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Climate change vulnerability assessments

The boundaries and names shown, and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations or IUCN

Name

Afaka

  • WDPA ID

    36562

  • Country

    NGA

  • IUCN category

    Not Reported

Species vulnerable to climate change

According to Traits-based Vulnerability Assessments (TVAs)

Vulnerable Species Total Species
Amphibian
3
27
Bird
37
379
Mammal
3
93
Total
43
499

8 % of bird, amphibian, and mammal species assessed are considered vulnerable to climate change

Expected species turnover

According to Species Distribution Models (SDMs)

Percentage of species turnover: Median (95% Confidence Interval)

by 2010-2039 by 2040-2069
Bird
  • 8.1%
  • 11.2%
  • 13.7%
  • 11.7%
  • 15.8%
  • 29.8%
Mammal
  • 8.7%
  • 12.1%
  • 15.8%
  • 11.8%
  • 15.3%
  • 21.3%
Amphibian
  • 6.3%
  • 11.1%
  • 17.2%
  • 10.2%
  • 20.2%
  • 42.2%

Vulnerable species

Name Order Exposure

by 2010-2039   by 2040-2069

 IUCN Red List category Sensitivity

to climate change

 Adaptability

to climate change
Caprimulgus europaeus Caprimulgiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Low reproductive capacity
Falco peregrinus Falconiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Low genetic diversity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Himantopus himantopus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Lybius vieilloti Piciformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Pelecanus onocrotalus Pelecaniformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Tringa totanus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Chelictinia riocourii Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
Ciconia nigra Ciconiiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Rhinopomastus aterrimus Coraciiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Apus apus Apodiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Circus macrourus Falconiformes
NT
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Falco alopex Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
Falco subbuteo Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Anas acuta Anseriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Apus pallidus Apodiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Slow turnover of generations
Bucorvus abyssinicus Coraciiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Ciconia ciconia Ciconiiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Circus pygargus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Glareola cinerea Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Hieraaetus pennatus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Lymnocryptes minimus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Extrinsic barriers to dispersal
Tringa erythropus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Extrinsic barriers to dispersal
Circaetus gallicus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Tachymarptis melba Apodiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Upupa epops Coraciiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Circaetus beaudouini Falconiformes
VU
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Circus aeruginosus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Neophron percnopterus Falconiformes
EN
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Lybius leucocephalus Piciformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Aythya nyroca Anseriformes
NT
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Streptopelia turtur Columbiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Low reproductive capacity
Recurvirostra avosetta Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Pernis apivorus Falconiformes
LC
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Telacanthura ussheri Apodiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
Sarothrura pulchra Gruiformes
LC
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Fraseria cinerascens Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Glareola nuchalis Charadriiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity

The full description of the methodology used for this assessment can be downloaded here: Traits-based Vulnerability Assessments

Expected changes in climate suitability

Name By 2010-2039 By 2040-2069
Rhinopomastus aterrimus
INC
NO CHANGE
Torgos tracheliotos
INC
INC
Falco alopex
INC
INC
Ortyxelos meiffrenii
INC
INC
Struthio camelus
INC
INC
Ardeotis arabs
INC
INC
Streptopelia roseogrisea
INC
INC
Nectarinia chloropygia
INC
INC
Psalidoprocne nitens
INC
NO CHANGE
Telacanthura ussheri
NO CHANGE
DEC
Tauraco persa
INC
INC
Elminia nigromitrata
INC
NO CHANGE
Merops malimbicus
INC
NO CHANGE
Bubo poensis
INC
INC
Pogoniulus subsulphureus
INC
INC
Pteronetta hartlaubii
INC
NO CHANGE
Campethera nivosa
INC
INC
Cossypha cyanocampter
INC
INC
Nicator chloris
INC
INC
Prodotiscus insignis
INC
NO CHANGE
Andropadus gracilis
INC
INC
Oriolus brachyrhynchus
NO CHANGE
INC
Stiphrornis erythrothorax
INC
NO CHANGE
Andropadus latirostris
INC
INC
Baeopogon indicator
INC
INC
Chlorocichla simplex
INC
INC
Pogoniulus scolopaceus
INC
INC
Turtur brehmeri
INC
INC
Pogoniulus bilineatus
INC
NO CHANGE
Sylvietta virens
NO CHANGE
INC
Camaroptera chloronota
INC
INC
Columba iriditorques
INC
INC
Criniger calurus
INC
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia verticalis
INC
INC
Pogoniulus atroflavus
INC
INC
Nectarinia superba
INC
INC
Muscicapa epulata
INC
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia minulla
INC
NO CHANGE
Bubo leucostictus
INC
NO CHANGE
Phyllastrephus albigularis
INC
INC
Muscicapa cassini
INC
INC
Pholidornis rushiae
INC
NO CHANGE
Anthreptes rectirostris
NO CHANGE
INC
Glareola nuchalis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Illadopsis fulvescens
INC
INC
Muscicapa comitata
INC
INC
Nectarinia johannae
INC
INC
Sylvietta denti
NO CHANGE
INC
Nectarinia seimundi
INC
INC
Thescelocichla leucopleura
INC
INC
Columba unicincta
INC
NO CHANGE
Corythaeola cristata
INC
INC
Nectarinia cyanolaema
INC
NO CHANGE
Ixonotus guttatus
INC
INC
Sheppardia cyornithopsis
INC
NO CHANGE
Bostrychia olivacea
INC
NO CHANGE
Lamprotornis splendidus
INC
INC
Corvus ruficollis
INC
INC
Tachymarptis aequatorialis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Bycanistes albotibialis
INC
INC
Apalis rufogularis
INC
INC
Scotopelia bouvieri
INC
INC
Dryoscopus senegalensis
INC
INC
Nectarinia rubescens
INC
INC
Prinia leucopogon
NO CHANGE
INC
Francolinus lathami
INC
NO CHANGE
Uromanis tetradactyla
INC
INC
Lybius bidentatus
INC
INC
Tigriornis leucolopha
INC
INC
Tockus erythrorhynchus
NO CHANGE
INC
Accipiter melanoleucus
INC
INC
Accipiter ovampensis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Accipiter tachiro
INC
INC
Acrocephalus gracilirostris
INC
INC
Acrocephalus rufescens
INC
INC
Aenigmatolimnas marginalis
INC
INC
Alcedo leucogaster
INC
INC
Alcedo quadribrachys
INC
NO CHANGE
Alethe diademata
INC
INC
Alethe poliocephala
INC
INC
Ammomanes deserti
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Anas capensis
INC
INC
Anas hottentota
DEC
DEC
Anas sparsa
INC
INC
Anastomus lamelligerus
INC
INC
Andropadus curvirostris
INC
NO CHANGE
Andropadus gracilirostris
INC
INC
Andropadus virens
INC
INC
Anthoscopus punctifrons
INC
INC
Anthreptes collaris
DEC
DEC
Anthreptes fraseri
INC
INC
Anthreptes gabonicus
INC
INC
Anthreptes longuemarei
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Anthus leucophrys
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Anthus similis
INC
INC
Apalis flavida
NO CHANGE
DEC
Apalis nigriceps
INC
NO CHANGE
Apalis sharpii
INC
INC
Apaloderma narina
DEC
DEC
Aplopelia larvata
INC
INC
Apus horus
INC
NO CHANGE
Aquila africanus
INC
NO CHANGE
Aquila wahlbergi
INC
INC
Asio capensis
INC
INC
Aviceda cuculoides
NO CHANGE
DEC
Balaeniceps rex
INC
INC
Balearica pavonina
INC
INC
Batis erlangeri
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Bleda canicapillus
INC
INC
Bradornis pallidus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Bradypterus baboecala
INC
INC
Burhinus senegalensis
INC
NO CHANGE
Bycanistes subcylindricus
INC
INC
Calyptocichla serina
INC
NO CHANGE
Campethera abingoni
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Campethera cailliautii
INC
INC
Caprimulgus climacurus
INC
NO CHANGE
Caprimulgus inornatus
INC
INC
Caprimulgus natalensis
INC
INC
Caprimulgus nigriscapularis
INC
INC
Caprimulgus tristigma
NO CHANGE
DEC
Centropus monachus
INC
INC
Centropus senegalensis
INC
NO CHANGE
Cercococcyx mechowi
INC
NO CHANGE
Cercomela familiaris
NO CHANGE
DEC
Ceuthmochares aereus
NO CHANGE
INC
Ceyx lecontei
INC
NO CHANGE
Charadrius marginatus
INC
INC
Chloropeta natalensis
NO CHANGE
INC
Chrysococcyx cupreus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Circaetus cinerascens
NO CHANGE
DEC
Cisticola aberrans
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Cisticola aridulus
INC
INC
Cisticola brachypterus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Cisticola cantans
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Cisticola erythrops
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Cisticola guinea
INC
INC
Cisticola lateralis
INC
INC
Cisticola natalensis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Cisticola robustus
INC
INC
Cisticola ruficeps
INC
INC
Cisticola rufus
INC
INC
Cisticola troglodytes
INC
INC
Clamator glandarius
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Colius striatus
INC
INC
Coracias naevia
NO CHANGE
DEC
Coracina azurea
INC
NO CHANGE
Coracina caesia
INC
NO CHANGE
Coracina pectoralis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Corvus rhipidurus
INC
INC
Cossypha natalensis
INC
INC
Cossypha polioptera
INC
INC
Crecopsis egregia
DEC
DEC
Cuculus solitarius
NO CHANGE
DEC
Cursorius temminckii
NO CHANGE
DEC
Dendrocopos obsoletus
INC
NO CHANGE
Dendropicos fuscescens
NO CHANGE
DEC
Dicrurus ludwigii
NO CHANGE
DEC
Drymocichla incana
NO CHANGE
INC
Egretta gularis
INC
INC
Emberiza cabanisi
INC
INC
Emberiza flaviventris
INC
INC
Emberiza striolata
INC
NO CHANGE
Empidornis semipartitus
NO CHANGE
INC
Eremomela badiceps
INC
NO CHANGE
Eremomela icteropygialis
INC
INC
Eremomela pusilla
INC
NO CHANGE
Eremopterix nigriceps
INC
INC
Erythrocercus mccallii
INC
INC
Erythropygia galactotes
INC
INC
Erythropygia leucosticta
INC
INC
Estrilda astrild
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Euplectes ardens
INC
INC
Eupodotis senegalensis
INC
INC
Eurystomus gularis
INC
INC
Euschistospiza dybowskii
INC
INC
Falco cuvierii
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Francolinus ahantensis
INC
INC
Francolinus clappertoni
INC
INC
Francolinus coqui
INC
INC
Francolinus icterorhynchus
INC
INC
Francolinus squamatus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Fraseria ocreata
INC
NO CHANGE
Glaucidium tephronotum
INC
NO CHANGE
Guttera pucherani
INC
INC
Halcyon chelicuti
NO CHANGE
DEC
Heliolais erythropterus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Hieraaetus ayresii
INC
INC
Himantornis haematopus
INC
NO CHANGE
Hirundo abyssinica
DEC
DEC
Hirundo aethiopica
NO CHANGE
INC
Hirundo fuligula
DEC
DEC
Hirundo lucida
INC
INC
Hirundo nigrita
INC
INC
Hirundo senegalensis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Hylia prasina
INC
INC
Hyliota violacea
INC
INC
Illadopsis puveli
INC
INC
Indicator exilis
INC
INC
Indicator indicator
NO CHANGE
DEC
Indicator minor
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Lagonosticta rara
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Lagonosticta rhodopareia
INC
INC
Lagonosticta rubricata
INC
NO CHANGE
Lamprotornis chalybaeus
INC
INC
Lamprotornis pulcher
INC
INC
Laniarius aethiopicus
INC
INC
Laniarius erythrogaster
INC
INC
Laniarius leucorhynchus
INC
NO CHANGE
Lanius collaris
INC
INC
Lanius gubernator
INC
INC
Leptoptilos crumeniferus
NO CHANGE
INC
Lonchura bicolor
INC
INC
Lonchura cucullata
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Lonchura fringilloides
INC
INC
Macheiramphus alcinus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Macrosphenus concolor
INC
NO CHANGE
Malaconotus blanchoti
NO CHANGE
DEC
Malaconotus cruentus
INC
NO CHANGE
Malimbus nitens
INC
INC
Malimbus rubricollis
NO CHANGE
INC
Malimbus scutatus
INC
NO CHANGE
Mandingoa nitidula
INC
INC
Megabyas flammulatus
INC
INC
Melaenornis edolioides
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Melichneutes robustus
INC
NO CHANGE
Merops hirundineus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Merops nubicus
NO CHANGE
INC
Merops pusillus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Merops variegatus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Mesopicos goertae
INC
NO CHANGE
Microparra capensis
INC
INC
Mirafra africana
DEC
DEC
Mirafra albicauda
INC
NO CHANGE
Mirafra cantillans
INC
INC
Mirafra cordofanica
INC
NO CHANGE
Motacilla aguimp
INC
INC
Motacilla clara
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Muscicapa caerulescens
INC
INC
Muscicapa gambagae
INC
INC
Myrmecocichla nigra
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia adelberti
INC
INC
Nectarinia coccinigaster
INC
INC
Nectarinia olivacea
INC
INC
Nectarinia pulchella
INC
INC
Nectarinia venusta
INC
INC
Neocossyphus poensis
INC
NO CHANGE
Nesocharis capistrata
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Nigrita bicolor
NO CHANGE
INC
Nigrita fusconotus
NO CHANGE
INC
Numida meleagris
NO CHANGE
DEC
Oena capensis
INC
INC
Oenanthe heuglini
INC
INC
Oriolus auratus
INC
INC
Otus leucotis
DEC
DEC
Otus senegalensis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Pachycoccyx audeberti
INC
INC
Passer griseus
INC
NO CHANGE
Pelecanus rufescens
INC
INC
Petronia dentata
INC
INC
Petronia pyrgita
NO CHANGE
INC
Phoenicopterus roseus
INC
INC
Phyllanthus atripennis
INC
INC
Phyllolais pulchella
INC
INC
Platysteira blissetti
INC
NO CHANGE
Plectropterus gambensis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Ploceus melanocephalus
INC
INC
Ploceus nigerrimus
INC
INC
Pluvianus aegyptius
INC
NO CHANGE
Poicephalus robustus
DEC
DEC
Polemaetus bellicosus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Prinia subflava
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Prionops caniceps
INC
INC
Prodotiscus regulus
INC
INC
Psalidoprocne pristoptera
INC
INC
Pterocles lichtensteinii
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Ptilopachus petrosus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Pyrrhurus scandens
INC
NO CHANGE
Pytilia hypogrammica
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Pytilia melba
INC
INC
Quelea quelea
INC
INC
Rallus caerulescens
INC
INC
Schoenicola brevirostris
INC
INC
Serinus gularis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Serinus leucopygius
INC
INC
Serinus mozambicus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Spermophaga haematina
INC
INC
Sporopipes frontalis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Stephanoaetus coronatus
INC
INC
Streptopelia decipiens
NO CHANGE
INC
Streptopelia semitorquata
NO CHANGE
DEC
Streptopelia vinacea
INC
NO CHANGE
Strix woodfordii
INC
INC
Sylvietta brachyura
INC
NO CHANGE
Tauraco leucolophus
NO CHANGE
INC
Tchagra australis
NO CHANGE
INC
Telophorus multicolor
INC
INC
Telophorus sulfureopectus
DEC
DEC
Terathopius ecaudatus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Thalassornis leuconotus
INC
INC
Thamnolaea cinnamomeiventris
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Tockus fasciatus
INC
INC
Tockus hartlaubi
INC
INC
Trachyphonus purpuratus
INC
INC
Treron calvus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Trigonoceps occipitalis
INC
INC
Turnix hottentottus
INC
NO CHANGE
Turtur abyssinicus
INC
INC
Turtur tympanistria
INC
INC
Uraeginthus bengalus
INC
NO CHANGE
Urocolius macrourus
INC
INC
Vanellus crassirostris
INC
INC
Vanellus lugubris
INC
INC
Vanellus spinosus
INC
NO CHANGE
Vanellus tectus
INC
INC
Vidua camerunensis
INC
INC
Vidua paradisaea
INC
INC
Vidua raricola
INC
INC
Vidua togoensis
INC
INC

The full description of the methodology used for this assessment can be downloaded here: Species Distribution Model

Download the full set of data for Afaka (CSV file).

< Return to Official Record for Afaka