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Climate change vulnerability assessments

The boundaries and names shown, and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations or IUCN

Name

Gurin

  • WDPA ID

    36703

  • Country

    NGA

  • IUCN category

    Not Reported

Species vulnerable to climate change

According to Traits-based Vulnerability Assessments (TVAs)

Vulnerable Species Total Species
Amphibian
3
30
Bird
28
344
Mammal
5
88
Total
36
462

7 % of bird, amphibian, and mammal species assessed are considered vulnerable to climate change

Expected species turnover

According to Species Distribution Models (SDMs)

Percentage of species turnover: Median (95% Confidence Interval)

by 2010-2039 by 2040-2069
Bird
  • 9.5%
  • 11.6%
  • 13.8%
  • 12.2%
  • 15.1%
  • 21.6%
Mammal
  • 8.8%
  • 10.3%
  • 13.3%
  • 11.1%
  • 13.7%
  • 19.4%
Amphibian
  • 5.5%
  • 9.4%
  • 16.2%
  • 9.6%
  • 15.5%
  • 25.1%

Vulnerable species

Name Order Exposure

by 2010-2039   by 2040-2069

 IUCN Red List category Sensitivity

to climate change

 Adaptability

to climate change
Caprimulgus europaeus Caprimulgiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Low reproductive capacity
Falco peregrinus Falconiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Low genetic diversity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Himantopus himantopus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Lybius vieilloti Piciformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Pelecanus onocrotalus Pelecaniformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Tringa totanus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Rhinopomastus aterrimus Coraciiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Apus apus Apodiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Circus macrourus Falconiformes
NT
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Falco alopex Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
Falco subbuteo Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Anas acuta Anseriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Apus pallidus Apodiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Slow turnover of generations
Bucorvus abyssinicus Coraciiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Circus pygargus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Glareola cinerea Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Hieraaetus pennatus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Lymnocryptes minimus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Extrinsic barriers to dispersal
Tringa erythropus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Extrinsic barriers to dispersal
Tachymarptis melba Apodiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Upupa epops Coraciiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Circaetus beaudouini Falconiformes
VU
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Circus aeruginosus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Lybius leucocephalus Piciformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Cuculus canorus Cuculiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Pernis apivorus Falconiformes
LC
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Tauraco persa Cuculiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Nectarinia verticalis Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity

The full description of the methodology used for this assessment can be downloaded here: Traits-based Vulnerability Assessments

Expected changes in climate suitability

Name By 2010-2039 By 2040-2069
Chelictinia riocourii
INC
INC
Torgos tracheliotos
INC
INC
Ortyxelos meiffrenii
INC
INC
Accipiter erythropus
INC
INC
Elminia longicauda
INC
INC
Struthio camelus
INC
INC
Ardeotis arabs
INC
INC
Streptopelia roseogrisea
INC
INC
Nectarinia chloropygia
INC
INC
Psalidoprocne nitens
INC
NO CHANGE
Telacanthura ussheri
INC
INC
Bubo poensis
INC
NO CHANGE
Bycanistes fistulator
INC
INC
Pteronetta hartlaubii
INC
NO CHANGE
Tricholaema hirsuta
INC
NO CHANGE
Campethera nivosa
INC
INC
Cossypha cyanocampter
INC
INC
Nicator chloris
NO CHANGE
INC
Andropadus gracilis
INC
NO CHANGE
Oriolus brachyrhynchus
INC
NO CHANGE
Andropadus latirostris
INC
NO CHANGE
Baeopogon indicator
INC
NO CHANGE
Chlorocichla simplex
INC
NO CHANGE
Pogoniulus scolopaceus
INC
NO CHANGE
Turtur brehmeri
INC
NO CHANGE
Pogoniulus bilineatus
INC
INC
Sylvietta virens
INC
INC
Sarothrura pulchra
INC
INC
Camaroptera chloronota
INC
INC
Columba iriditorques
INC
NO CHANGE
Pogoniulus atroflavus
INC
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia superba
INC
INC
Fraseria cinerascens
INC
INC
Phyllastrephus albigularis
INC
NO CHANGE
Muscicapa cassini
INC
NO CHANGE
Anthreptes rectirostris
INC
NO CHANGE
Glareola nuchalis
INC
INC
Illadopsis fulvescens
INC
INC
Muscicapa comitata
INC
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia johannae
INC
NO CHANGE
Sylvietta denti
INC
INC
Nectarinia seimundi
INC
NO CHANGE
Thescelocichla leucopleura
INC
INC
Corythaeola cristata
INC
NO CHANGE
Lamprotornis splendidus
INC
INC
Corvus ruficollis
NO CHANGE
INC
Cursorius cursor
NO CHANGE
INC
Tachymarptis aequatorialis
INC
INC
Apalis rufogularis
INC
NO CHANGE
Dryoscopus senegalensis
INC
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia rubescens
INC
NO CHANGE
Prinia leucopogon
INC
NO CHANGE
Pseudoalcippe abyssinica
INC
INC
Aquila verreauxii
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Lybius bidentatus
INC
INC
Tigriornis leucolopha
INC
INC
Accipiter melanoleucus
INC
INC
Accipiter ovampensis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Accipiter tachiro
INC
INC
Acrocephalus gracilirostris
NO CHANGE
INC
Acrocephalus rufescens
INC
INC
Aenigmatolimnas marginalis
INC
INC
Agapornis pullarius
INC
INC
Alaemon alaudipes
NO CHANGE
INC
Alcedo leucogaster
INC
INC
Alethe diademata
INC
INC
Alethe poliocephala
INC
NO CHANGE
Amadina fasciata
INC
INC
Amandava subflava
INC
INC
Ammomanes deserti
NO CHANGE
INC
Anaplectes rubriceps
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Anas capensis
INC
INC
Anas hottentota
INC
INC
Anas sparsa
DEC
NO CHANGE
Anastomus lamelligerus
DEC
NO CHANGE
Andropadus gracilirostris
INC
INC
Andropadus virens
INC
INC
Anthoscopus punctifrons
INC
INC
Anthreptes collaris
INC
INC
Anthreptes fraseri
INC
NO CHANGE
Anthreptes gabonicus
INC
INC
Anthreptes longuemarei
NO CHANGE
DEC
Anthus leucophrys
NO CHANGE
DEC
Anthus similis
INC
INC
Apalis flavida
INC
INC
Aplopelia larvata
INC
INC
Apus caffer
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Ardeola ralloides
INC
NO CHANGE
Asio capensis
INC
INC
Aviceda cuculoides
NO CHANGE
DEC
Balaeniceps rex
INC
INC
Balearica pavonina
INC
INC
Batis erlangeri
INC
INC
Batis orientalis
NO CHANGE
INC
Bleda canicapillus
INC
INC
Bradypterus baboecala
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Bubalornis albirostris
INC
INC
Butastur rufipennis
INC
INC
Bycanistes subcylindricus
INC
INC
Campephaga phoenicea
INC
NO CHANGE
Campethera abingoni
INC
INC
Campethera cailliautii
INC
INC
Caprimulgus inornatus
NO CHANGE
INC
Caprimulgus natalensis
INC
INC
Caprimulgus nigriscapularis
INC
INC
Caprimulgus tristigma
INC
INC
Centropus monachus
INC
INC
Cercomela familiaris
NO CHANGE
DEC
Cercotrichas podobe
INC
INC
Chloropeta natalensis
INC
INC
Chrysococcyx cupreus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Cisticola aberrans
INC
INC
Cisticola aridulus
INC
INC
Cisticola brachypterus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Cisticola eximius
INC
INC
Cisticola lateralis
INC
INC
Cisticola natalensis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Cisticola robustus
INC
INC
Cisticola ruficeps
INC
INC
Cisticola troglodytes
INC
INC
Clytospiza monteiri
INC
INC
Colius striatus
INC
INC
Columba guinea
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Coracias naevia
DEC
DEC
Coracina pectoralis
DEC
DEC
Corvus rhipidurus
INC
INC
Cossypha heuglini
INC
INC
Cossypha natalensis
INC
INC
Cossypha polioptera
INC
NO CHANGE
Coturnix delegorguei
INC
INC
Cuculus solitarius
DEC
NO CHANGE
Dendropicos poecilolaemus
INC
NO CHANGE
Dicrurus ludwigii
DEC
DEC
Egretta ardesiaca
INC
INC
Egretta gularis
INC
INC
Emberiza cabanisi
NO CHANGE
DEC
Emberiza flaviventris
INC
INC
Emberiza striolata
INC
INC
Empidornis semipartitus
INC
NO CHANGE
Eremomela icteropygialis
INC
INC
Eremopterix nigriceps
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Erythropygia galactotes
INC
INC
Erythropygia leucosticta
INC
NO CHANGE
Estrilda nonnula
INC
NO CHANGE
Euplectes ardens
INC
INC
Euplectes axillaris
INC
INC
Euplectes capensis
INC
NO CHANGE
Eupodotis senegalensis
INC
INC
Eurystomus gularis
INC
NO CHANGE
Euschistospiza dybowskii
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Falco biarmicus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Falco cuvierii
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Francolinus ahantensis
INC
INC
Francolinus clappertoni
INC
INC
Francolinus coqui
INC
INC
Francolinus icterorhynchus
INC
NO CHANGE
Francolinus squamatus
INC
NO CHANGE
Guttera pucherani
INC
NO CHANGE
Gymnobucco bonapartei
NO CHANGE
INC
Gypohierax angolensis
INC
INC
Halcyon chelicuti
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Heliolais erythropterus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Hieraaetus ayresii
INC
INC
Hippolais pallida
INC
INC
Hirundo abyssinica
DEC
DEC
Hirundo leucosoma
INC
INC
Hirundo lucida
INC
INC
Hirundo nigrita
INC
NO CHANGE
Hirundo preussi
INC
INC
Hylia prasina
INC
INC
Illadopsis puveli
INC
INC
Indicator exilis
INC
INC
Indicator indicator
NO CHANGE
DEC
Indicator maculatus
INC
INC
Jynx ruficollis
INC
NO CHANGE
Lagonosticta rara
DEC
DEC
Lagonosticta rhodopareia
INC
INC
Lagonosticta rubricata
INC
INC
Lamprotornis caudatus
INC
INC
Lamprotornis chalcurus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Lamprotornis chalybaeus
INC
INC
Lamprotornis pulcher
INC
INC
Laniarius aethiopicus
INC
INC
Lanius collaris
INC
INC
Lanius excubitoroides
INC
INC
Lanius gubernator
INC
INC
Leptoptilos crumeniferus
INC
INC
Lonchura bicolor
INC
INC
Lonchura fringilloides
INC
INC
Lybius guifsobalito
NO CHANGE
INC
Lybius rolleti
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Macheiramphus alcinus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Malaconotus blanchoti
DEC
DEC
Malimbus nitens
NO CHANGE
INC
Mandingoa nitidula
INC
NO CHANGE
Megabyas flammulatus
INC
NO CHANGE
Melocichla mentalis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Merops hirundineus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Merops nubicus
INC
INC
Merops pusillus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Merops variegatus
INC
INC
Microparra capensis
INC
INC
Mirafra africana
INC
INC
Mirafra albicauda
INC
INC
Mirafra cantillans
INC
INC
Mirafra cordofanica
INC
NO CHANGE
Mirafra rufocinnamomea
NO CHANGE
DEC
Motacilla aguimp
INC
INC
Motacilla clara
INC
INC
Muscicapa caerulescens
INC
INC
Musophaga rossae
INC
NO CHANGE
Myrmecocichla aethiops
INC
INC
Nectarinia adelberti
INC
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia coccinigaster
INC
INC
Nectarinia olivacea
INC
INC
Nectarinia pulchella
INC
INC
Nectarinia venusta
DEC
DEC
Nesocharis capistrata
INC
INC
Nigrita bicolor
INC
INC
Numida meleagris
NO CHANGE
DEC
Oena capensis
INC
INC
Oriolus nigripennis
INC
NO CHANGE
Otus leucotis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Pachycoccyx audeberti
INC
INC
Passer luteus
NO CHANGE
INC
Petronia dentata
INC
INC
Petronia pyrgita
INC
INC
Phalacrocorax africanus
INC
INC
Phoenicopterus roseus
INC
INC
Phyllolais pulchella
INC
INC
Platysteira cyanea
INC
INC
Plegadis falcinellus
INC
INC
Plocepasser superciliosus
NO CHANGE
INC
Ploceus baglafecht
INC
INC
Ploceus bicolor
NO CHANGE
INC
Ploceus nigerrimus
INC
INC
Ploceus nigricollis
INC
INC
Ploceus ocularis
INC
NO CHANGE
Ploceus superciliosus
INC
INC
Poicephalus meyeri
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Poicephalus robustus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Polemaetus bellicosus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Prionops caniceps
INC
INC
Prodotiscus regulus
INC
INC
Psalidoprocne obscura
INC
INC
Psalidoprocne pristoptera
INC
INC
Pseudhirundo griseopyga
DEC
NO CHANGE
Pterocles lichtensteinii
NO CHANGE
INC
Pterocles senegallus
NO CHANGE
INC
Ptilopachus petrosus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Pyrenestes ostrinus
INC
INC
Pyrrhurus scandens
INC
INC
Pytilia hypogrammica
INC
INC
Pytilia melba
INC
INC
Rallus caerulescens
INC
INC
Schoenicola brevirostris
INC
INC
Scotopelia peli
INC
INC
Serinus gularis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Spermophaga haematina
INC
INC
Sporopipes frontalis
INC
INC
Stephanoaetus coronatus
INC
INC
Strix woodfordii
INC
INC
Tauraco leucolophus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Tchagra australis
INC
NO CHANGE
Tchagra minutus
DEC
DEC
Telophorus multicolor
INC
INC
Telophorus sulfureopectus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Terathopius ecaudatus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Thalassornis leuconotus
INC
INC
Thamnolaea cinnamomeiventris
INC
INC
Thripias namaquus
NO CHANGE
INC
Tockus fasciatus
INC
INC
Tockus hartlaubi
INC
NO CHANGE
Trachyphonus purpuratus
INC
INC
Urocolius macrourus
INC
INC
Vanellus crassirostris
INC
INC
Vanellus lugubris
INC
NO CHANGE
Vanellus superciliosus
INC
NO CHANGE
Vanellus tectus
INC
INC
Vidua camerunensis
INC
INC
Vidua raricola
INC
NO CHANGE
Vidua togoensis
INC
INC

The full description of the methodology used for this assessment can be downloaded here: Species Distribution Model

Download the full set of data for Gurin (CSV file).

< Return to Official Record for Gurin