Climate change vulnerability assessments

The boundaries and names shown, and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations or IUCN

Name

Dukku

  • WDPA ID

    36473

  • Country

    NGA

  • IUCN category

    Not Reported

Species vulnerable to climate change

According to Traits-based Vulnerability Assessments (TVAs)

Vulnerable Species Total Species
Amphibian
1
25
Bird
35
346
Mammal
2
79
Total
38
450

8 % of bird, amphibian, and mammal species assessed are considered vulnerable to climate change

Expected species turnover

According to Species Distribution Models (SDMs)

Percentage of species turnover: Median (95% Confidence Interval)

by 2010-2039 by 2040-2069
Bird
  • 8.1%
  • 10.9%
  • 16.0%
  • 11.7%
  • 15.1%
  • 24.6%
Mammal
  • 10.3%
  • 13.3%
  • 16.5%
  • 12.5%
  • 19.0%
  • 28.0%
Amphibian
  • 9.3%
  • 16.4%
  • 24.1%
  • 12.3%
  • 22.9%
  • 31.4%

Vulnerable species

Name Order Exposure

by 2010-2039   by 2040-2069

IUCN Red List category Sensitivity

to climate change

Adaptability

to climate change

Caprimulgus europaeus Caprimulgiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Low reproductive capacity
Falco peregrinus Falconiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Low genetic diversity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Himantopus himantopus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Lybius vieilloti Piciformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Pelecanus onocrotalus Pelecaniformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Tringa totanus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Chelictinia riocourii Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
Ciconia nigra Ciconiiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Rhinopomastus aterrimus Coraciiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Apus apus Apodiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Circus macrourus Falconiformes
NT
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Falco alopex Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
Falco subbuteo Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Anas acuta Anseriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Apus pallidus Apodiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Slow turnover of generations
Bucorvus abyssinicus Coraciiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Ciconia ciconia Ciconiiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Circus pygargus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Hieraaetus pennatus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Lymnocryptes minimus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Extrinsic barriers to dispersal
Tringa erythropus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Extrinsic barriers to dispersal
Circaetus gallicus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Tachymarptis melba Apodiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Upupa epops Coraciiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Circaetus beaudouini Falconiformes
VU
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Circus aeruginosus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Neophron percnopterus Falconiformes
EN
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Elminia longicauda Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Lybius leucocephalus Piciformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Aythya nyroca Anseriformes
NT
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Streptopelia turtur Columbiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Low reproductive capacity
Struthio camelus Struthioniformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Recurvirostra avosetta Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Gyps fulvus Falconiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Pernis apivorus Falconiformes
LC
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity

The full description of the methodology used for this assessment can be downloaded here: Traits-based Vulnerability Assessments

Expected changes in climate suitability

Name By 2010-2039 By 2040-2069
Chelictinia riocourii
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Torgos tracheliotos
INC
INC
Ortyxelos meiffrenii
INC
INC
Accipiter erythropus
INC
INC
Glareola cinerea
INC
INC
Elminia longicauda
INC
INC
Ardeotis arabs
INC
INC
Streptopelia roseogrisea
INC
INC
Nectarinia chloropygia
INC
INC
Telacanthura ussheri
INC
INC
Tauraco persa
INC
INC
Campethera nivosa
NO CHANGE
INC
Cossypha cyanocampter
INC
INC
Nicator chloris
INC
INC
Pogoniulus bilineatus
NO CHANGE
INC
Sylvietta virens
NO CHANGE
INC
Camaroptera chloronota
INC
INC
Nectarinia verticalis
INC
INC
Fraseria cinerascens
INC
INC
Glareola nuchalis
INC
INC
Illadopsis fulvescens
NO CHANGE
INC
Lamprotornis splendidus
NO CHANGE
INC
Corvus ruficollis
NO CHANGE
INC
Cursorius cursor
NO CHANGE
INC
Caprimulgus eximius
INC
INC
Tachymarptis aequatorialis
NO CHANGE
INC
Lybius bidentatus
NO CHANGE
INC
Tigriornis leucolopha
INC
INC
Accipiter melanoleucus
INC
INC
Accipiter tachiro
NO CHANGE
INC
Acrocephalus gracilirostris
NO CHANGE
INC
Acrocephalus rufescens
INC
INC
Aenigmatolimnas marginalis
DEC
NO CHANGE
Alaemon alaudipes
NO CHANGE
INC
Alcedo cristata
INC
NO CHANGE
Alcedo leucogaster
NO CHANGE
INC
Alcedo quadribrachys
INC
INC
Alopochen aegyptiaca
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Amadina fasciata
INC
INC
Ammomanes deserti
INC
INC
Anaplectes rubriceps
DEC
DEC
Anas hottentota
DEC
NO CHANGE
Anas sparsa
INC
INC
Andropadus gracilirostris
NO CHANGE
INC
Andropadus virens
INC
NO CHANGE
Anomalospiza imberbis
INC
INC
Anthoscopus parvulus
INC
NO CHANGE
Anthoscopus punctifrons
INC
INC
Anthreptes collaris
INC
INC
Anthreptes gabonicus
NO CHANGE
INC
Anthreptes longuemarei
DEC
NO CHANGE
Anthus similis
INC
INC
Apalis flavida
INC
INC
Aplopelia larvata
NO CHANGE
INC
Apus caffer
NO CHANGE
DEC
Aquila rapax
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Aquila wahlbergi
INC
INC
Ardea melanocephala
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Ardeola ralloides
INC
NO CHANGE
Aviceda cuculoides
INC
INC
Balaeniceps rex
INC
INC
Balearica pavonina
INC
INC
Batis erlangeri
NO CHANGE
INC
Bleda canicapillus
INC
INC
Bradypterus baboecala
INC
INC
Bubalornis albirostris
INC
INC
Bubo africanus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Campethera cailliautii
INC
INC
Caprimulgus inornatus
INC
INC
Caprimulgus natalensis
NO CHANGE
INC
Caprimulgus tristigma
INC
INC
Centropus monachus
NO CHANGE
INC
Cercomela familiaris
INC
INC
Cercotrichas podobe
INC
INC
Charadrius marginatus
INC
INC
Charadrius pecuarius
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Circaetus cinerascens
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Circaetus cinereus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Cisticola aberrans
DEC
NO CHANGE
Cisticola aridulus
INC
INC
Cisticola brachypterus
INC
INC
Cisticola lateralis
INC
INC
Cisticola ruficeps
INC
INC
Cisticola troglodytes
INC
INC
Clamator jacobinus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Columba guinea
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Coracias abyssinicus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Coracias naevia
DEC
DEC
Coracina pectoralis
DEC
DEC
Corvus rhipidurus
INC
INC
Cossypha heuglini
NO CHANGE
INC
Cossypha natalensis
INC
NO CHANGE
Coturnix delegorguei
DEC
DEC
Cypsiurus parvus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Dendropicos elachus
NO CHANGE
INC
Egretta gularis
INC
INC
Emberiza cabanisi
INC
INC
Emberiza flaviventris
INC
INC
Emberiza striolata
INC
INC
Eremomela icteropygialis
INC
INC
Eremopterix nigriceps
INC
INC
Erythropygia galactotes
NO CHANGE
INC
Estrilda astrild
INC
INC
Estrilda melpoda
INC
INC
Euplectes ardens
INC
INC
Euplectes axillaris
NO CHANGE
INC
Euplectes hordeaceus
INC
INC
Euplectes macroura
INC
INC
Eupodotis savilei
INC
INC
Eupodotis senegalensis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Euschistospiza dybowskii
INC
INC
Falco biarmicus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Francolinus albogularis
INC
INC
Francolinus clappertoni
INC
INC
Francolinus coqui
INC
INC
Gypohierax angolensis
INC
INC
Halcyon chelicuti
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Hieraaetus ayresii
INC
NO CHANGE
Hieraaetus spilogaster
NO CHANGE
DEC
Hippolais pallida
INC
INC
Hirundo lucida
INC
INC
Hylia prasina
INC
INC
Hyliota flavigaster
INC
INC
Hypergerus atriceps
INC
INC
Indicator exilis
INC
NO CHANGE
Indicator indicator
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Indicator maculatus
INC
INC
Indicator willcocksi
INC
INC
Lagonosticta rubricata
INC
INC
Lagonosticta rufopicta
INC
INC
Lamprotornis chalybaeus
INC
INC
Laniarius aethiopicus
INC
INC
Laniarius erythrogaster
INC
INC
Lanius collaris
INC
INC
Lonchura bicolor
INC
INC
Lonchura cantans
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Lonchura fringilloides
NO CHANGE
INC
Macheiramphus alcinus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Malaconotus blanchoti
DEC
DEC
Melierax gabar
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Melierax metabates
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Melocichla mentalis
INC
INC
Merops hirundineus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Merops pusillus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Merops variegatus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Mesopicos goertae
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Microparra capensis
INC
INC
Mirafra africana
DEC
NO CHANGE
Mirafra albicauda
NO CHANGE
INC
Mirafra cantillans
INC
INC
Mirafra cordofanica
INC
INC
Motacilla aguimp
INC
INC
Muscicapa caerulescens
INC
NO CHANGE
Myrmecocichla nigra
INC
INC
Necrosyrtes monachus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia coccinigaster
INC
INC
Nectarinia olivacea
NO CHANGE
INC
Nectarinia venusta
INC
INC
Nigrita bicolor
NO CHANGE
INC
Numida meleagris
NO CHANGE
DEC
Oena capensis
INC
INC
Oenanthe heuglini
INC
INC
Onychognathus morio
DEC
NO CHANGE
Oriolus auratus
INC
INC
Otus leucotis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Pachycoccyx audeberti
NO CHANGE
INC
Passer luteus
INC
INC
Pelecanus rufescens
INC
INC
Petronia pyrgita
NO CHANGE
INC
Phoenicopterus roseus
NO CHANGE
INC
Phyllolais pulchella
INC
INC
Platysteira cyanea
INC
INC
Plegadis falcinellus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Ploceus melanocephalus
INC
INC
Ploceus nigerrimus
NO CHANGE
INC
Ploceus nigricollis
INC
INC
Poicephalus robustus
INC
INC
Polemaetus bellicosus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Prionops caniceps
INC
INC
Prodotiscus regulus
INC
INC
Psalidoprocne obscura
INC
INC
Psalidoprocne pristoptera
INC
INC
Pterocles lichtensteinii
NO CHANGE
INC
Pterocles senegallus
NO CHANGE
INC
Ptilopachus petrosus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Pyrrhurus scandens
INC
INC
Pytilia hypogrammica
INC
INC
Pytilia melba
INC
INC
Quelea erythrops
INC
INC
Quelea quelea
INC
INC
Rynchops flavirostris
INC
INC
Sagittarius serpentarius
NO CHANGE
DEC
Schoenicola brevirostris
INC
NO CHANGE
Spermophaga haematina
INC
NO CHANGE
Spiloptila clamans
NO CHANGE
INC
Sporopipes frontalis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Stephanoaetus coronatus
INC
INC
Strix woodfordii
INC
INC
Tauraco leucolophus
INC
INC
Terathopius ecaudatus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Thalassornis leuconotus
INC
INC
Thamnolaea cinnamomeiventris
DEC
DEC
Threskiornis aethiopicus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Tockus fasciatus
INC
INC
Uraeginthus bengalus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Urocolius macrourus
INC
INC
Vanellus crassirostris
NO CHANGE
INC
Vidua camerunensis
INC
INC
Vidua paradisaea
DEC
NO CHANGE
Vidua togoensis
INC
INC
Vidua wilsoni
INC
INC

The full description of the methodology used for this assessment can be downloaded here: Species Distribution Model