Climate change vulnerability assessments

The boundaries and names shown, and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations or IUCN

Name

Jere

  • WDPA ID

    36542

  • Country

    NGA

  • IUCN category

    Not Reported

Species vulnerable to climate change

According to Traits-based Vulnerability Assessments (TVAs)

Vulnerable Species Total Species
Amphibian
3
27
Bird
39
390
Mammal
3
97
Total
45
514

8 % of bird, amphibian, and mammal species assessed are considered vulnerable to climate change

Expected species turnover

According to Species Distribution Models (SDMs)

Percentage of species turnover: Median (95% Confidence Interval)

by 2010-2039 by 2040-2069
Bird
  • 12.3%
  • 16.1%
  • 24.3%
  • 13.9%
  • 22.9%
  • 29.2%
Mammal
  • 15.1%
  • 19.4%
  • 24.9%
  • 15.1%
  • 26.9%
  • 33.3%
Amphibian
  • 16.9%
  • 27.8%
  • 41.9%
  • 14.0%
  • 41.2%
  • 53.2%

Vulnerable species

Name Order Exposure

by 2010-2039   by 2040-2069

IUCN Red List category Sensitivity

to climate change

Adaptability

to climate change

Caprimulgus europaeus Caprimulgiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Low reproductive capacity
Falco peregrinus Falconiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Low genetic diversity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Himantopus himantopus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Lybius vieilloti Piciformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Pelecanus onocrotalus Pelecaniformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Tringa totanus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Chelictinia riocourii Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
Ciconia nigra Ciconiiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Rhinopomastus aterrimus Coraciiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Apus apus Apodiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Circus macrourus Falconiformes
NT
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Falco alopex Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
Falco subbuteo Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Anas acuta Anseriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Apus pallidus Apodiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Slow turnover of generations
Bucorvus abyssinicus Coraciiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Ciconia ciconia Ciconiiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Circus pygargus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Glareola cinerea Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Hieraaetus pennatus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Lymnocryptes minimus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Extrinsic barriers to dispersal
Tringa erythropus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Extrinsic barriers to dispersal
Circaetus gallicus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Tachymarptis melba Apodiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Upupa epops Coraciiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Circaetus beaudouini Falconiformes
VU
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Circus aeruginosus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Neophron percnopterus Falconiformes
EN
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Lybius leucocephalus Piciformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Aythya nyroca Anseriformes
NT
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Streptopelia turtur Columbiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Low reproductive capacity
Recurvirostra avosetta Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Pernis apivorus Falconiformes
LC
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Telacanthura ussheri Apodiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
Tauraco persa Cuculiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Sarothrura pulchra Gruiformes
LC
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Nectarinia verticalis Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Fraseria cinerascens Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Corythaeola cristata Cuculiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity

The full description of the methodology used for this assessment can be downloaded here: Traits-based Vulnerability Assessments

Expected changes in climate suitability

Name By 2010-2039 By 2040-2069
Lybius vieilloti
NO CHANGE
INC
Rhinopomastus aterrimus
NO CHANGE
INC
Torgos tracheliotos
INC
INC
Falco alopex
NO CHANGE
INC
Ortyxelos meiffrenii
INC
INC
Bucorvus abyssinicus
NO CHANGE
INC
Accipiter erythropus
INC
INC
Elminia longicauda
INC
INC
Struthio camelus
INC
INC
Streptopelia roseogrisea
INC
INC
Nectarinia chloropygia
INC
INC
Psalidoprocne nitens
INC
INC
Elminia nigromitrata
NO CHANGE
INC
Merops malimbicus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Bubo poensis
INC
INC
Pogoniulus subsulphureus
INC
INC
Pteronetta hartlaubii
INC
INC
Tricholaema hirsuta
NO CHANGE
INC
Campethera nivosa
NO CHANGE
INC
Cossypha cyanocampter
INC
INC
Prodotiscus insignis
INC
INC
Trochocercus nitens
NO CHANGE
INC
Andropadus gracilis
INC
INC
Bostrychia rara
INC
NO CHANGE
Oriolus brachyrhynchus
NO CHANGE
INC
Stiphrornis erythrothorax
INC
INC
Andropadus latirostris
INC
NO CHANGE
Baeopogon indicator
INC
INC
Chlorocichla simplex
INC
INC
Pogoniulus scolopaceus
INC
INC
Turtur brehmeri
NO CHANGE
INC
Gymnobucco calvus
NO CHANGE
INC
Pogoniulus bilineatus
INC
INC
Sylvietta virens
NO CHANGE
INC
Smithornis rufolateralis
NO CHANGE
INC
Camaroptera chloronota
INC
INC
Columba iriditorques
INC
INC
Criniger calurus
NO CHANGE
INC
Pogoniulus atroflavus
INC
INC
Merops gularis
NO CHANGE
INC
Nectarinia superba
INC
INC
Muscicapa epulata
INC
INC
Bubo leucostictus
INC
INC
Phyllastrephus albigularis
INC
NO CHANGE
Muscicapa cassini
INC
INC
Myioparus griseigularis
INC
INC
Pholidornis rushiae
INC
INC
Andropadus ansorgei
INC
NO CHANGE
Anthreptes rectirostris
NO CHANGE
INC
Glareola nuchalis
INC
INC
Illadopsis fulvescens
INC
INC
Muscicapa comitata
INC
INC
Nectarinia johannae
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Sylvietta denti
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia seimundi
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Thescelocichla leucopleura
INC
INC
Columba unicincta
INC
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia cyanolaema
NO CHANGE
INC
Bleda syndactylus
INC
INC
Buccanodon duchaillui
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Ixonotus guttatus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Stizorhina fraseri
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Sheppardia cyornithopsis
INC
INC
Bostrychia olivacea
INC
NO CHANGE
Lamprotornis splendidus
INC
INC
Corvus ruficollis
INC
NO CHANGE
Tachymarptis aequatorialis
INC
INC
Apalis rufogularis
INC
NO CHANGE
Scotopelia bouvieri
INC
INC
Nectarinia bouvieri
INC
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia rubescens
INC
INC
Prinia leucopogon
NO CHANGE
INC
Tockus nasutus
NO CHANGE
INC
Francolinus lathami
INC
INC
Lybius bidentatus
INC
INC
Tigriornis leucolopha
INC
INC
Accipiter melanoleucus
INC
INC
Accipiter ovampensis
DEC
DEC
Accipiter tachiro
INC
INC
Acrocephalus gracilirostris
INC
INC
Acrocephalus rufescens
INC
INC
Aenigmatolimnas marginalis
INC
INC
Alcedo leucogaster
NO CHANGE
INC
Alethe diademata
NO CHANGE
INC
Alethe poliocephala
INC
INC
Amadina fasciata
INC
INC
Amandava subflava
DEC
DEC
Anaplectes rubriceps
DEC
DEC
Anas capensis
INC
INC
Anas hottentota
INC
INC
Anas sparsa
INC
INC
Anastomus lamelligerus
DEC
DEC
Andropadus curvirostris
INC
INC
Andropadus gracilirostris
INC
INC
Andropadus virens
INC
INC
Anhinga rufa
DEC
DEC
Anomalospiza imberbis
DEC
DEC
Anthreptes collaris
INC
INC
Anthreptes fraseri
NO CHANGE
INC
Anthreptes gabonicus
NO CHANGE
INC
Anthreptes platurus
INC
INC
Anthus similis
INC
INC
Apalis jacksoni
INC
NO CHANGE
Apalis nigriceps
INC
INC
Apalis sharpii
INC
INC
Apaloderma narina
DEC
DEC
Aplopelia larvata
INC
INC
Apus horus
INC
INC
Aquila africanus
INC
INC
Aquila wahlbergi
NO CHANGE
INC
Asio capensis
DEC
DEC
Balaeniceps rex
INC
INC
Balearica pavonina
INC
INC
Batis erlangeri
NO CHANGE
INC
Bleda canicapillus
INC
INC
Bostrychia hagedash
INC
INC
Bradypterus baboecala
INC
INC
Burhinus senegalensis
INC
INC
Butastur rufipennis
INC
INC
Buteo auguralis
NO CHANGE
INC
Bycanistes subcylindricus
INC
INC
Calandrella cinerea
DEC
DEC
Camaroptera superciliaris
NO CHANGE
INC
Campephaga phoenicea
NO CHANGE
INC
Campephaga quiscalina
INC
INC
Campethera abingoni
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Campethera cailliautii
INC
INC
Campethera caroli
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Campethera punctuligera
NO CHANGE
INC
Caprimulgus climacurus
NO CHANGE
INC
Caprimulgus inornatus
INC
INC
Caprimulgus natalensis
INC
INC
Caprimulgus nigriscapularis
INC
INC
Caprimulgus tristigma
DEC
NO CHANGE
Centropus grillii
NO CHANGE
DEC
Centropus monachus
NO CHANGE
INC
Centropus senegalensis
NO CHANGE
INC
Ceratogymna elata
INC
INC
Cercococcyx mechowi
INC
INC
Ceuthmochares aereus
NO CHANGE
INC
Ceyx lecontei
INC
INC
Charadrius marginatus
INC
INC
Charadrius pecuarius
DEC
DEC
Chloropeta natalensis
NO CHANGE
INC
Ciconia abdimii
NO CHANGE
INC
Circaetus cinereus
DEC
NO CHANGE
Cisticola aridulus
INC
INC
Cisticola lateralis
INC
INC
Cisticola natalensis
DEC
NO CHANGE
Cisticola robustus
INC
INC
Cisticola ruficeps
INC
INC
Cisticola rufus
INC
INC
Cisticola troglodytes
INC
INC
Clamator glandarius
NO CHANGE
INC
Clamator jacobinus
DEC
DEC
Clytospiza monteiri
NO CHANGE
INC
Colius striatus
INC
INC
Columba guinea
NO CHANGE
INC
Coracias abyssinicus
NO CHANGE
INC
Coracina azurea
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Coracina caesia
INC
NO CHANGE
Corvinella corvina
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Corvus rhipidurus
INC
INC
Cossypha heuglini
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Cossypha natalensis
INC
INC
Cossypha niveicapilla
NO CHANGE
INC
Cossypha polioptera
INC
INC
Coturnix delegorguei
DEC
DEC
Crecopsis egregia
NO CHANGE
DEC
Crinifer piscator
NO CHANGE
INC
Cuculus gularis
NO CHANGE
INC
Cuculus solitarius
DEC
DEC
Cursorius temminckii
DEC
DEC
Dendrocopos obsoletus
NO CHANGE
INC
Dendropicos fuscescens
DEC
DEC
Dendropicos gabonensis
NO CHANGE
INC
Dryoscopus gambensis
NO CHANGE
INC
Egretta ardesiaca
NO CHANGE
DEC
Egretta gularis
INC
INC
Emberiza cabanisi
INC
INC
Emberiza flaviventris
INC
INC
Empidornis semipartitus
NO CHANGE
INC
Ephippiorhynchus senegalensis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Eremomela badiceps
INC
INC
Eremomela icteropygialis
INC
INC
Eremomela pusilla
NO CHANGE
INC
Erythrocercus mccallii
NO CHANGE
INC
Erythropygia galactotes
INC
INC
Erythropygia leucosticta
INC
INC
Estrilda astrild
NO CHANGE
INC
Euplectes ardens
DEC
DEC
Eupodotis melanogaster
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Eurystomus glaucurus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Eurystomus gularis
INC
INC
Euschistospiza dybowskii
INC
INC
Falco ardosiaceus
NO CHANGE
INC
Francolinus ahantensis
INC
INC
Francolinus clappertoni
INC
INC
Francolinus coqui
INC
INC
Francolinus icterorhynchus
INC
INC
Francolinus squamatus
INC
INC
Fraseria ocreata
INC
INC
Galerida modesta
NO CHANGE
INC
Gallinula angulata
DEC
DEC
Glaucidium tephronotum
INC
NO CHANGE
Guttera pucherani
INC
INC
Gypohierax angolensis
INC
INC
Halcyon leucocephala
NO CHANGE
INC
Halcyon senegalensis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Hieraaetus ayresii
INC
INC
Hippolais pallida
INC
INC
Hirundo abyssinica
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Hirundo lucida
INC
INC
Hirundo nigrita
INC
INC
Hirundo semirufa
DEC
NO CHANGE
Hylia prasina
INC
INC
Hyliota violacea
INC
INC
Illadopsis puveli
INC
INC
Indicator exilis
INC
INC
Jynx ruficollis
NO CHANGE
INC
Kaupifalco monogrammicus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Lagonosticta rhodopareia
INC
INC
Lagonosticta rufopicta
INC
INC
Lagonosticta senegala
NO CHANGE
INC
Lamprotornis chalcurus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Lamprotornis chalybaeus
INC
INC
Lamprotornis chloropterus
NO CHANGE
INC
Lamprotornis purpureus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Laniarius aethiopicus
INC
INC
Laniarius erythrogaster
INC
INC
Laniarius leucorhynchus
INC
INC
Lanius collaris
INC
INC
Lanius excubitoroides
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Lanius mackinnoni
INC
NO CHANGE
Leptoptilos crumeniferus
INC
INC
Lonchura bicolor
INC
INC
Lonchura fringilloides
INC
INC
Lophaetus occipitalis
NO CHANGE
INC
Macrodipteryx longipennis
NO CHANGE
INC
Macrosphenus concolor
INC
INC
Malaconotus cruentus
INC
INC
Malimbus nitens
INC
INC
Malimbus scutatus
INC
INC
Mandingoa nitidula
INC
INC
Megabyas flammulatus
INC
INC
Melaenornis edolioides
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Melichneutes robustus
INC
INC
Melierax gabar
DEC
DEC
Merops bulocki
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Merops mentalis
NO CHANGE
INC
Merops variegatus
NO CHANGE
INC
Mesopicos goertae
NO CHANGE
INC
Microparra capensis
INC
INC
Mirafra africana
NO CHANGE
DEC
Mirafra albicauda
INC
NO CHANGE
Mirafra cantillans
INC
INC
Mirafra rufocinnamomea
DEC
DEC
Motacilla aguimp
INC
INC
Motacilla clara
NO CHANGE
INC
Muscicapa adusta
NO CHANGE
INC
Muscicapa caerulescens
INC
INC
Muscicapa gambagae
INC
INC
Muscicapa infuscata
INC
NO CHANGE
Musophaga rossae
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Myrmecocichla nigra
NO CHANGE
INC
Nectarinia adelberti
INC
INC
Nectarinia coccinigaster
INC
INC
Nectarinia olivacea
INC
INC
Nectarinia preussi
INC
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia pulchella
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia senegalensis
DEC
DEC
Nectarinia venusta
INC
INC
Neocossyphus poensis
INC
INC
Neotis denhami
NO CHANGE
INC
Nigrita bicolor
NO CHANGE
INC
Nigrita fusconotus
NO CHANGE
INC
Oena capensis
INC
INC
Oenanthe heuglini
INC
INC
Onychognathus fulgidus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Onychognathus morio
DEC
NO CHANGE
Oriolus nigripennis
NO CHANGE
INC
Ortygospiza atricollis
DEC
NO CHANGE
Ortygospiza locustella
INC
NO CHANGE
Otus senegalensis
NO CHANGE
INC
Pachycoccyx audeberti
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Passer griseus
INC
INC
Pelecanus rufescens
INC
INC
Petronia dentata
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Petronia pyrgita
INC
NO CHANGE
Phalacrocorax africanus
DEC
DEC
Phoeniconaias minor
INC
NO CHANGE
Phoenicopterus roseus
INC
INC
Phoeniculus purpureus
NO CHANGE
INC
Phyllanthus atripennis
INC
INC
Phyllolais pulchella
INC
INC
Pinarocorys erythropygia
NO CHANGE
INC
Platalea alba
INC
INC
Platysteira blissetti
INC
INC
Plegadis falcinellus
INC
INC
Ploceus melanocephalus
INC
INC
Ploceus nigerrimus
INC
INC
Ploceus superciliosus
INC
INC
Pluvianus aegyptius
NO CHANGE
INC
Podica senegalensis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Poeoptera lugubris
NO CHANGE
INC
Pogoniulus chrysoconus
NO CHANGE
INC
Prionops caniceps
INC
INC
Prodotiscus regulus
INC
INC
Psalidoprocne pristoptera
INC
INC
Pseudhirundo griseopyga
DEC
DEC
Pterocles lichtensteinii
INC
INC
Ptilopachus petrosus
NO CHANGE
INC
Ptilostomus afer
NO CHANGE
INC
Pyrrhurus scandens
INC
INC
Pytilia hypogrammica
INC
INC
Pytilia melba
INC
INC
Quelea erythrops
INC
INC
Quelea quelea
INC
INC
Rallus caerulescens
INC
INC
Rhaphidura sabini
NO CHANGE
INC
Rynchops flavirostris
NO CHANGE
DEC
Sagittarius serpentarius
DEC
DEC
Sarothrura elegans
NO CHANGE
INC
Schoenicola brevirostris
INC
INC
Serinus burtoni
INC
NO CHANGE
Sheppardia bocagei
INC
NO CHANGE
Spermophaga haematina
INC
INC
Stephanoaetus coronatus
INC
INC
Streptopelia vinacea
NO CHANGE
INC
Strix woodfordii
INC
INC
Sylvietta brachyura
INC
INC
Tauraco leucolophus
INC
INC
Tchagra australis
NO CHANGE
INC
Tchagra minutus
DEC
DEC
Telophorus multicolor
INC
INC
Terpsiphone viridis
DEC
NO CHANGE
Thalassornis leuconotus
INC
INC
Thamnolaea cinnamomeiventris
DEC
DEC
Threskiornis aethiopicus
DEC
DEC
Thripias pyrrhogaster
NO CHANGE
INC
Tockus fasciatus
INC
INC
Tockus hartlaubi
INC
INC
Trachyphonus purpuratus
NO CHANGE
INC
Treron calvus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Turdoides plebejus
NO CHANGE
INC
Turdus pelios
INC
INC
Turnix hottentottus
INC
INC
Turtur abyssinicus
INC
INC
Turtur afer
NO CHANGE
INC
Turtur tympanistria
INC
INC
Uraeginthus bengalus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Urocolius macrourus
INC
INC
Vanellus albiceps
NO CHANGE
INC
Vanellus crassirostris
INC
INC
Vanellus lugubris
INC
INC
Vanellus spinosus
NO CHANGE
INC
Vanellus tectus
INC
INC
Vidua paradisaea
INC
INC
Vidua raricola
INC
INC
Vidua togoensis
INC
INC
Zosterops senegalensis
NO CHANGE
INC

The full description of the methodology used for this assessment can be downloaded here: Species Distribution Model