Climate change vulnerability assessments

The boundaries and names shown, and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations or IUCN

Name

Nabardo

  • WDPA ID

    36518

  • Country

    NGA

  • IUCN category

    Not Reported

Species vulnerable to climate change

According to Traits-based Vulnerability Assessments (TVAs)

Vulnerable Species Total Species
Amphibian
2
26
Bird
35
385
Mammal
3
95
Total
40
506

7 % of bird, amphibian, and mammal species assessed are considered vulnerable to climate change

Expected species turnover

According to Species Distribution Models (SDMs)

Percentage of species turnover: Median (95% Confidence Interval)

by 2010-2039 by 2040-2069
Bird
  • 12.5%
  • 16.5%
  • 24.0%
  • 17.2%
  • 24.0%
  • 29.2%
Mammal
  • 15.0%
  • 19.2%
  • 24.7%
  • 16.8%
  • 26.1%
  • 32.0%
Amphibian
  • 16.8%
  • 25.8%
  • 43.0%
  • 16.3%
  • 39.4%
  • 52.5%

Vulnerable species

Name Order Exposure

by 2010-2039   by 2040-2069

IUCN Red List category Sensitivity

to climate change

Adaptability

to climate change

Caprimulgus europaeus Caprimulgiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Low reproductive capacity
Falco peregrinus Falconiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Low genetic diversity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Himantopus himantopus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Lybius vieilloti Piciformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Pelecanus onocrotalus Pelecaniformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Tringa totanus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Chelictinia riocourii Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
Ciconia nigra Ciconiiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Rhinopomastus aterrimus Coraciiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Apus apus Apodiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Circus macrourus Falconiformes
NT
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Falco alopex Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
Falco subbuteo Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Anas acuta Anseriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Apus pallidus Apodiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Slow turnover of generations
Bucorvus abyssinicus Coraciiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Ciconia ciconia Ciconiiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Circus pygargus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Hieraaetus pennatus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Lymnocryptes minimus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Extrinsic barriers to dispersal
Tringa erythropus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Extrinsic barriers to dispersal
Circaetus gallicus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Tachymarptis melba Apodiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Upupa epops Coraciiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Circaetus beaudouini Falconiformes
VU
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Circus aeruginosus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Neophron percnopterus Falconiformes
EN
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Lybius leucocephalus Piciformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Aythya nyroca Anseriformes
NT
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Recurvirostra avosetta Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Pernis apivorus Falconiformes
LC
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Telacanthura ussheri Apodiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
Nicator chloris Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Nectarinia verticalis Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Corythaeola cristata Cuculiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity

The full description of the methodology used for this assessment can be downloaded here: Traits-based Vulnerability Assessments

Expected changes in climate suitability

Name By 2010-2039 By 2040-2069
Lybius vieilloti
NO CHANGE
INC
Rhinopomastus aterrimus
NO CHANGE
INC
Torgos tracheliotos
INC
INC
Falco alopex
INC
INC
Ortyxelos meiffrenii
INC
INC
Bucorvus abyssinicus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Accipiter erythropus
INC
INC
Glareola cinerea
INC
INC
Circaetus beaudouini
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Elminia longicauda
INC
INC
Struthio camelus
INC
INC
Ardeotis arabs
INC
INC
Streptopelia roseogrisea
INC
INC
Nectarinia chloropygia
INC
INC
Psalidoprocne nitens
INC
NO CHANGE
Elminia nigromitrata
INC
NO CHANGE
Bubo poensis
INC
INC
Pogoniulus subsulphureus
INC
NO CHANGE
Pteronetta hartlaubii
INC
INC
Campethera nivosa
INC
INC
Cossypha cyanocampter
INC
INC
Prodotiscus insignis
INC
NO CHANGE
Andropadus gracilis
INC
NO CHANGE
Oriolus brachyrhynchus
INC
NO CHANGE
Stiphrornis erythrothorax
INC
INC
Baeopogon indicator
INC
INC
Chlorocichla simplex
INC
INC
Pogoniulus scolopaceus
INC
NO CHANGE
Pogoniulus bilineatus
INC
INC
Sylvietta virens
NO CHANGE
INC
Sarothrura pulchra
INC
INC
Camaroptera chloronota
INC
INC
Columba iriditorques
INC
INC
Pogoniulus atroflavus
INC
INC
Nectarinia superba
INC
INC
Phyllastrephus albigularis
INC
NO CHANGE
Muscicapa cassini
INC
INC
Tauraco macrorhynchus
INC
NO CHANGE
Andropadus ansorgei
INC
NO CHANGE
Anthreptes rectirostris
NO CHANGE
INC
Glareola nuchalis
INC
INC
Illadopsis fulvescens
INC
INC
Muscicapa comitata
INC
INC
Nectarinia seimundi
INC
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia cyanolaema
INC
NO CHANGE
Bleda syndactylus
INC
NO CHANGE
Sheppardia cyornithopsis
INC
NO CHANGE
Bostrychia olivacea
INC
NO CHANGE
Lamprotornis splendidus
INC
INC
Corvus ruficollis
INC
INC
Cursorius cursor
NO CHANGE
INC
Tachymarptis aequatorialis
INC
INC
Apalis rufogularis
INC
NO CHANGE
Scotopelia bouvieri
NO CHANGE
INC
Nectarinia rubescens
INC
INC
Prinia leucopogon
INC
NO CHANGE
Pseudoalcippe abyssinica
NO CHANGE
INC
Tockus nasutus
INC
INC
Francolinus lathami
INC
NO CHANGE
Lybius bidentatus
INC
INC
Lybius dubius
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Tigriornis leucolopha
INC
INC
Accipiter melanoleucus
INC
INC
Accipiter ovampensis
DEC
DEC
Accipiter tachiro
INC
INC
Acrocephalus gracilirostris
INC
INC
Acrocephalus rufescens
INC
INC
Aenigmatolimnas marginalis
INC
INC
Alaemon alaudipes
INC
INC
Alcedo leucogaster
INC
NO CHANGE
Alethe poliocephala
INC
INC
Amadina fasciata
INC
INC
Amandava subflava
DEC
DEC
Ammomanes deserti
INC
INC
Anaplectes rubriceps
NO CHANGE
DEC
Anas capensis
INC
INC
Anas hottentota
INC
INC
Anas sparsa
INC
INC
Anastomus lamelligerus
DEC
DEC
Andropadus gracilirostris
INC
INC
Andropadus virens
INC
INC
Anhinga rufa
DEC
DEC
Anomalospiza imberbis
INC
INC
Anthoscopus punctifrons
INC
INC
Anthreptes collaris
INC
INC
Anthreptes fraseri
NO CHANGE
INC
Anthreptes gabonicus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Anthreptes platurus
INC
INC
Anthus similis
INC
INC
Apalis flavida
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Apalis jacksoni
INC
NO CHANGE
Apalis nigriceps
INC
NO CHANGE
Apaloderma narina
DEC
DEC
Apaloderma vittatum
NO CHANGE
INC
Aplopelia larvata
INC
INC
Apus affinis
INC
INC
Apus horus
INC
NO CHANGE
Aquila africanus
INC
NO CHANGE
Aquila rapax
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Aquila wahlbergi
NO CHANGE
INC
Asio capensis
DEC
DEC
Aviceda cuculoides
NO CHANGE
DEC
Balaeniceps rex
INC
INC
Balearica pavonina
INC
INC
Batis erlangeri
NO CHANGE
INC
Batis senegalensis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Bleda canicapillus
NO CHANGE
INC
Bostrychia hagedash
NO CHANGE
INC
Bradypterus baboecala
INC
INC
Buphagus africanus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Burhinus senegalensis
INC
INC
Butastur rufipennis
INC
INC
Buteo auguralis
NO CHANGE
INC
Bycanistes subcylindricus
NO CHANGE
INC
Calandrella cinerea
DEC
DEC
Camaroptera superciliaris
INC
NO CHANGE
Campephaga quiscalina
INC
NO CHANGE
Campethera abingoni
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Campethera cailliautii
INC
INC
Campethera punctuligera
NO CHANGE
INC
Caprimulgus climacurus
NO CHANGE
INC
Caprimulgus inornatus
INC
INC
Caprimulgus natalensis
NO CHANGE
INC
Caprimulgus nigriscapularis
INC
NO CHANGE
Caprimulgus tristigma
DEC
NO CHANGE
Centropus grillii
DEC
NO CHANGE
Centropus monachus
NO CHANGE
INC
Centropus senegalensis
NO CHANGE
INC
Ceratogymna elata
INC
NO CHANGE
Cercococcyx mechowi
INC
NO CHANGE
Cercotrichas podobe
NO CHANGE
INC
Ceuthmochares aereus
NO CHANGE
INC
Ceyx lecontei
INC
NO CHANGE
Charadrius marginatus
INC
INC
Charadrius pecuarius
DEC
NO CHANGE
Chloropeta natalensis
NO CHANGE
INC
Ciconia abdimii
NO CHANGE
INC
Circaetus cinereus
DEC
NO CHANGE
Cisticola aridulus
INC
INC
Cisticola brachypterus
INC
INC
Cisticola galactotes
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Cisticola lateralis
INC
INC
Cisticola robustus
INC
INC
Cisticola ruficeps
INC
INC
Cisticola troglodytes
INC
INC
Clamator glandarius
INC
INC
Clamator jacobinus
DEC
DEC
Colius striatus
INC
INC
Columba guinea
INC
INC
Coracias abyssinicus
INC
INC
Coracina caesia
INC
INC
Corvinella corvina
NO CHANGE
INC
Corvus rhipidurus
INC
INC
Cossypha heuglini
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Cossypha natalensis
INC
INC
Cossypha niveicapilla
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Cossypha polioptera
INC
INC
Coturnix delegorguei
DEC
NO CHANGE
Crecopsis egregia
DEC
DEC
Crinifer piscator
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Cuculus gularis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Cuculus solitarius
DEC
DEC
Cursorius temminckii
DEC
NO CHANGE
Dendrocopos obsoletus
NO CHANGE
INC
Dendropicos fuscescens
DEC
DEC
Dendropicos gabonensis
NO CHANGE
INC
Dryoscopus gambensis
INC
INC
Egretta ardesiaca
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Egretta gularis
INC
INC
Emberiza cabanisi
INC
INC
Emberiza flaviventris
INC
INC
Emberiza striolata
INC
INC
Empidornis semipartitus
INC
INC
Ephippiorhynchus senegalensis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Eremomela icteropygialis
INC
INC
Eremomela pusilla
INC
INC
Eremopterix leucotis
NO CHANGE
INC
Eremopterix nigriceps
INC
INC
Erythrocercus mccallii
INC
NO CHANGE
Erythropygia galactotes
INC
INC
Erythropygia leucosticta
INC
INC
Estrilda astrild
NO CHANGE
INC
Euplectes ardens
DEC
DEC
Eupodotis melanogaster
NO CHANGE
INC
Eupodotis savilei
NO CHANGE
INC
Eurystomus gularis
INC
NO CHANGE
Euschistospiza dybowskii
INC
INC
Falco ardosiaceus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Falco chicquera
NO CHANGE
INC
Francolinus ahantensis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Francolinus bicalcaratus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Francolinus clappertoni
INC
INC
Francolinus coqui
INC
INC
Francolinus icterorhynchus
INC
INC
Francolinus squamatus
INC
INC
Galerida modesta
NO CHANGE
INC
Gallinula angulata
DEC
DEC
Glaucidium perlatum
NO CHANGE
INC
Glaucidium tephronotum
INC
NO CHANGE
Guttera pucherani
INC
INC
Gypohierax angolensis
INC
INC
Gyps africanus
NO CHANGE
INC
Halcyon leucocephala
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Halcyon senegalensis
NO CHANGE
INC
Heliolais erythropterus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Hieraaetus ayresii
INC
INC
Hippolais pallida
INC
INC
Hirundo abyssinica
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Hirundo lucida
INC
INC
Hirundo nigrita
INC
INC
Hirundo obsoleta
INC
NO CHANGE
Hylia prasina
INC
INC
Hyliota violacea
INC
NO CHANGE
Illadopsis puveli
INC
INC
Indicator exilis
INC
INC
Jynx ruficollis
NO CHANGE
INC
Kaupifalco monogrammicus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Lagonosticta rhodopareia
INC
INC
Lagonosticta rubricata
INC
INC
Lagonosticta senegala
NO CHANGE
INC
Lamprotornis caudatus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Lamprotornis chalcurus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Lamprotornis chalybaeus
INC
INC
Lamprotornis chloropterus
NO CHANGE
INC
Lamprotornis pulcher
INC
INC
Lamprotornis purpureus
NO CHANGE
INC
Laniarius aethiopicus
INC
INC
Laniarius erythrogaster
INC
INC
Laniarius leucorhynchus
INC
NO CHANGE
Lanius collaris
INC
INC
Lanius excubitoroides
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Lanius mackinnoni
INC
NO CHANGE
Leptoptilos crumeniferus
INC
INC
Linurgus olivaceus
INC
NO CHANGE
Lonchura cucullata
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Lonchura fringilloides
NO CHANGE
DEC
Lophaetus occipitalis
NO CHANGE
INC
Macrodipteryx longipennis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Macrosphenus concolor
INC
INC
Malaconotus cruentus
INC
NO CHANGE
Malimbus scutatus
INC
NO CHANGE
Mandingoa nitidula
INC
INC
Megabyas flammulatus
INC
NO CHANGE
Melaenornis edolioides
INC
NO CHANGE
Melichneutes robustus
INC
NO CHANGE
Merops bulocki
NO CHANGE
INC
Merops variegatus
NO CHANGE
INC
Mesopicos goertae
INC
INC
Microparra capensis
INC
INC
Mirafra africana
DEC
DEC
Mirafra cantillans
INC
INC
Motacilla aguimp
INC
INC
Motacilla clara
NO CHANGE
INC
Muscicapa caerulescens
INC
INC
Muscicapa gambagae
INC
INC
Musophaga rossae
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Myrmecocichla albifrons
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Myrmecocichla nigra
NO CHANGE
INC
Nectarinia adelberti
INC
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia coccinigaster
INC
INC
Nectarinia olivacea
INC
INC
Nectarinia preussi
INC
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia pulchella
NO CHANGE
INC
Nectarinia senegalensis
DEC
DEC
Nectarinia venusta
INC
INC
Neocossyphus poensis
INC
NO CHANGE
Neotis denhami
NO CHANGE
INC
Nigrita bicolor
NO CHANGE
INC
Oena capensis
INC
INC
Oenanthe heuglini
INC
INC
Oriolus auratus
DEC
DEC
Oriolus nigripennis
NO CHANGE
INC
Ortygospiza atricollis
DEC
NO CHANGE
Ortygospiza locustella
DEC
DEC
Otus senegalensis
NO CHANGE
INC
Pachycoccyx audeberti
NO CHANGE
DEC
Passer griseus
INC
INC
Passer luteus
INC
INC
Pelecanus rufescens
INC
INC
Petronia dentata
NO CHANGE
INC
Petronia pyrgita
INC
INC
Phalacrocorax africanus
DEC
DEC
Phoeniconaias minor
INC
NO CHANGE
Phoenicopterus roseus
INC
INC
Phoeniculus purpureus
NO CHANGE
INC
Phyllanthus atripennis
INC
NO CHANGE
Phyllolais pulchella
INC
INC
Pinarocorys erythropygia
NO CHANGE
INC
Platalea alba
INC
INC
Platysteira blissetti
INC
NO CHANGE
Plegadis falcinellus
INC
INC
Plocepasser superciliosus
NO CHANGE
INC
Ploceus melanocephalus
INC
INC
Ploceus nigerrimus
INC
INC
Ploceus ocularis
NO CHANGE
INC
Ploceus superciliosus
INC
INC
Pluvianus aegyptius
INC
INC
Pogoniulus chrysoconus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Pogoniulus coryphaeus
INC
NO CHANGE
Poicephalus robustus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Poicephalus senegalus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Polyboroides typus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Prionops caniceps
INC
NO CHANGE
Prodotiscus regulus
INC
INC
Psalidoprocne pristoptera
INC
INC
Pseudhirundo griseopyga
DEC
DEC
Pterocles lichtensteinii
INC
NO CHANGE
Pterocles quadricinctus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Pterocles senegallus
INC
NO CHANGE
Ptilopachus petrosus
NO CHANGE
INC
Ptilostomus afer
NO CHANGE
INC
Pyrrhurus scandens
INC
INC
Pytilia hypogrammica
INC
INC
Pytilia melba
INC
INC
Quelea erythrops
INC
INC
Quelea quelea
INC
INC
Rallus caerulescens
INC
INC
Rhinoptilus chalcopterus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Rynchops flavirostris
DEC
NO CHANGE
Sagittarius serpentarius
DEC
DEC
Sarothrura elegans
NO CHANGE
INC
Schoenicola brevirostris
INC
INC
Scotopelia peli
DEC
DEC
Serinus burtoni
INC
NO CHANGE
Sheppardia bocagei
INC
INC
Spermophaga haematina
INC
NO CHANGE
Stephanoaetus coronatus
INC
INC
Stigmatopelia senegalensis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Streptopelia semitorquata
DEC
DEC
Streptopelia vinacea
INC
INC
Strix woodfordii
INC
INC
Sylvietta brachyura
INC
INC
Tauraco leucolophus
INC
INC
Tchagra australis
NO CHANGE
INC
Tchagra minutus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Telophorus multicolor
INC
NO CHANGE
Terpsiphone viridis
DEC
DEC
Thalassornis leuconotus
INC
INC
Tockus fasciatus
INC
INC
Tockus hartlaubi
INC
INC
Trachyphonus purpuratus
NO CHANGE
INC
Treron calvus
DEC
DEC
Treron waalia
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Turdoides plebejus
NO CHANGE
INC
Turdus pelios
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Turnix hottentottus
INC
NO CHANGE
Turtur abyssinicus
NO CHANGE
INC
Turtur afer
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Turtur tympanistria
INC
INC
Uraeginthus bengalus
INC
INC
Urocolius macrourus
INC
INC
Vanellus albiceps
NO CHANGE
INC
Vanellus crassirostris
INC
INC
Vanellus lugubris
INC
INC
Vanellus spinosus
NO CHANGE
INC
Vidua chalybeata
NO CHANGE
INC
Vidua raricola
INC
NO CHANGE
Vidua togoensis
INC
INC

The full description of the methodology used for this assessment can be downloaded here: Species Distribution Model