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Climate change vulnerability assessments

The boundaries and names shown, and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations or IUCN

Name

Wafin

  • WDPA ID

    36667

  • Country

    NGA

  • IUCN category

    Not Reported

Species vulnerable to climate change

According to Traits-based Vulnerability Assessments (TVAs)

Vulnerable Species Total Species
Amphibian
3
28
Bird
41
392
Mammal
4
103
Total
48
523

9 % of bird, amphibian, and mammal species assessed are considered vulnerable to climate change

Expected species turnover

According to Species Distribution Models (SDMs)

Percentage of species turnover: Median (95% Confidence Interval)

by 2010-2039 by 2040-2069
Bird
  • 11.0%
  • 14.7%
  • 19.1%
  • 13.0%
  • 19.2%
  • 23.7%
Mammal
  • 12.5%
  • 15.9%
  • 20.4%
  • 13.4%
  • 18.6%
  • 23.6%
Amphibian
  • 12.8%
  • 19.0%
  • 26.7%
  • 14.2%
  • 22.4%
  • 33.2%

Vulnerable species

Name Order Exposure

by 2010-2039   by 2040-2069

 IUCN Red List category Sensitivity

to climate change

 Adaptability

to climate change
Caprimulgus europaeus Caprimulgiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Low reproductive capacity
Falco peregrinus Falconiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Low genetic diversity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Himantopus himantopus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Lybius vieilloti Piciformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Pelecanus onocrotalus Pelecaniformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Tringa totanus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Chelictinia riocourii Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
Ciconia nigra Ciconiiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Rhinopomastus aterrimus Coraciiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Apus apus Apodiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Circus macrourus Falconiformes
NT
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Falco alopex Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
Falco subbuteo Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Anas acuta Anseriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Apus pallidus Apodiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Slow turnover of generations
Bucorvus abyssinicus Coraciiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Ciconia ciconia Ciconiiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Circus pygargus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Glareola cinerea Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Hieraaetus pennatus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Lymnocryptes minimus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Extrinsic barriers to dispersal
Tringa erythropus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Extrinsic barriers to dispersal
Circaetus gallicus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Tachymarptis melba Apodiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Upupa epops Coraciiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Circaetus beaudouini Falconiformes
VU
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Circus aeruginosus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Neophron percnopterus Falconiformes
EN
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Lybius leucocephalus Piciformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Recurvirostra avosetta Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Pernis apivorus Falconiformes
LC
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Telacanthura ussheri Apodiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
Tauraco persa Cuculiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Andropadus gracilis Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Low reproductive capacity
Baeopogon indicator Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Pogoniulus bilineatus Piciformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Sarothrura pulchra Gruiformes
LC
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Nectarinia verticalis Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Fraseria cinerascens Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Corythaeola cristata Cuculiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Accipiter castanilius Falconiformes
LC
  • Habitat specialisation
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity

The full description of the methodology used for this assessment can be downloaded here: Traits-based Vulnerability Assessments

Expected changes in climate suitability

Name By 2010-2039 By 2040-2069
Lybius vieilloti
INC
INC
Rhinopomastus aterrimus
NO CHANGE
INC
Ortyxelos meiffrenii
INC
INC
Bucorvus abyssinicus
INC
INC
Accipiter erythropus
INC
INC
Elminia longicauda
NO CHANGE
INC
Struthio camelus
INC
INC
Ardeotis arabs
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Streptopelia roseogrisea
INC
INC
Nectarinia chloropygia
INC
INC
Psalidoprocne nitens
INC
INC
Elminia nigromitrata
INC
INC
Merops malimbicus
INC
INC
Bubo poensis
INC
INC
Pogoniulus subsulphureus
INC
INC
Pteronetta hartlaubii
INC
INC
Tricholaema hirsuta
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Campethera nivosa
INC
INC
Cossypha cyanocampter
INC
INC
Nicator chloris
INC
INC
Prodotiscus insignis
INC
INC
Psittacus erithacus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Trochocercus nitens
NO CHANGE
INC
Bostrychia rara
INC
NO CHANGE
Oriolus brachyrhynchus
INC
INC
Andropadus latirostris
INC
NO CHANGE
Chlorocichla simplex
INC
INC
Pogoniulus scolopaceus
INC
INC
Turtur brehmeri
NO CHANGE
INC
Urotriorchis macrourus
INC
NO CHANGE
Gymnobucco calvus
INC
INC
Pogoniulus bilineatus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Sylvietta virens
NO CHANGE
INC
Smithornis rufolateralis
NO CHANGE
INC
Camaroptera chloronota
INC
INC
Columba iriditorques
INC
INC
Criniger calurus
INC
INC
Pogoniulus atroflavus
INC
INC
Phyllastrephus icterinus
NO CHANGE
INC
Merops gularis
NO CHANGE
INC
Nectarinia superba
INC
INC
Bubo leucostictus
INC
INC
Bias musicus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Dryotriorchis spectabilis
INC
INC
Muscicapa cassini
INC
INC
Myioparus griseigularis
INC
NO CHANGE
Tauraco macrorhynchus
INC
INC
Pholidornis rushiae
INC
INC
Andropadus ansorgei
INC
INC
Anthreptes rectirostris
NO CHANGE
INC
Canirallus oculeus
NO CHANGE
INC
Muscicapa comitata
INC
INC
Nectarinia johannae
NO CHANGE
INC
Sylvietta denti
NO CHANGE
INC
Nectarinia seimundi
INC
INC
Thescelocichla leucopleura
INC
INC
Columba unicincta
INC
INC
Corythaeola cristata
INC
INC
Nectarinia cyanolaema
INC
INC
Bleda syndactylus
INC
NO CHANGE
Buccanodon duchaillui
NO CHANGE
INC
Gymnobucco peli
NO CHANGE
INC
Ixonotus guttatus
INC
INC
Stizorhina fraseri
NO CHANGE
INC
Dicrurus atripennis
INC
NO CHANGE
Illadopsis rufipennis
NO CHANGE
INC
Sheppardia cyornithopsis
INC
NO CHANGE
Bostrychia olivacea
INC
INC
Lamprotornis splendidus
DEC
NO CHANGE
Tachymarptis aequatorialis
INC
NO CHANGE
Bycanistes albotibialis
NO CHANGE
INC
Apalis rufogularis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Scotopelia bouvieri
INC
INC
Accipiter castanilius
INC
INC
Dryoscopus senegalensis
NO CHANGE
INC
Macrosphenus flavicans
INC
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia rubescens
INC
INC
Prinia leucopogon
NO CHANGE
INC
Tockus nasutus
INC
INC
Francolinus lathami
INC
INC
Uromanis tetradactyla
NO CHANGE
INC
Tigriornis leucolopha
INC
INC
Accipiter melanoleucus
INC
INC
Accipiter ovampensis
DEC
NO CHANGE
Accipiter tachiro
INC
INC
Acrocephalus gracilirostris
INC
INC
Acrocephalus rufescens
INC
INC
Alcedo leucogaster
INC
INC
Alethe diademata
INC
INC
Alethe poliocephala
INC
INC
Alopochen aegyptiaca
NO CHANGE
DEC
Amadina fasciata
INC
INC
Anas hottentota
INC
INC
Anas sparsa
INC
INC
Anastomus lamelligerus
DEC
DEC
Andropadus curvirostris
INC
INC
Andropadus gracilirostris
INC
INC
Andropadus virens
INC
INC
Anhinga rufa
DEC
NO CHANGE
Anomalospiza imberbis
DEC
DEC
Anthreptes collaris
DEC
NO CHANGE
Anthreptes fraseri
INC
INC
Anthreptes gabonicus
INC
INC
Anthreptes platurus
INC
INC
Anthus similis
INC
INC
Apalis jacksoni
INC
NO CHANGE
Apalis nigriceps
INC
INC
Apalis sharpii
INC
INC
Apaloderma narina
DEC
DEC
Aplopelia larvata
INC
NO CHANGE
Apus horus
INC
NO CHANGE
Aquila wahlbergi
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Asio capensis
INC
INC
Balaeniceps rex
INC
INC
Balearica pavonina
INC
INC
Batis erlangeri
NO CHANGE
INC
Bostrychia hagedash
INC
INC
Bradypterus baboecala
INC
INC
Burhinus senegalensis
INC
INC
Butastur rufipennis
INC
INC
Bycanistes subcylindricus
INC
INC
Calandrella cinerea
DEC
DEC
Calyptocichla serina
NO CHANGE
INC
Camaroptera superciliaris
INC
INC
Campephaga phoenicea
INC
INC
Campephaga quiscalina
INC
INC
Campethera abingoni
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Campethera cailliautii
INC
INC
Campethera caroli
NO CHANGE
INC
Campethera punctuligera
INC
INC
Caprimulgus climacurus
INC
INC
Caprimulgus inornatus
INC
INC
Caprimulgus natalensis
INC
INC
Centropus monachus
NO CHANGE
INC
Centropus senegalensis
INC
INC
Ceratogymna elata
INC
INC
Cercococcyx mechowi
INC
INC
Ceuthmochares aereus
NO CHANGE
INC
Ceyx lecontei
INC
INC
Charadrius marginatus
INC
INC
Charadrius pecuarius
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Chloropeta natalensis
INC
INC
Chrysococcyx cupreus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Ciconia abdimii
INC
INC
Circaetus cinerascens
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Cisticola guinea
INC
INC
Cisticola lateralis
INC
INC
Cisticola robustus
INC
INC
Cisticola ruficeps
INC
INC
Cisticola rufus
INC
INC
Cisticola troglodytes
INC
INC
Clamator jacobinus
DEC
DEC
Clytospiza monteiri
NO CHANGE
INC
Colius striatus
INC
INC
Coracias abyssinicus
INC
INC
Coracina azurea
NO CHANGE
INC
Corvus rhipidurus
INC
INC
Cossypha natalensis
INC
INC
Cossypha niveicapilla
INC
NO CHANGE
Cossypha polioptera
INC
INC
Coturnix delegorguei
INC
INC
Crecopsis egregia
DEC
DEC
Cuculus solitarius
DEC
DEC
Cursorius temminckii
DEC
DEC
Dendrocopos obsoletus
INC
INC
Dendropicos fuscescens
DEC
DEC
Dendropicos gabonensis
NO CHANGE
INC
Dendropicos poecilolaemus
NO CHANGE
INC
Drymocichla incana
INC
INC
Dryoscopus gambensis
INC
INC
Egretta ardesiaca
INC
INC
Egretta gularis
INC
INC
Emberiza cabanisi
INC
INC
Emberiza flaviventris
INC
INC
Empidornis semipartitus
NO CHANGE
INC
Ephippiorhynchus senegalensis
DEC
DEC
Eremomela badiceps
INC
INC
Eremomela icteropygialis
INC
INC
Eremomela pusilla
INC
INC
Erythrocercus mccallii
INC
INC
Erythropygia galactotes
INC
INC
Erythropygia leucosticta
INC
INC
Estrilda astrild
NO CHANGE
INC
Estrilda nonnula
NO CHANGE
INC
Euplectes afer
INC
INC
Euplectes ardens
NO CHANGE
DEC
Euplectes capensis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Falco biarmicus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Francolinus ahantensis
INC
INC
Francolinus clappertoni
INC
INC
Francolinus coqui
INC
INC
Francolinus icterorhynchus
INC
INC
Francolinus squamatus
DEC
DEC
Fraseria ocreata
INC
INC
Galerida modesta
INC
INC
Gallinula angulata
DEC
DEC
Glaucidium tephronotum
INC
INC
Guttera pucherani
INC
INC
Halcyon badia
NO CHANGE
INC
Hieraaetus ayresii
INC
INC
Himantornis haematopus
INC
INC
Hippolais pallida
INC
NO CHANGE
Hirundo abyssinica
DEC
DEC
Hirundo lucida
INC
INC
Hirundo nigrita
INC
INC
Hylia prasina
INC
INC
Hyliota violacea
INC
INC
Illadopsis puveli
INC
INC
Indicator exilis
INC
INC
Jynx ruficollis
NO CHANGE
INC
Lagonosticta larvata
NO CHANGE
INC
Lagonosticta rhodopareia
INC
INC
Lagonosticta rubricata
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Lagonosticta rufopicta
INC
INC
Lamprotornis chalcurus
NO CHANGE
INC
Lamprotornis chalybaeus
INC
INC
Lamprotornis chloropterus
INC
INC
Lamprotornis purpureus
NO CHANGE
INC
Laniarius aethiopicus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Laniarius erythrogaster
INC
INC
Laniarius leucorhynchus
INC
INC
Lanius collaris
INC
INC
Lanius gubernator
INC
INC
Leptoptilos crumeniferus
INC
INC
Lonchura bicolor
INC
INC
Macheiramphus alcinus
DEC
DEC
Macrodipteryx longipennis
NO CHANGE
INC
Macronyx croceus
NO CHANGE
INC
Macrosphenus concolor
INC
INC
Malaconotus cruentus
INC
INC
Malimbus rubricollis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Malimbus scutatus
INC
INC
Mandingoa nitidula
INC
INC
Melaenornis edolioides
NO CHANGE
INC
Melichneutes robustus
INC
INC
Melierax gabar
DEC
NO CHANGE
Merops bulocki
NO CHANGE
INC
Merops hirundineus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Merops mentalis
INC
NO CHANGE
Merops nubicus
NO CHANGE
INC
Merops variegatus
INC
INC
Mesopicos goertae
INC
INC
Microparra capensis
INC
INC
Mirafra africana
DEC
DEC
Mirafra rufocinnamomea
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Motacilla aguimp
INC
INC
Motacilla clara
NO CHANGE
INC
Muscicapa aquatica
NO CHANGE
INC
Muscicapa caerulescens
INC
INC
Muscicapa infuscata
INC
NO CHANGE
Musophaga rossae
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Myrmecocichla nigra
NO CHANGE
INC
Necrosyrtes monachus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia coccinigaster
INC
INC
Nectarinia pulchella
NO CHANGE
INC
Nectarinia senegalensis
DEC
NO CHANGE
Neocossyphus poensis
INC
INC
Neotis denhami
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Nigrita bicolor
NO CHANGE
INC
Nigrita canicapillus
NO CHANGE
INC
Nigrita fusconotus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Nigrita luteifrons
NO CHANGE
INC
Oena capensis
INC
NO CHANGE
Oenanthe heuglini
INC
INC
Onychognathus fulgidus
NO CHANGE
INC
Oriolus nigripennis
NO CHANGE
INC
Otus leucotis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Pachycoccyx audeberti
NO CHANGE
DEC
Parus funereus
NO CHANGE
INC
Pelecanus rufescens
INC
INC
Phoenicopterus roseus
INC
INC
Phyllolais pulchella
INC
INC
Pinarocorys erythropygia
NO CHANGE
INC
Pitta angolensis
NO CHANGE
INC
Platalea alba
INC
INC
Platysteira blissetti
INC
INC
Platysteira cyanea
NO CHANGE
INC
Plegadis falcinellus
INC
INC
Ploceus baglafecht
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Ploceus bicolor
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Ploceus luteolus
INC
INC
Ploceus melanocephalus
INC
INC
Ploceus nigerrimus
INC
INC
Ploceus ocularis
NO CHANGE
INC
Ploceus superciliosus
INC
INC
Ploceus vitellinus
INC
INC
Pluvianus aegyptius
INC
INC
Poicephalus robustus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Prionops caniceps
INC
INC
Prodotiscus regulus
INC
INC
Psalidoprocne pristoptera
INC
INC
Pseudhirundo griseopyga
DEC
DEC
Pterocles quadricinctus
INC
INC
Ptilopachus petrosus
INC
INC
Pytilia melba
INC
INC
Quelea quelea
INC
INC
Rallus caerulescens
INC
INC
Rhaphidura sabini
NO CHANGE
INC
Rynchops flavirostris
DEC
NO CHANGE
Sagittarius serpentarius
DEC
NO CHANGE
Sarothrura elegans
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Sarothrura rufa
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Schoenicola brevirostris
INC
INC
Serinus leucopygius
INC
INC
Sheppardia bocagei
INC
NO CHANGE
Stephanoaetus coronatus
INC
INC
Streptopelia semitorquata
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Streptopelia vinacea
INC
INC
Sylvietta brachyura
INC
INC
Tauraco leucolophus
INC
INC
Tchagra australis
NO CHANGE
INC
Tchagra minutus
DEC
DEC
Telophorus multicolor
INC
INC
Telophorus sulfureopectus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Terathopius ecaudatus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Terpsiphone rufocinerea
NO CHANGE
INC
Thalassornis leuconotus
INC
INC
Threskiornis aethiopicus
DEC
DEC
Thripias pyrrhogaster
NO CHANGE
INC
Thripias xantholophus
INC
NO CHANGE
Tockus hartlaubi
INC
INC
Trachyphonus purpuratus
NO CHANGE
INC
Treron calvus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Turdoides plebejus
INC
INC
Turdus pelios
NO CHANGE
INC
Turnix hottentottus
INC
NO CHANGE
Turtur abyssinicus
INC
INC
Turtur afer
NO CHANGE
INC
Turtur tympanistria
INC
INC
Uraeginthus bengalus
NO CHANGE
INC
Urocolius macrourus
INC
INC
Vanellus crassirostris
INC
INC
Vanellus lugubris
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Vanellus spinosus
INC
NO CHANGE
Vanellus superciliosus
INC
INC
Vanellus tectus
INC
INC
Vidua paradisaea
INC
INC
Vidua togoensis
INC
INC
Vidua wilsoni
NO CHANGE
INC
Zosterops senegalensis
INC
NO CHANGE

The full description of the methodology used for this assessment can be downloaded here: Species Distribution Model

Download the full set of data for Wafin (CSV file).

< Return to Official Record for Wafin