Climate change vulnerability assessments

The boundaries and names shown, and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations or IUCN

Name

Suntai

  • WDPA ID

    36893

  • Country

    NGA

  • IUCN category

    Not Reported

Species vulnerable to climate change

According to Traits-based Vulnerability Assessments (TVAs)

Vulnerable Species Total Species
Amphibian
2
21
Bird
36
322
Mammal
3
75
Total
41
418

9 % of bird, amphibian, and mammal species assessed are considered vulnerable to climate change

Expected species turnover

According to Species Distribution Models (SDMs)

Percentage of species turnover: Median (95% Confidence Interval)

by 2010-2039 by 2040-2069
Bird
  • 14.1%
  • 18.0%
  • 37.0%
  • 19.3%
  • 30.0%
  • 42.7%
Mammal
  • 14.5%
  • 17.7%
  • 26.6%
  • 19.6%
  • 27.5%
  • 34.6%
Amphibian
  • 11.2%
  • 19.2%
  • 40.3%
  • 22.4%
  • 39.7%
  • 53.5%

Vulnerable species

Name Order Exposure

by 2010-2039   by 2040-2069

IUCN Red List category Sensitivity

to climate change

Adaptability

to climate change

Caprimulgus europaeus Caprimulgiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Low reproductive capacity
Falco peregrinus Falconiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Low genetic diversity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Himantopus himantopus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Lybius vieilloti Piciformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Pelecanus onocrotalus Pelecaniformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Tringa totanus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Rhinopomastus aterrimus Coraciiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Apus apus Apodiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Circus macrourus Falconiformes
NT
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Falco alopex Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
Falco subbuteo Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Apus pallidus Apodiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Slow turnover of generations
Bucorvus abyssinicus Coraciiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Accipiter erythropus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Glareola cinerea Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Hieraaetus pennatus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Lymnocryptes minimus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Extrinsic barriers to dispersal
Tringa erythropus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Extrinsic barriers to dispersal
Tachymarptis melba Apodiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Upupa epops Coraciiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Circus aeruginosus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Elminia longicauda Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Cuculus canorus Cuculiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Pernis apivorus Falconiformes
LC
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Telacanthura ussheri Apodiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
Tauraco persa Cuculiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Pteronetta hartlaubii Anseriformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Prodotiscus insignis Piciformes
LC
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Stiphrornis erythrothorax Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Chlorocichla simplex Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Pogoniulus bilineatus Piciformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Sarothrura pulchra Gruiformes
LC
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Nectarinia verticalis Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Glareola nuchalis Charadriiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Bleda syndactylus Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Scotopelia bouvieri Strigiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity

The full description of the methodology used for this assessment can be downloaded here: Traits-based Vulnerability Assessments

Expected changes in climate suitability

Name By 2010-2039 By 2040-2069
Lybius vieilloti
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Chelictinia riocourii
INC
INC
Rhinopomastus aterrimus
INC
INC
Torgos tracheliotos
INC
INC
Ortyxelos meiffrenii
NO CHANGE
INC
Bucorvus abyssinicus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Circaetus beaudouini
INC
INC
Lybius leucocephalus
INC
INC
Struthio camelus
INC
INC
Ardeotis arabs
INC
INC
Streptopelia roseogrisea
NO CHANGE
INC
Psalidoprocne nitens
INC
NO CHANGE
Telacanthura ussheri
DEC
DEC
Bubo poensis
DEC
DEC
Bycanistes fistulator
INC
INC
Pteronetta hartlaubii
DEC
DEC
Tricholaema hirsuta
NO CHANGE
DEC
Cossypha cyanocampter
INC
NO CHANGE
Nicator chloris
INC
INC
Prodotiscus insignis
DEC
DEC
Andropadus gracilis
INC
NO CHANGE
Stiphrornis erythrothorax
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Andropadus latirostris
INC
NO CHANGE
Baeopogon indicator
INC
NO CHANGE
Chlorocichla simplex
DEC
DEC
Pogoniulus scolopaceus
INC
INC
Turtur brehmeri
INC
NO CHANGE
Gymnobucco calvus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Pogoniulus bilineatus
DEC
DEC
Sylvietta virens
INC
INC
Sarothrura pulchra
NO CHANGE
DEC
Centropus leucogaster
NO CHANGE
INC
Columba iriditorques
INC
INC
Criniger calurus
INC
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia verticalis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Pogoniulus atroflavus
INC
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia superba
INC
INC
Fraseria cinerascens
INC
INC
Phyllastrephus albigularis
INC
NO CHANGE
Platysteira castanea
INC
NO CHANGE
Muscicapa cassini
INC
NO CHANGE
Anthreptes rectirostris
INC
NO CHANGE
Glareola nuchalis
DEC
DEC
Illadopsis fulvescens
INC
INC
Muscicapa comitata
INC
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia johannae
INC
NO CHANGE
Sylvietta denti
INC
INC
Nectarinia seimundi
INC
NO CHANGE
Thescelocichla leucopleura
INC
INC
Corythaeola cristata
INC
NO CHANGE
Buccanodon duchaillui
INC
NO CHANGE
Ixonotus guttatus
INC
NO CHANGE
Lamprotornis splendidus
INC
INC
Corvus ruficollis
NO CHANGE
INC
Tachymarptis aequatorialis
INC
NO CHANGE
Bycanistes albotibialis
INC
INC
Dryoscopus senegalensis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Gyps rueppellii
INC
INC
Tockus nasutus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Lybius bidentatus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Lybius dubius
NO CHANGE
DEC
Tigriornis leucolopha
INC
INC
Tockus erythrorhynchus
INC
INC
Accipiter melanoleucus
INC
INC
Accipiter ovampensis
INC
INC
Acrocephalus gracilirostris
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Aenigmatolimnas marginalis
INC
INC
Agapornis pullarius
NO CHANGE
DEC
Alethe diademata
INC
INC
Alethe poliocephala
INC
NO CHANGE
Amadina fasciata
NO CHANGE
INC
Amandava subflava
NO CHANGE
DEC
Amblyospiza albifrons
INC
INC
Anas hottentota
INC
INC
Andropadus gracilirostris
INC
INC
Andropadus virens
DEC
DEC
Anomalospiza imberbis
INC
INC
Anthoscopus parvulus
INC
INC
Anthoscopus punctifrons
INC
INC
Anthreptes collaris
DEC
DEC
Anthreptes fraseri
INC
NO CHANGE
Anthreptes gabonicus
INC
INC
Anthreptes longuemarei
DEC
DEC
Anthreptes platurus
INC
INC
Anthus leucophrys
DEC
DEC
Anthus similis
DEC
DEC
Apalis flavida
INC
INC
Apalis sharpii
INC
NO CHANGE
Aplopelia larvata
INC
NO CHANGE
Apus caffer
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Aquila rapax
INC
INC
Asio capensis
INC
INC
Aviceda cuculoides
DEC
DEC
Balaeniceps rex
INC
INC
Balearica pavonina
INC
INC
Batis erlangeri
INC
INC
Batis senegalensis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Bleda canicapillus
INC
INC
Bradornis pallidus
DEC
NO CHANGE
Bradypterus baboecala
INC
INC
Bubalornis albirostris
INC
INC
Burhinus capensis
NO CHANGE
INC
Burhinus senegalensis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Butastur rufipennis
INC
INC
Bycanistes subcylindricus
INC
NO CHANGE
Camaroptera brachyura
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Camaroptera superciliaris
NO CHANGE
DEC
Campephaga phoenicea
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Campethera abingoni
INC
INC
Campethera punctuligera
NO CHANGE
DEC
Caprimulgus inornatus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Caprimulgus natalensis
INC
INC
Caprimulgus nigriscapularis
INC
NO CHANGE
Caprimulgus tristigma
INC
INC
Centropus grillii
INC
NO CHANGE
Centropus monachus
INC
INC
Ceratogymna elata
INC
NO CHANGE
Cercomela familiaris
DEC
DEC
Charadrius forbesi
NO CHANGE
DEC
Chlorocichla flavicollis
DEC
NO CHANGE
Chloropeta natalensis
INC
NO CHANGE
Chrysococcyx cupreus
DEC
DEC
Circaetus cinereus
DEC
DEC
Cisticola aberrans
INC
INC
Cisticola aridulus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Cisticola brachypterus
DEC
DEC
Cisticola cantans
DEC
DEC
Cisticola erythrops
DEC
DEC
Cisticola guinea
INC
INC
Cisticola lateralis
INC
INC
Cisticola natalensis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Cisticola ruficeps
INC
INC
Cisticola rufus
INC
INC
Cisticola troglodytes
INC
INC
Clamator glandarius
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Clamator jacobinus
INC
INC
Clytospiza monteiri
INC
NO CHANGE
Columba guinea
INC
INC
Coracias abyssinicus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Coracias cyanogaster
INC
INC
Coracias naevia
DEC
DEC
Coracina pectoralis
DEC
DEC
Corvinella corvina
NO CHANGE
DEC
Corvus rhipidurus
INC
INC
Cossypha albicapilla
INC
INC
Cossypha heuglini
NO CHANGE
INC
Cossypha natalensis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Cossypha niveicapilla
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Cossypha polioptera
DEC
DEC
Coturnix delegorguei
INC
INC
Crecopsis egregia
DEC
DEC
Cuculus clamosus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Cuculus gularis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Cuculus solitarius
DEC
DEC
Cursorius temminckii
DEC
DEC
Dendropicos fuscescens
DEC
DEC
Dendropicos gabonensis
INC
NO CHANGE
Dendropicos poecilolaemus
INC
NO CHANGE
Dicrurus ludwigii
DEC
DEC
Drymocichla incana
INC
INC
Dryoscopus gambensis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Egretta ardesiaca
INC
INC
Egretta gularis
INC
INC
Emberiza affinis
INC
INC
Emberiza cabanisi
DEC
DEC
Emberiza flaviventris
INC
NO CHANGE
Empidornis semipartitus
INC
NO CHANGE
Ephippiorhynchus senegalensis
INC
INC
Eremomela icteropygialis
INC
INC
Eremomela pusilla
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Eremopterix leucotis
INC
INC
Erythrocercus mccallii
INC
NO CHANGE
Erythropygia galactotes
NO CHANGE
INC
Erythropygia leucosticta
INC
NO CHANGE
Estrilda astrild
INC
INC
Estrilda troglodytes
INC
INC
Euplectes afer
INC
INC
Euplectes axillaris
INC
INC
Euplectes franciscanus
INC
INC
Euplectes hordeaceus
INC
INC
Euplectes macroura
INC
INC
Eupodotis senegalensis
NO CHANGE
INC
Eurystomus gularis
INC
NO CHANGE
Euschistospiza dybowskii
DEC
DEC
Falco ardosiaceus
DEC
DEC
Falco chicquera
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Falco cuvierii
DEC
DEC
Francolinus ahantensis
INC
INC
Francolinus albogularis
INC
INC
Francolinus clappertoni
INC
INC
Francolinus coqui
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Francolinus icterorhynchus
INC
NO CHANGE
Francolinus squamatus
INC
NO CHANGE
Guttera pucherani
INC
NO CHANGE
Gyps africanus
INC
INC
Halcyon chelicuti
DEC
DEC
Halcyon malimbica
NO CHANGE
DEC
Heliolais erythropterus
DEC
DEC
Hieraaetus ayresii
INC
INC
Hirundo abyssinica
DEC
NO CHANGE
Hirundo fuligula
INC
INC
Hirundo leucosoma
INC
INC
Hirundo lucida
INC
INC
Hirundo nigrita
INC
INC
Hirundo preussi
INC
INC
Hirundo senegalensis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Hyliota flavigaster
DEC
NO CHANGE
Hyliota violacea
INC
NO CHANGE
Illadopsis puveli
INC
INC
Indicator exilis
DEC
DEC
Indicator indicator
DEC
DEC
Indicator maculatus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Indicator minor
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Jynx ruficollis
INC
NO CHANGE
Lagonosticta larvata
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Lagonosticta rara
DEC
DEC
Lagonosticta rhodopareia
INC
INC
Lagonosticta rubricata
DEC
DEC
Lamprotornis caudatus
INC
INC
Lamprotornis chalcurus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Lamprotornis chalybaeus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Lamprotornis chloropterus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Lamprotornis purpureus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Laniarius aethiopicus
DEC
DEC
Laniarius barbarus
INC
INC
Laniarius erythrogaster
INC
INC
Lanius collaris
NO CHANGE
INC
Lanius excubitoroides
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Lanius gubernator
INC
INC
Leptoptilos crumeniferus
INC
INC
Lonchura bicolor
INC
INC
Lonchura cantans
INC
INC
Lonchura cucullata
DEC
DEC
Lonchura fringilloides
INC
NO CHANGE
Macheiramphus alcinus
DEC
DEC
Macrodipteryx longipennis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Macrosphenus concolor
INC
NO CHANGE
Malaconotus blanchoti
DEC
DEC
Malaconotus cruentus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Malimbus nitens
INC
INC
Malimbus scutatus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Mandingoa nitidula
INC
NO CHANGE
Melaenornis edolioides
DEC
DEC
Melierax gabar
INC
INC
Melierax metabates
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Melocichla mentalis
DEC
DEC
Merops hirundineus
DEC
DEC
Merops nubicus
INC
NO CHANGE
Merops pusillus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Merops variegatus
INC
INC
Mesopicos goertae
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Microparra capensis
INC
INC
Mirafra africana
NO CHANGE
INC
Mirafra cantillans
INC
NO CHANGE
Motacilla clara
INC
NO CHANGE
Muscicapa caerulescens
DEC
NO CHANGE
Muscicapa gambagae
INC
INC
Musophaga rossae
INC
NO CHANGE
Myioparus plumbeus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Myrmecocichla aethiops
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Myrmecocichla albifrons
NO CHANGE
DEC
Myrmecocichla nigra
INC
INC
Nectarinia adelberti
INC
INC
Nectarinia coccinigaster
NO CHANGE
DEC
Nectarinia olivacea
INC
INC
Nectarinia pulchella
INC
INC
Nectarinia venusta
DEC
DEC
Neocossyphus poensis
INC
NO CHANGE
Neotis denhami
INC
INC
Nesocharis capistrata
INC
NO CHANGE
Nigrita bicolor
INC
INC
Numida meleagris
NO CHANGE
DEC
Oena capensis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Onychognathus fulgidus
INC
NO CHANGE
Onychognathus morio
DEC
DEC
Oriolus auratus
INC
INC
Oriolus nigripennis
INC
NO CHANGE
Ortygospiza atricollis
INC
INC
Otus leucotis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Otus senegalensis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Pachycoccyx audeberti
INC
INC
Pelecanus rufescens
INC
INC
Petronia pyrgita
NO CHANGE
INC
Phalacrocorax africanus
INC
INC
Phoenicopterus roseus
INC
INC
Phoeniculus purpureus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Phyllanthus atripennis
INC
INC
Phyllolais pulchella
NO CHANGE
INC
Platysteira blissetti
INC
NO CHANGE
Plectropterus gambensis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Plegadis falcinellus
INC
INC
Ploceus baglafecht
INC
NO CHANGE
Ploceus bicolor
NO CHANGE
INC
Ploceus heuglini
NO CHANGE
DEC
Ploceus luteolus
INC
INC
Ploceus melanocephalus
INC
INC
Ploceus nigerrimus
INC
INC
Ploceus nigricollis
INC
INC
Ploceus ocularis
DEC
NO CHANGE
Ploceus superciliosus
INC
INC
Ploceus vitellinus
NO CHANGE
INC
Poicephalus robustus
NO CHANGE
INC
Poicephalus senegalus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Prinia subflava
NO CHANGE
DEC
Prionops caniceps
INC
INC
Prodotiscus regulus
INC
NO CHANGE
Psalidoprocne pristoptera
INC
INC
Pterocles lichtensteinii
NO CHANGE
INC
Pterocles quadricinctus
INC
INC
Ptilopachus petrosus
DEC
DEC
Ptilostomus afer
NO CHANGE
DEC
Pyrenestes ostrinus
INC
INC
Pyrrhurus scandens
NO CHANGE
DEC
Pytilia hypogrammica
DEC
DEC
Pytilia melba
NO CHANGE
INC
Pytilia phoenicoptera
INC
INC
Quelea erythrops
INC
INC
Quelea quelea
INC
INC
Rynchops flavirostris
INC
INC
Sarothrura elegans
INC
NO CHANGE
Schoenicola brevirostris
INC
INC
Scotopelia peli
INC
INC
Serinus gularis
DEC
DEC
Serinus leucopygius
INC
INC
Serinus mozambicus
DEC
DEC
Spermophaga haematina
INC
INC
Sporopipes frontalis
INC
INC
Stephanoaetus coronatus
INC
INC
Streptopelia decipiens
INC
INC
Streptopelia vinacea
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Sylvietta brachyura
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Tchagra australis
DEC
DEC
Tchagra minutus
DEC
DEC
Tchagra senegalus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Telophorus multicolor
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Telophorus sulfureopectus
DEC
DEC
Terathopius ecaudatus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Thalassornis leuconotus
INC
INC
Thamnolaea cinnamomeiventris
INC
INC
Thripias pyrrhogaster
INC
NO CHANGE
Tockus fasciatus
DEC
DEC
Tockus hartlaubi
DEC
DEC
Trachyphonus purpuratus
DEC
DEC
Treron calvus
DEC
DEC
Trigonoceps occipitalis
INC
INC
Turdoides plebejus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Turdoides reinwardii
NO CHANGE
DEC
Turtur abyssinicus
INC
INC
Turtur tympanistria
DEC
DEC
Uraeginthus bengalus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Urocolius macrourus
NO CHANGE
INC
Vanellus crassirostris
INC
INC
Vanellus lugubris
INC
NO CHANGE
Vanellus spinosus
INC
INC
Vanellus superciliosus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Vanellus tectus
INC
INC
Vidua chalybeata
INC
INC
Vidua interjecta
NO CHANGE
DEC
Vidua larvaticola
INC
INC
Vidua paradisaea
INC
INC
Vidua togoensis
INC
INC
Vidua wilsoni
NO CHANGE
DEC
Zoothera princei
INC
NO CHANGE
Zosterops senegalensis
NO CHANGE
DEC

The full description of the methodology used for this assessment can be downloaded here: Species Distribution Model