Climate change vulnerability assessments

The boundaries and names shown, and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations or IUCN

Name

Esie

  • WDPA ID

    36783

  • Country

    NGA

  • IUCN category

    Not Reported

Species vulnerable to climate change

According to Traits-based Vulnerability Assessments (TVAs)

Vulnerable Species Total Species
Amphibian
2
24
Bird
34
320
Mammal
3
100
Total
39
444

8 % of bird, amphibian, and mammal species assessed are considered vulnerable to climate change

Expected species turnover

According to Species Distribution Models (SDMs)

Percentage of species turnover: Median (95% Confidence Interval)

by 2010-2039 by 2040-2069
Bird
  • 16.9%
  • 19.8%
  • 22.3%
  • 18.5%
  • 23.3%
  • 30.7%
Mammal
  • 16.5%
  • 19.0%
  • 21.3%
  • 18.1%
  • 23.6%
  • 29.6%
Amphibian
  • 8.0%
  • 11.7%
  • 17.5%
  • 10.5%
  • 18.0%
  • 29.1%

Vulnerable species

Name Order Exposure

by 2010-2039   by 2040-2069

IUCN Red List category Sensitivity

to climate change

Adaptability

to climate change

Caprimulgus europaeus Caprimulgiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Low reproductive capacity
Himantopus himantopus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Lybius vieilloti Piciformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Pelecanus onocrotalus Pelecaniformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Tringa totanus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Apus apus Apodiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Circus macrourus Falconiformes
NT
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Apus pallidus Apodiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Slow turnover of generations
Bucorvus abyssinicus Coraciiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Accipiter erythropus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Ciconia ciconia Ciconiiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Glareola cinerea Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Lymnocryptes minimus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Extrinsic barriers to dispersal
Tringa erythropus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Extrinsic barriers to dispersal
Tachymarptis melba Apodiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Upupa epops Coraciiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Circus aeruginosus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Elminia longicauda Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Cuculus canorus Cuculiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Pernis apivorus Falconiformes
LC
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Telacanthura ussheri Apodiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
Tauraco persa Cuculiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Merops malimbicus Coraciiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Bycanistes fistulator Coraciiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Pteronetta hartlaubii Anseriformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Nicator chloris Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Stiphrornis erythrothorax Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Baeopogon indicator Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Pogoniulus bilineatus Piciformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Nectarinia verticalis Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Fraseria cinerascens Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Glareola nuchalis Charadriiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Corythaeola cristata Cuculiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Dryoscopus senegalensis Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity

The full description of the methodology used for this assessment can be downloaded here: Traits-based Vulnerability Assessments

Expected changes in climate suitability

Name By 2010-2039 By 2040-2069
Chelictinia riocourii
INC
INC
Rhinopomastus aterrimus
INC
INC
Torgos tracheliotos
INC
INC
Falco alopex
INC
INC
Ortyxelos meiffrenii
NO CHANGE
INC
Struthio camelus
INC
INC
Ardeotis arabs
NO CHANGE
INC
Nectarinia chloropygia
INC
INC
Psalidoprocne nitens
INC
INC
Telacanthura ussheri
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Elminia nigromitrata
INC
INC
Bubo poensis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Tricholaema hirsuta
INC
INC
Cossypha cyanocampter
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Prodotiscus insignis
INC
INC
Psittacus erithacus
INC
INC
Trochocercus nitens
NO CHANGE
DEC
Andropadus gracilis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Bostrychia rara
INC
NO CHANGE
Oriolus brachyrhynchus
INC
INC
Stiphrornis erythrothorax
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Andropadus latirostris
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Pogoniulus scolopaceus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Turtur brehmeri
INC
INC
Gymnobucco calvus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Pogoniulus bilineatus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Sylvietta virens
INC
INC
Smithornis rufolateralis
INC
INC
Camaroptera chloronota
INC
INC
Centropus leucogaster
INC
NO CHANGE
Columba iriditorques
INC
INC
Criniger calurus
INC
INC
Pogoniulus atroflavus
INC
INC
Merops gularis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Nectarinia superba
INC
INC
Muscicapa epulata
INC
INC
Muscicapa olivascens
INC
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia minulla
INC
INC
Bubo leucostictus
INC
INC
Neafrapus cassini
INC
INC
Phyllastrephus albigularis
INC
INC
Platysteira castanea
INC
INC
Bias musicus
INC
INC
Dryotriorchis spectabilis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Muscicapa cassini
INC
INC
Myioparus griseigularis
INC
INC
Tauraco macrorhynchus
INC
INC
Pholidornis rushiae
INC
INC
Andropadus ansorgei
INC
INC
Anthreptes rectirostris
INC
INC
Canirallus oculeus
INC
INC
Glareola nuchalis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Illadopsis fulvescens
INC
INC
Muscicapa comitata
INC
INC
Nectarinia johannae
INC
INC
Sylvietta denti
INC
INC
Telacanthura melanopygia
INC
INC
Nectarinia seimundi
INC
INC
Columba unicincta
INC
INC
Illadopsis cleaveri
INC
INC
Nectarinia cyanolaema
INC
INC
Bleda syndactylus
INC
INC
Buccanodon duchaillui
INC
INC
Gymnobucco peli
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Stizorhina fraseri
INC
INC
Dicrurus atripennis
INC
INC
Nectarinia batesi
INC
NO CHANGE
Sheppardia cyornithopsis
INC
INC
Bubo shelleyi
INC
NO CHANGE
Bostrychia olivacea
INC
INC
Nectarinia reichenbachii
INC
NO CHANGE
Lamprotornis splendidus
INC
INC
Corvus ruficollis
INC
INC
Bycanistes albotibialis
INC
INC
Apalis rufogularis
INC
INC
Accipiter castanilius
INC
NO CHANGE
Macrosphenus flavicans
INC
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia bouvieri
INC
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia rubescens
INC
NO CHANGE
Prinia leucopogon
NO CHANGE
INC
Muscicapa sethsmithi
INC
INC
Laniarius luehderi
INC
NO CHANGE
Bleda notatus
INC
NO CHANGE
Baeopogon clamans
INC
NO CHANGE
Tockus camurus
INC
INC
Francolinus lathami
INC
INC
Uromanis tetradactyla
INC
INC
Lybius bidentatus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Phoeniculus castaneiceps
INC
INC
Tockus erythrorhynchus
INC
INC
Accipiter melanoleucus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Accipiter ovampensis
DEC
NO CHANGE
Aenigmatolimnas marginalis
INC
INC
Agapornis pullarius
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Alcedo leucogaster
INC
INC
Alethe castanea
INC
NO CHANGE
Alethe diademata
INC
INC
Alethe poliocephala
INC
INC
Alopochen aegyptiaca
INC
INC
Amadina fasciata
INC
INC
Amandava subflava
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Amblyospiza albifrons
INC
INC
Anaplectes rubriceps
INC
INC
Anas capensis
NO CHANGE
INC
Anas hottentota
INC
INC
Anas sparsa
INC
INC
Anastomus lamelligerus
INC
INC
Andropadus curvirostris
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Andropadus virens
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Anomalospiza imberbis
INC
INC
Anthoscopus flavifrons
INC
NO CHANGE
Anthoscopus parvulus
INC
INC
Anthreptes collaris
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Anthreptes fraseri
INC
INC
Anthreptes platurus
INC
INC
Anthus similis
INC
INC
Apalis jacksoni
INC
NO CHANGE
Apalis nigriceps
INC
INC
Apalis sharpii
INC
INC
Apaloderma narina
DEC
DEC
Aplopelia larvata
INC
INC
Apus horus
NO CHANGE
INC
Aquila africanus
INC
INC
Asio capensis
INC
INC
Aviceda cuculoides
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Balaeniceps rex
INC
INC
Balearica pavonina
INC
INC
Batis occulta
INC
INC
Bradornis pallidus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Bradypterus baboecala
INC
INC
Bubalornis albirostris
NO CHANGE
INC
Buphagus africanus
INC
INC
Burhinus capensis
INC
INC
Burhinus vermiculatus
INC
INC
Butastur rufipennis
NO CHANGE
INC
Bycanistes subcylindricus
INC
INC
Calyptocichla serina
INC
INC
Campephaga quiscalina
NO CHANGE
INC
Campethera abingoni
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Campethera caroli
INC
INC
Campethera maculosa
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Caprimulgus climacurus
INC
NO CHANGE
Caprimulgus inornatus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Caprimulgus natalensis
INC
INC
Caprimulgus nigriscapularis
INC
INC
Caprimulgus tristigma
DEC
DEC
Ceratogymna elata
INC
INC
Cercococcyx mechowi
INC
INC
Cercococcyx olivinus
INC
INC
Cercomela familiaris
NO CHANGE
DEC
Ceuthmochares aereus
INC
INC
Ceyx lecontei
INC
INC
Charadrius marginatus
INC
INC
Chlorocichla flavicollis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Chloropeta natalensis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Chrysococcyx cupreus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Ciconia abdimii
INC
INC
Circaetus cinereus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Cisticola aberrans
INC
INC
Cisticola anonymus
INC
NO CHANGE
Cisticola aridulus
NO CHANGE
INC
Cisticola brachypterus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Cisticola erythrops
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Cisticola guinea
NO CHANGE
INC
Cisticola lateralis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Cisticola ruficeps
INC
INC
Cisticola rufus
INC
INC
Cisticola troglodytes
INC
INC
Clamator jacobinus
INC
INC
Clamator levaillantii
INC
INC
Clytospiza monteiri
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Colius striatus
NO CHANGE
INC
Columba guinea
INC
INC
Coracias naevia
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Coracina azurea
INC
INC
Coracina caesia
INC
NO CHANGE
Coracina pectoralis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Corvus rhipidurus
INC
INC
Cossypha albicapilla
INC
INC
Cossypha natalensis
INC
INC
Cossypha polioptera
INC
INC
Coturnix delegorguei
INC
INC
Crecopsis egregia
NO CHANGE
DEC
Criniger barbatus
INC
INC
Cuculus solitarius
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Cursorius temminckii
DEC
DEC
Dendropicos fuscescens
NO CHANGE
DEC
Dendropicos gabonensis
INC
INC
Drymocichla incana
INC
INC
Dryoscopus sabini
INC
INC
Egretta ardesiaca
INC
INC
Egretta gularis
INC
INC
Emberiza affinis
INC
INC
Emberiza cabanisi
INC
INC
Emberiza flaviventris
INC
NO CHANGE
Emberiza tahapisi
INC
INC
Empidornis semipartitus
NO CHANGE
INC
Ephippiorhynchus senegalensis
INC
INC
Eremomela badiceps
INC
INC
Eremomela icteropygialis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Eremopterix leucotis
INC
INC
Erythrocercus mccallii
INC
INC
Erythropygia leucosticta
INC
INC
Estrilda astrild
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Estrilda caerulescens
INC
INC
Estrilda troglodytes
INC
INC
Euplectes ardens
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Euplectes franciscanus
INC
INC
Eupodotis senegalensis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Eurystomus gularis
INC
INC
Euschistospiza dybowskii
NO CHANGE
INC
Falco ardosiaceus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Falco chicquera
DEC
DEC
Falco cuvierii
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Francolinus albogularis
INC
INC
Francolinus clappertoni
INC
INC
Francolinus coqui
INC
INC
Francolinus icterorhynchus
INC
INC
Francolinus squamatus
INC
INC
Fraseria ocreata
INC
INC
Glaucidium tephronotum
INC
INC
Halcyon badia
INC
INC
Hieraaetus ayresii
INC
INC
Hieraaetus spilogaster
INC
INC
Himantornis haematopus
INC
INC
Hirundo abyssinica
NO CHANGE
DEC
Hirundo fuligula
DEC
DEC
Hirundo lucida
INC
INC
Hirundo nigrita
INC
INC
Hirundo preussi
NO CHANGE
DEC
Hirundo senegalensis
DEC
DEC
Hylia prasina
INC
INC
Hyliota flavigaster
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Hyliota violacea
INC
INC
Illadopsis puveli
INC
INC
Indicator exilis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Jubula lettii
INC
NO CHANGE
Lagonosticta rara
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Lagonosticta rhodopareia
INC
INC
Lagonosticta rubricata
NO CHANGE
DEC
Lamprotornis caudatus
INC
INC
Lamprotornis chalybaeus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Lamprotornis purpureiceps
INC
INC
Laniarius aethiopicus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Laniarius erythrogaster
INC
INC
Laniarius leucorhynchus
INC
INC
Lanius collaris
INC
INC
Lanius gubernator
INC
INC
Leptoptilos crumeniferus
INC
INC
Lonchura cantans
INC
INC
Lonchura cucullata
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Lonchura fringilloides
INC
INC
Macheiramphus alcinus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Macrosphenus concolor
INC
INC
Macrosphenus kempi
INC
INC
Malaconotus cruentus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Malimbus malimbicus
INC
INC
Mandingoa nitidula
INC
INC
Megabyas flammulatus
INC
INC
Melichneutes robustus
INC
INC
Melocichla mentalis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Merops mentalis
INC
INC
Merops nubicus
INC
INC
Merops variegatus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Microparra capensis
INC
INC
Mirafra africana
INC
INC
Mirafra cantillans
INC
INC
Motacilla aguimp
NO CHANGE
DEC
Muscicapa aquatica
INC
INC
Muscicapa caerulescens
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Muscicapa gambagae
INC
INC
Muscicapa infuscata
INC
NO CHANGE
Myrmecocichla nigra
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia coccinigaster
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia preussi
INC
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia pulchella
INC
INC
Neocossyphus poensis
INC
INC
Neotis denhami
INC
INC
Nesocharis capistrata
INC
INC
Nigrita bicolor
INC
INC
Nigrita canicapillus
INC
INC
Nigrita fusconotus
INC
INC
Nigrita luteifrons
INC
INC
Nilaus afer
INC
INC
Numida meleagris
NO CHANGE
DEC
Oena capensis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Oenanthe heuglini
INC
INC
Onychognathus fulgidus
INC
INC
Onychognathus morio
INC
INC
Oriolus auratus
INC
INC
Oriolus nigripennis
INC
INC
Ortygospiza atricollis
INC
INC
Otus leucotis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Pachycoccyx audeberti
INC
INC
Pelecanus rufescens
INC
INC
Petronia dentata
INC
INC
Petronia pyrgita
NO CHANGE
INC
Phalacrocorax africanus
INC
INC
Phoenicopterus roseus
INC
INC
Phoeniculus bollei
INC
INC
Phyllanthus atripennis
INC
INC
Pinarocorys erythropygia
INC
INC
Pitta angolensis
INC
INC
Platysteira blissetti
INC
INC
Plectropterus gambensis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Plocepasser superciliosus
INC
INC
Ploceus albinucha
INC
NO CHANGE
Ploceus aurantius
INC
NO CHANGE
Ploceus luteolus
INC
INC
Ploceus melanocephalus
INC
INC
Ploceus nigerrimus
INC
INC
Ploceus nigricollis
INC
INC
Ploceus pelzelni
INC
NO CHANGE
Ploceus superciliosus
INC
INC
Ploceus tricolor
INC
INC
Ploceus vitellinus
INC
INC
Pluvianus aegyptius
INC
NO CHANGE
Poeoptera lugubris
NO CHANGE
DEC
Poicephalus robustus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Polemaetus bellicosus
INC
INC
Prinia bairdii
NO CHANGE
INC
Prinia subflava
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Prodotiscus regulus
INC
NO CHANGE
Psalidoprocne pristoptera
INC
INC
Pseudhirundo griseopyga
INC
INC
Pterocles lichtensteinii
NO CHANGE
INC
Pterocles quadricinctus
INC
INC
Pytilia hypogrammica
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Pytilia melba
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Pytilia phoenicoptera
INC
INC
Quelea erythrops
INC
INC
Rallus caerulescens
INC
INC
Rhaphidura sabini
INC
INC
Rhinoptilus chalcopterus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Rynchops flavirostris
INC
INC
Sagittarius serpentarius
INC
INC
Sarothrura elegans
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Schoenicola brevirostris
INC
INC
Serinus leucopygius
INC
INC
Serinus mozambicus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Spermophaga haematina
INC
INC
Sporopipes frontalis
INC
INC
Streptopelia decipiens
INC
INC
Streptopelia vinacea
INC
INC
Tchagra australis
INC
INC
Tchagra minutus
DEC
DEC
Telophorus multicolor
INC
INC
Telophorus sulfureopectus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Thalassornis leuconotus
INC
INC
Thamnolaea cinnamomeiventris
INC
INC
Threskiornis aethiopicus
INC
INC
Thripias pyrrhogaster
INC
INC
Tockus fasciatus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Trachyphonus purpuratus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Treron calvus
DEC
DEC
Trigonoceps occipitalis
INC
INC
Turnix hottentottus
INC
NO CHANGE
Turtur abyssinicus
INC
INC
Turtur tympanistria
INC
INC
Urocolius macrourus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Vanellus crassirostris
NO CHANGE
INC
Vanellus lugubris
INC
INC
Vanellus tectus
INC
INC
Vidua camerunensis
INC
INC
Vidua chalybeata
INC
INC
Vidua interjecta
INC
INC
Vidua larvaticola
INC
INC
Vidua paradisaea
INC
INC
Vidua raricola
INC
INC
Vidua togoensis
INC
INC
Zoothera princei
INC
INC
Zosterops senegalensis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE

The full description of the methodology used for this assessment can be downloaded here: Species Distribution Model