottentota
DEC
NO CHANGE
Anas sparsa
INC
INC
Andropadus gracilirostris
INC
NO CHANGE
Andropadus virens
INC
NO CHANGE
Anthoscopus punctifrons
INC
INC
Anthreptes collaris
INC
INC
Anthreptes gabonicus
NO CHANGE
INC
Anthreptes longuemarei
DEC
DEC
Anthreptes platurus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Anthus leucophrys
DEC
DEC
Anthus similis
INC
INC
Apalis flavida
INC
INC
Apus caffer
NO CHANGE
DEC
Aquila rapax
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Aquila wahlbergi
INC
INC
Ardea melanocephala
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Asio capensis
INC
INC
Aviceda cuculoides
INC
INC
Balaeniceps rex
INC
INC
Balearica pavonina
INC
INC
Batis erlangeri
INC
INC
Batis orientalis
NO CHANGE
INC
Bleda canicapillus
INC
INC
Bradypterus baboecala
NO CHANGE
INC
Bubalornis albirostris
INC
INC
Bubo africanus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Burhinus senegalensis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Campethera abingoni
INC
INC
Campethera cailliautii
INC
INC
Caprimulgus inornatus
INC
INC
Caprimulgus natalensis
INC
INC
Caprimulgus nigriscapularis
INC
NO CHANGE
Caprimulgus tristigma
INC
INC
Centropus monachus
INC
INC
Cercomela familiaris
INC
INC
Charadrius forbesi
INC
INC
Charadrius marginatus
INC
INC
Charadrius pecuarius
NO CHANGE
DEC
Chrysococcyx cupreus
DEC
DEC
Circaetus cinerascens
NO CHANGE
DEC
Circaetus cinereus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Cisticola aberrans
DEC
DEC
Cisticola aridulus
INC
INC
Cisticola brachypterus
INC
INC
Cisticola cantans
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Cisticola erythrops
DEC
DEC
Cisticola guinea
DEC
NO CHANGE
Cisticola lateralis
INC
INC
Cisticola ruficeps
INC
INC
Cisticola troglodytes
INC
INC
Clamator glandarius
NO CHANGE
DEC
Colius striatus
INC
INC
Columba guinea
NO CHANGE
DEC
Coracias abyssinicus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Coracias cyanogaster
INC
INC
Coracias naevia
DEC
DEC
Coracina pectoralis
DEC
DEC
Corvinella corvina
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Corvus rhipidurus
INC
INC
Cossypha albicapilla
INC
INC
Cossypha heuglini
INC
INC
Cossypha natalensis
INC
NO CHANGE
Coturnix delegorguei
INC
INC
Cuculus clamosus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Cuculus gularis
DEC
DEC
Cuculus solitarius
DEC
NO CHANGE
Cypsiurus parvus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Dendrocopos obsoletus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Dendropicos fuscescens
INC
INC
Dicrurus ludwigii
INC
INC
Dryoscopus gambensis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Egretta ardesiaca
INC
INC
Egretta gularis
INC
INC
Emberiza cabanisi
INC
INC
Emberiza flaviventris
INC
INC
Emberiza striolata
NO CHANGE
INC
Emberiza tahapisi
DEC
NO CHANGE
Eremomela icteropygialis
INC
INC
Eremopterix nigriceps
INC
INC
Erythropygia galactotes
INC
INC
Estrilda astrild
INC
INC
Estrilda melpoda
INC
INC
Euplectes afer
INC
INC
Euplectes ardens
INC
INC
Euplectes axillaris
INC
INC
Euplectes franciscanus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Euplectes hordeaceus
INC
INC
Euplectes macroura
INC
INC
Eupodotis senegalensis
DEC
NO CHANGE
Euschistospiza dybowskii
INC
NO CHANGE
Falco biarmicus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Falco chicquera
NO CHANGE
DEC
Falco cuvierii
NO CHANGE
DEC
Francolinus ahantensis
INC
NO CHANGE
Francolinus clappertoni
INC
INC
Francolinus coqui
INC
INC
Francolinus icterorhynchus
INC
NO CHANGE
Gypohierax angolensis
INC
INC
Halcyon chelicuti
DEC
DEC
Heliolais erythropterus
DEC
DEC
Hieraaetus ayresii
INC
INC
Hieraaetus spilogaster
NO CHANGE
DEC
Hippolais pallida
INC
INC
Hirundo fuligula
DEC
DEC
Hirundo leucosoma
INC
INC
Hirundo lucida
INC
INC
Hirundo preussi
INC
INC
Hirundo senegalensis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Hylia prasina
INC
INC
Hyliota flavigaster
INC
INC
Illadopsis puveli
NO CHANGE
INC
Indicator exilis
INC
NO CHANGE
Indicator indicator
DEC
DEC
Indicator maculatus
INC
INC
Indicator minor
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Indicator willcocksi
INC
NO CHANGE
Lagonosticta larvata
INC
INC
Lagonosticta rara
INC
INC
Lagonosticta rhodopareia
INC
NO CHANGE
Lagonosticta rubricata
INC
INC
Lagonosticta senegala
NO CHANGE
DEC
Lamprotornis caudatus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Lamprotornis chalcurus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Lamprotornis chalybaeus
INC
INC
Lamprotornis chloropterus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Laniarius aethiopicus
INC
INC
Laniarius erythrogaster
INC
INC
Lanius collaris
INC
INC
Lanius excubitoroides
INC
INC
Lanius gubernator
DEC
DEC
Leptoptilos crumeniferus
INC
INC
Lonchura bicolor
INC
INC
Lonchura cantans
DEC
DEC
Lonchura cucullata
NO CHANGE
DEC
Lonchura fringilloides
INC
INC
Lybius guifsobalito
INC
INC
Macheiramphus alcinus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Macrodipteryx longipennis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Malaconotus blanchoti
DEC
DEC
Melaenornis edolioides
NO CHANGE
DEC
Melierax gabar
DEC
DEC
Melierax metabates
NO CHANGE
DEC
Melocichla mentalis
INC
INC
Merops hirundineus
DEC
DEC
Merops pusillus
DEC
DEC
Merops variegatus
NO CHANGE
INC
Mesopicos goertae
NO CHANGE
DEC
Microparra capensis
INC
INC
Mirafra africana
INC
INC
Mirafra albicauda
INC
INC
Mirafra cantillans
INC
INC
Mirafra cordofanica
INC
NO CHANGE
Mirafra rufocinnamomea
DEC
NO CHANGE
Motacilla aguimp
INC
INC
Motacilla clara
NO CHANGE
INC
Muscicapa caerulescens
INC
NO CHANGE
Muscicapa gambagae
INC
INC
Myioparus plumbeus
INC
INC
Myrmecocichla nigra
INC
INC
Necrosyrtes monachus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Nectarinia coccinigaster
INC
INC
Nectarinia cuprea
INC
INC
Nectarinia olivacea
INC
INC
Nectarinia pulchella
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia venusta
INC
INC
Neotis denhami
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Nesocharis capistrata
INC
NO CHANGE
Nigrita bicolor
NO CHANGE
INC
Nilaus afer
NO CHANGE
DEC
Numida meleagris
DEC
DEC
Oena capensis
INC
INC
Oenanthe heuglini
INC
INC
Onychognathus morio
INC
INC
Oriolus auratus
INC
INC
Otus leucotis
DEC
DEC
Otus senegalensis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Pachycoccyx audeberti
INC
NO CHANGE
Petronia pyrgita
NO CHANGE
INC
Phoenicopterus roseus
INC
INC
Phyllolais pulchella
INC
INC
Platysteira cyanea
INC
INC
Plectropterus gambensis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Plegadis falcinellus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Ploceus melanocephalus
INC
INC
Ploceus nigerrimus
NO CHANGE
INC
Ploceus nigricollis
NO CHANGE
INC
Ploceus superciliosus
INC
INC
Ploceus vitellinus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Poicephalus meyeri
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Poicephalus robustus
NO CHANGE
INC
Polemaetus bellicosus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Prinia subflava
NO CHANGE
DEC
Prionops caniceps
INC
INC
Prodotiscus regulus
INC
INC
Psalidoprocne obscura
INC
INC
Psalidoprocne pristoptera
INC
INC
Pterocles lichtensteinii
NO CHANGE
INC
Pterocles quadricinctus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Ptilopachus petrosus
DEC
DEC
Ptilostomus afer
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Pyrenestes ostrinus
INC
INC
Pyrrhurus scandens
INC
INC
Pytilia hypogrammica
INC
INC
Pytilia melba
INC
INC
Pytilia phoenicoptera
INC
INC
Quelea erythrops
INC
INC
Sagittarius serpentarius
NO CHANGE
DEC
Schoenicola brevirostris
INC
NO CHANGE
Serinus gularis
DEC
NO CHANGE
Serinus mozambicus
DEC
DEC
Spermophaga haematina
NO CHANGE
INC
Sporopipes frontalis
INC
INC
Stephanoaetus coronatus
INC
INC
Strix woodfordii
INC
INC
Sylvietta brachyura
NO CHANGE
DEC
Tauraco leucolophus
INC
INC
Tchagra senegalus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Telophorus multicolor
NO CHANGE
INC
Telophorus sulfureopectus
DEC
DEC
Terathopius ecaudatus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Thalassornis leuconotus
INC
INC
Thamnolaea cinnamomeiventris
INC
INC
Tockus fasciatus
INC
INC
Treron calvus
DEC
NO CHANGE
Turdoides plebejus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Turdoides reinwardii
INC
INC
Turtur tympanistria
INC
NO CHANGE
Uraeginthus bengalus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Urocolius macrourus
INC
INC
Vanellus crassirostris
INC
INC
Vanellus spinosus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Vidua camerunensis
INC
INC
Vidua chalybeata
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Vidua interjecta
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Vidua larvaticola
INC
INC
Vidua paradisaea
NO CHANGE
DEC
Vidua togoensis
INC
INC
Vidua wilsoni
INC
INC
Zosterops senegalensis
NO CHANGE
DEC

The full description of the methodology used for this assessment can be downloaded here: Species Distribution Model