Climate change vulnerability assessments

The boundaries and names shown, and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations or IUCN

Name

Gwanara

  • WDPA ID

    36575

  • Country

    NGA

  • IUCN category

    Not Reported

Species vulnerable to climate change

According to Traits-based Vulnerability Assessments (TVAs)

Vulnerable Species Total Species
Amphibian
3
25
Bird
33
328
Mammal
5
103
Total
41
456

8 % of bird, amphibian, and mammal species assessed are considered vulnerable to climate change

Expected species turnover

According to Species Distribution Models (SDMs)

Percentage of species turnover: Median (95% Confidence Interval)

by 2010-2039 by 2040-2069
Bird
  • 10.1%
  • 12.8%
  • 16.3%
  • 14.8%
  • 18.4%
  • 32.3%
Mammal
  • 7.1%
  • 10.4%
  • 17.3%
  • 12.1%
  • 18.1%
  • 28.6%
Amphibian
  • 7.8%
  • 11.6%
  • 20.5%
  • 13.5%
  • 22.4%
  • 45.5%

Vulnerable species

Name Order Exposure

by 2010-2039   by 2040-2069

IUCN Red List category Sensitivity

to climate change

Adaptability

to climate change

Caprimulgus europaeus Caprimulgiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Low reproductive capacity
Falco peregrinus Falconiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Low genetic diversity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Himantopus himantopus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Lybius vieilloti Piciformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Pelecanus onocrotalus Pelecaniformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Tringa totanus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Chelictinia riocourii Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
Rhinopomastus aterrimus Coraciiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Apus apus Apodiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Circus macrourus Falconiformes
NT
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Falco alopex Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
Apus pallidus Apodiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Slow turnover of generations
Bucorvus abyssinicus Coraciiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Accipiter erythropus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Ciconia ciconia Ciconiiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Glareola cinerea Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Hieraaetus pennatus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Lymnocryptes minimus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Extrinsic barriers to dispersal
Tringa erythropus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Extrinsic barriers to dispersal
Tachymarptis melba Apodiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Upupa epops Coraciiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Circus aeruginosus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Neophron percnopterus Falconiformes
EN
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Cuculus canorus Cuculiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Pernis apivorus Falconiformes
LC
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Telacanthura ussheri Apodiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
Tauraco persa Cuculiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Merops malimbicus Coraciiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Bycanistes fistulator Coraciiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Pogoniulus bilineatus Piciformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Nectarinia verticalis Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Fraseria cinerascens Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Glareola nuchalis Charadriiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity

The full description of the methodology used for this assessment can be downloaded here: Traits-based Vulnerability Assessments

Expected changes in climate suitability

Name By 2010-2039 By 2040-2069
Torgos tracheliotos
INC
INC
Ortyxelos meiffrenii
INC
INC
Circaetus beaudouini
INC
INC
Elminia longicauda
INC
INC
Struthio camelus
INC
INC
Ardeotis arabs
INC
INC
Streptopelia roseogrisea
INC
INC
Nectarinia chloropygia
INC
INC
Psalidoprocne nitens
INC
INC
Telacanthura ussheri
NO CHANGE
DEC
Elminia nigromitrata
INC
NO CHANGE
Bubo poensis
INC
INC
Pogoniulus subsulphureus
INC
INC
Pteronetta hartlaubii
INC
INC
Tricholaema hirsuta
INC
INC
Campethera nivosa
INC
INC
Cossypha cyanocampter
INC
INC
Prodotiscus insignis
INC
NO CHANGE
Trochocercus nitens
INC
NO CHANGE
Andropadus gracilis
INC
INC
Oriolus brachyrhynchus
INC
INC
Stiphrornis erythrothorax
INC
NO CHANGE
Andropadus latirostris
INC
INC
Baeopogon indicator
INC
INC
Chlorocichla simplex
INC
INC
Pogoniulus scolopaceus
INC
INC
Turtur brehmeri
INC
INC
Urotriorchis macrourus
INC
NO CHANGE
Gymnobucco calvus
INC
NO CHANGE
Pogoniulus bilineatus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Sylvietta virens
INC
INC
Sarothrura pulchra
INC
INC
Smithornis rufolateralis
INC
NO CHANGE
Camaroptera chloronota
INC
INC
Centropus leucogaster
NO CHANGE
INC
Columba iriditorques
INC
INC
Criniger calurus
INC
INC
Pogoniulus atroflavus
INC
INC
Phyllastrephus icterinus
INC
INC
Merops gularis
INC
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia superba
INC
INC
Fraseria cinerascens
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Muscicapa epulata
INC
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia minulla
INC
NO CHANGE
Bubo leucostictus
INC
NO CHANGE
Phyllastrephus albigularis
INC
INC
Platysteira castanea
INC
INC
Bias musicus
INC
INC
Dryotriorchis spectabilis
INC
NO CHANGE
Muscicapa cassini
INC
INC
Myioparus griseigularis
INC
NO CHANGE
Tauraco macrorhynchus
INC
NO CHANGE
Pholidornis rushiae
INC
NO CHANGE
Andropadus ansorgei
INC
NO CHANGE
Anthreptes rectirostris
INC
INC
Canirallus oculeus
INC
NO CHANGE
Illadopsis fulvescens
INC
INC
Muscicapa comitata
INC
INC
Nectarinia johannae
INC
INC
Sylvietta denti
INC
INC
Nectarinia seimundi
INC
INC
Thescelocichla leucopleura
INC
INC
Columba unicincta
INC
NO CHANGE
Corythaeola cristata
INC
INC
Nectarinia cyanolaema
INC
NO CHANGE
Buccanodon duchaillui
INC
INC
Gymnobucco peli
INC
NO CHANGE
Ixonotus guttatus
INC
INC
Stizorhina fraseri
INC
NO CHANGE
Illadopsis rufipennis
INC
NO CHANGE
Sheppardia cyornithopsis
INC
NO CHANGE
Bostrychia olivacea
INC
NO CHANGE
Lamprotornis splendidus
INC
INC
Corvus ruficollis
INC
INC
Bycanistes albotibialis
INC
INC
Apalis rufogularis
INC
INC
Scotopelia bouvieri
INC
INC
Dryoscopus senegalensis
INC
INC
Nectarinia rubescens
INC
INC
Muscicapa sethsmithi
INC
NO CHANGE
Tockus camurus
INC
NO CHANGE
Francolinus lathami
INC
INC
Uromanis tetradactyla
INC
INC
Lybius bidentatus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Phoeniculus castaneiceps
INC
NO CHANGE
Tigriornis leucolopha
INC
INC
Tockus erythrorhynchus
INC
INC
Accipiter melanoleucus
INC
INC
Accipiter ovampensis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Acrocephalus rufescens
INC
INC
Aenigmatolimnas marginalis
INC
INC
Agapornis pullarius
INC
INC
Alcedo leucogaster
INC
INC
Alethe diademata
INC
INC
Alethe poliocephala
INC
INC
Alopochen aegyptiaca
INC
INC
Amadina fasciata
INC
INC
Amandava subflava
INC
INC
Amblyospiza albifrons
INC
INC
Ammomanes deserti
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Anaplectes rubriceps
INC
INC
Anas capensis
INC
NO CHANGE
Anas hottentota
INC
INC
Anas sparsa
INC
INC
Anastomus lamelligerus
INC
INC
Andropadus curvirostris
INC
NO CHANGE
Andropadus gracilirostris
INC
INC
Anomalospiza imberbis
INC
INC
Anthoscopus parvulus
INC
INC
Anthoscopus punctifrons
NO CHANGE
INC
Anthreptes collaris
INC
INC
Anthreptes fraseri
INC
INC
Anthreptes gabonicus
INC
INC
Anthreptes longuemarei
NO CHANGE
DEC
Anthreptes platurus
INC
INC
Anthus leucophrys
NO CHANGE
DEC
Anthus similis
INC
INC
Apalis flavida
NO CHANGE
DEC
Apalis nigriceps
INC
NO CHANGE
Apalis sharpii
INC
INC
Aplopelia larvata
INC
NO CHANGE
Aquila africanus
INC
NO CHANGE
Asio capensis
INC
INC
Aviceda cuculoides
NO CHANGE
DEC
Balaeniceps rex
INC
INC
Balearica pavonina
INC
INC
Bleda canicapillus
INC
INC
Bradornis pallidus
DEC
DEC
Bradypterus baboecala
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Bubalornis albirostris
INC
INC
Buphagus africanus
INC
INC
Burhinus vermiculatus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Butastur rufipennis
INC
INC
Bycanistes subcylindricus
INC
INC
Calyptocichla serina
INC
NO CHANGE
Camaroptera superciliaris
INC
INC
Campephaga phoenicea
INC
NO CHANGE
Campethera abingoni
INC
INC
Campethera caroli
INC
NO CHANGE
Campethera maculosa
NO CHANGE
INC
Caprimulgus inornatus
INC
INC
Caprimulgus natalensis
INC
INC
Caprimulgus nigriscapularis
INC
INC
Caprimulgus tristigma
NO CHANGE
DEC
Centropus monachus
INC
INC
Cercococcyx mechowi
INC
NO CHANGE
Cercomela familiaris
NO CHANGE
DEC
Ceuthmochares aereus
INC
INC
Ceyx lecontei
INC
NO CHANGE
Chrysococcyx cupreus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Circaetus cinerascens
NO CHANGE
DEC
Circaetus cinereus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Cisticola aberrans
INC
INC
Cisticola aridulus
INC
INC
Cisticola brachypterus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Cisticola cantans
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Cisticola erythrops
NO CHANGE
DEC
Cisticola eximius
INC
INC
Cisticola galactotes
INC
INC
Cisticola guinea
INC
INC
Cisticola lateralis
INC
INC
Cisticola natalensis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Cisticola ruficeps
INC
INC
Cisticola rufus
INC
INC
Cisticola troglodytes
INC
INC
Clamator glandarius
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Coracias naevia
NO CHANGE
DEC
Coracina azurea
INC
INC
Coracina pectoralis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Corvus rhipidurus
INC
INC
Cossypha albicapilla
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Cossypha natalensis
INC
INC
Cossypha polioptera
INC
INC
Coturnix delegorguei
INC
INC
Crecopsis egregia
DEC
DEC
Criniger barbatus
INC
INC
Cuculus solitarius
NO CHANGE
DEC
Cursorius temminckii
DEC
DEC
Dendropicos fuscescens
NO CHANGE
DEC
Dendropicos gabonensis
INC
INC
Dicrurus ludwigii
DEC
DEC
Drymocichla incana
INC
INC
Dryoscopus sabini
INC
NO CHANGE
Egretta ardesiaca
INC
INC
Egretta gularis
INC
INC
Emberiza affinis
INC
INC
Emberiza cabanisi
INC
INC
Emberiza flaviventris
INC
INC
Emberiza striolata
INC
NO CHANGE
Emberiza tahapisi
INC
INC
Empidornis semipartitus
NO CHANGE
INC
Ephippiorhynchus senegalensis
INC
INC
Eremomela badiceps
INC
NO CHANGE
Eremomela icteropygialis
INC
INC
Eremopterix nigriceps
NO CHANGE
INC
Erythrocercus mccallii
INC
INC
Erythropygia galactotes
INC
INC
Erythropygia leucosticta
INC
INC
Estrilda troglodytes
INC
INC
Euplectes ardens
NO CHANGE
INC
Euplectes axillaris
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Euplectes franciscanus
INC
INC
Eupodotis senegalensis
INC
INC
Eurystomus gularis
INC
INC
Falco cuvierii
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Francolinus ahantensis
INC
INC
Francolinus clappertoni
INC
INC
Francolinus coqui
NO CHANGE
INC
Francolinus icterorhynchus
INC
INC
Francolinus squamatus
INC
INC
Fraseria ocreata
INC
NO CHANGE
Gallinula angulata
INC
INC
Glaucidium tephronotum
INC
NO CHANGE
Guttera pucherani
INC
INC
Halcyon badia
INC
NO CHANGE
Halcyon chelicuti
NO CHANGE
DEC
Heliolais erythropterus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Hieraaetus ayresii
INC
INC
Himantornis haematopus
INC
NO CHANGE
Hippolais pallida
NO CHANGE
INC
Hirundo abyssinica
DEC
DEC
Hirundo fuligula
DEC
DEC
Hirundo leucosoma
NO CHANGE
DEC
Hirundo lucida
INC
INC
Hirundo nigrita
INC
INC
Hirundo senegalensis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Hylia prasina
INC
INC
Hyliota flavigaster
INC
INC
Hyliota violacea
INC
INC
Illadopsis puveli
INC
INC
Indicator exilis
INC
INC
Indicator indicator
NO CHANGE
DEC
Indicator willcocksi
INC
INC
Lagonosticta rara
NO CHANGE
DEC
Lagonosticta rhodopareia
INC
INC
Lagonosticta rubricata
INC
NO CHANGE
Lamprotornis caudatus
INC
INC
Lamprotornis chalcurus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Lamprotornis chalybaeus
INC
INC
Lamprotornis chloropterus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Lamprotornis pulcher
NO CHANGE
INC
Laniarius aethiopicus
INC
INC
Laniarius erythrogaster
INC
INC
Laniarius leucorhynchus
INC
INC
Lanius collaris
INC
INC
Lanius gubernator
INC
INC
Leptoptilos crumeniferus
INC
INC
Lonchura bicolor
INC
INC
Lonchura cantans
INC
INC
Lonchura cucullata
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Lonchura fringilloides
INC
INC
Macheiramphus alcinus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Macrodipteryx longipennis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Macrosphenus concolor
INC
INC
Macrosphenus kempi
INC
NO CHANGE
Malaconotus blanchoti
NO CHANGE
DEC
Malaconotus cruentus
INC
NO CHANGE
Malimbus malimbicus
INC
NO CHANGE
Malimbus nitens
INC
INC
Malimbus rubricollis
INC
INC
Malimbus scutatus
INC
INC
Mandingoa nitidula
INC
INC
Megabyas flammulatus
INC
INC
Melaenornis edolioides
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Melichneutes robustus
INC
INC
Melierax gabar
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Melocichla mentalis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Merops hirundineus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Merops mentalis
INC
NO CHANGE
Merops pusillus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Microparra capensis
INC
INC
Mirafra africana
INC
INC
Mirafra albicauda
NO CHANGE
INC
Mirafra cantillans
INC
INC
Mirafra rufocinnamomea
NO CHANGE
DEC
Motacilla aguimp
NO CHANGE
DEC
Muscicapa aquatica
INC
INC
Muscicapa caerulescens
INC
INC
Muscicapa gambagae
INC
INC
Myrmecocichla aethiops
NO CHANGE
INC
Nectarinia adelberti
INC
INC
Nectarinia coccinigaster
INC
INC
Nectarinia olivacea
INC
INC
Nectarinia pulchella
NO CHANGE
INC
Nectarinia venusta
DEC
DEC
Neocossyphus poensis
INC
INC
Nesocharis capistrata
INC
INC
Nigrita bicolor
INC
INC
Nigrita canicapillus
INC
NO CHANGE
Nigrita fusconotus
INC
INC
Nigrita luteifrons
INC
NO CHANGE
Numida meleagris
NO CHANGE
DEC
Oena capensis
INC
INC
Oenanthe heuglini
INC
INC
Onychognathus fulgidus
INC
INC
Onychognathus morio
INC
INC
Oriolus nigripennis
INC
INC
Ortygospiza atricollis
INC
INC
Otus leucotis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Otus senegalensis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Pachycoccyx audeberti
INC
INC
Pelecanus rufescens
INC
INC
Petronia pyrgita
INC
INC
Phoenicopterus roseus
INC
INC
Phyllanthus atripennis
INC
INC
Pitta angolensis
INC
NO CHANGE
Platysteira blissetti
INC
NO CHANGE
Plectropterus gambensis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Plocepasser superciliosus
INC
INC
Ploceus luteolus
INC
INC
Ploceus melanocephalus
INC
INC
Ploceus nigerrimus
INC
INC
Ploceus nigricollis
INC
INC
Ploceus superciliosus
INC
INC
Poeoptera lugubris
INC
NO CHANGE
Poicephalus robustus
INC
INC
Prinia subflava
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Prionops caniceps
INC
INC
Prodotiscus regulus
NO CHANGE
INC
Psalidoprocne pristoptera
INC
INC
Pseudhirundo griseopyga
INC
INC
Pterocles lichtensteinii
INC
INC
Pterocles quadricinctus
INC
INC
Ptilopachus petrosus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Pyrenestes ostrinus
INC
INC
Pyrrhurus scandens
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Pytilia hypogrammica
INC
INC
Pytilia melba
INC
INC
Pytilia phoenicoptera
INC
INC
Quelea quelea
NO CHANGE
INC
Rallus caerulescens
INC
INC
Rhaphidura sabini
INC
NO CHANGE
Rynchops flavirostris
INC
INC
Schoenicola brevirostris
INC
INC
Scotopelia peli
INC
INC
Serinus gularis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Serinus leucopygius
INC
INC
Serinus mozambicus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Spermophaga haematina
INC
INC
Sporopipes frontalis
INC
INC
Stephanoaetus coronatus
INC
INC
Stigmatopelia senegalensis
INC
INC
Streptopelia decipiens
NO CHANGE
INC
Strix woodfordii
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Tchagra australis
INC
INC
Tchagra minutus
INC
INC
Telophorus multicolor
INC
INC
Telophorus sulfureopectus
DEC
DEC
Terathopius ecaudatus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Thalassornis leuconotus
INC
INC
Thamnolaea cinnamomeiventris
INC
INC
Thripias pyrrhogaster
INC
INC
Tockus fasciatus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Tockus hartlaubi
INC
INC
Trachyphonus purpuratus
DEC
DEC
Treron calvus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Trigonoceps occipitalis
INC
INC
Tropicranus albocristatus
INC
INC
Turdoides plebejus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Turtur abyssinicus
INC
INC
Turtur tympanistria
INC
INC
Urocolius macrourus
NO CHANGE
INC
Vanellus crassirostris
NO CHANGE
INC
Vanellus lugubris
INC
INC
Vanellus superciliosus
INC
INC
Vanellus tectus
INC
INC
Vidua camerunensis
INC
INC
Vidua larvaticola
INC
INC
Vidua paradisaea
INC
INC
Vidua raricola
INC
INC
Vidua togoensis
INC
INC
Vidua wilsoni
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Zoothera princei
INC
INC
Zosterops senegalensis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE

The full description of the methodology used for this assessment can be downloaded here: Species Distribution Model