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Climate change vulnerability assessments

The boundaries and names shown, and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations or IUCN

Name

Manda

  • WDPA ID

    642

  • Country

    TCD

  • IUCN category

    II

Species vulnerable to climate change

According to Traits-based Vulnerability Assessments (TVAs)

Vulnerable Species Total Species
Amphibian
2
24
Bird
30
308
Mammal
8
90
Total
40
422

9 % of bird, amphibian, and mammal species assessed are considered vulnerable to climate change

Expected species turnover

According to Species Distribution Models (SDMs)

Percentage of species turnover: Median (95% Confidence Interval)

by 2010-2039 by 2040-2069
Bird
  • 8.4%
  • 11.9%
  • 16.9%
  • 14.9%
  • 20.2%
  • 30.0%
Mammal
  • 6.5%
  • 10.0%
  • 16.4%
  • 11.6%
  • 20.4%
  • 30.5%
Amphibian
  • 1.8%
  • 7.4%
  • 14.9%
  • 6.2%
  • 22.9%
  • 46.2%

Vulnerable species

Name Order Exposure

by 2010-2039   by 2040-2069

 IUCN Red List category Sensitivity

to climate change

 Adaptability

to climate change
Falco peregrinus Falconiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Low genetic diversity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Himantopus himantopus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Lybius vieilloti Piciformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Pelecanus onocrotalus Pelecaniformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Tringa totanus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Rhinopomastus aterrimus Coraciiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Apus apus Apodiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Circus macrourus Falconiformes
NT
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Falco alopex Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
Falco subbuteo Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Anas acuta Anseriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Apus pallidus Apodiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Slow turnover of generations
Bucorvus abyssinicus Coraciiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Circus pygargus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Hieraaetus pennatus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Lymnocryptes minimus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Extrinsic barriers to dispersal
Tringa erythropus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Extrinsic barriers to dispersal
Circaetus gallicus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Upupa epops Coraciiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Circaetus beaudouini Falconiformes
VU
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Circus aeruginosus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Lybius leucocephalus Piciformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Struthio camelus Struthioniformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Accipiter nisus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Recurvirostra avosetta Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Streptopelia roseogrisea Columbiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Cuculus canorus Cuculiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Nectarinia chloropygia Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Gyps fulvus Falconiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Pernis apivorus Falconiformes
LC
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity

The full description of the methodology used for this assessment can be downloaded here: Traits-based Vulnerability Assessments

Expected changes in climate suitability

Name By 2010-2039 By 2040-2069
Lybius vieilloti
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Chelictinia riocourii
INC
INC
Rhinopomastus aterrimus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Torgos tracheliotos
INC
INC
Falco alopex
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Ortyxelos meiffrenii
INC
INC
Bucorvus abyssinicus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Accipiter erythropus
INC
INC
Glareola cinerea
INC
INC
Elminia longicauda
INC
INC
Lybius leucocephalus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Ardeotis arabs
INC
INC
Tauraco persa
INC
NO CHANGE
Campethera nivosa
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Cossypha cyanocampter
INC
INC
Sylvietta virens
INC
INC
Camaroptera chloronota
NO CHANGE
INC
Nectarinia verticalis
INC
INC
Nectarinia superba
INC
NO CHANGE
Fraseria cinerascens
INC
INC
Glareola nuchalis
INC
INC
Illadopsis fulvescens
INC
INC
Sylvietta denti
INC
INC
Lamprotornis splendidus
INC
INC
Corvus ruficollis
INC
INC
Cursorius cursor
INC
NO CHANGE
Scotopelia bouvieri
INC
NO CHANGE
Aquila verreauxii
INC
INC
Lybius bidentatus
INC
INC
Lybius dubius
INC
INC
Tigriornis leucolopha
INC
INC
Accipiter melanoleucus
INC
INC
Accipiter tachiro
INC
INC
Acrocephalus gracilirostris
NO CHANGE
INC
Acrocephalus rufescens
INC
INC
Aenigmatolimnas marginalis
INC
INC
Alaemon alaudipes
INC
NO CHANGE
Alcedo leucogaster
INC
NO CHANGE
Amadina fasciata
INC
INC
Amandava subflava
INC
INC
Ammomanes deserti
INC
INC
Anaplectes rubriceps
DEC
DEC
Anas capensis
INC
INC
Anas hottentota
INC
INC
Anas sparsa
INC
INC
Andropadus gracilirostris
INC
INC
Andropadus virens
INC
NO CHANGE
Anomalospiza imberbis
INC
NO CHANGE
Anthreptes collaris
NO CHANGE
INC
Anthreptes longuemarei
INC
INC
Anthreptes platurus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Anthus leucophrys
INC
INC
Anthus similis
INC
INC
Apalis flavida
INC
INC
Aplopelia larvata
INC
INC
Apus caffer
DEC
DEC
Aquila rapax
DEC
DEC
Ardea melanocephala
NO CHANGE
DEC
Asio capensis
INC
INC
Aviceda cuculoides
INC
INC
Balaeniceps rex
INC
INC
Batis erlangeri
INC
INC
Batis senegalensis
INC
INC
Bleda canicapillus
INC
INC
Bubalornis albirostris
INC
INC
Bubo africanus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Burhinus capensis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Burhinus senegalensis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Buteo auguralis
INC
INC
Campethera abingoni
INC
NO CHANGE
Campethera cailliautii
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Caprimulgus climacurus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Caprimulgus inornatus
INC
INC
Caprimulgus natalensis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Caprimulgus nigriscapularis
INC
NO CHANGE
Caprimulgus tristigma
INC
INC
Centropus grillii
INC
INC
Centropus monachus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Cercomela familiaris
INC
NO CHANGE
Cercomela scotocerca
NO CHANGE
INC
Cercotrichas podobe
INC
NO CHANGE
Charadrius forbesi
INC
INC
Charadrius marginatus
NO CHANGE
INC
Charadrius pecuarius
DEC
DEC
Chlorocichla flavicollis
INC
INC
Chrysococcyx cupreus
INC
INC
Ciconia abdimii
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Circaetus cinerascens
DEC
DEC
Circaetus cinereus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Cisticola aberrans
INC
INC
Cisticola aridulus
INC
INC
Cisticola brachypterus
INC
INC
Cisticola cantans
INC
NO CHANGE
Cisticola erythrops
INC
INC
Cisticola eximius
NO CHANGE
INC
Cisticola guinea
INC
INC
Cisticola lateralis
INC
INC
Cisticola natalensis
INC
INC
Cisticola robustus
INC
INC
Cisticola ruficeps
INC
INC
Clamator glandarius
NO CHANGE
DEC
Colius striatus
INC
INC
Columba guinea
NO CHANGE
DEC
Coracias abyssinicus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Coracias cyanogaster
INC
INC
Coracias naevia
INC
INC
Coracina pectoralis
INC
INC
Corvus rhipidurus
INC
INC
Cossypha albicapilla
INC
INC
Cossypha natalensis
INC
NO CHANGE
Cossypha niveicapilla
INC
INC
Coturnix delegorguei
INC
INC
Crinifer zonurus
INC
NO CHANGE
Cuculus clamosus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Cuculus solitarius
INC
INC
Cypsiurus parvus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Dendrocopos obsoletus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Dendropicos fuscescens
NO CHANGE
INC
Dicrurus ludwigii
INC
INC
Dryoscopus gambensis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Egretta ardesiaca
INC
INC
Egretta gularis
INC
INC
Emberiza cabanisi
INC
INC
Emberiza flaviventris
INC
INC
Emberiza striolata
INC
NO CHANGE
Emberiza tahapisi
INC
INC
Eremomela icteropygialis
INC
INC
Eremopterix nigriceps
INC
INC
Erythropygia galactotes
INC
INC
Estrilda astrild
INC
INC
Estrilda melpoda
INC
INC
Euplectes afer
INC
INC
Euplectes ardens
INC
INC
Euplectes axillaris
NO CHANGE
INC
Euplectes franciscanus
INC
INC
Euplectes hordeaceus
INC
INC
Euplectes macroura
INC
INC
Eupodotis senegalensis
NO CHANGE
INC
Euschistospiza dybowskii
INC
NO CHANGE
Falco ardosiaceus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Falco biarmicus
DEC
DEC
Falco chicquera
NO CHANGE
DEC
Francolinus ahantensis
INC
NO CHANGE
Francolinus albogularis
INC
INC
Francolinus bicalcaratus
INC
INC
Francolinus coqui
INC
INC
Gallinula angulata
INC
INC
Gorsachius leuconotus
INC
INC
Halcyon chelicuti
NO CHANGE
DEC
Heliolais erythropterus
INC
INC
Hieraaetus spilogaster
DEC
DEC
Hippolais pallida
INC
INC
Hirundo abyssinica
INC
INC
Hirundo fuligula
NO CHANGE
DEC
Hirundo leucosoma
INC
INC
Hirundo lucida
INC
INC
Hirundo preussi
INC
INC
Hirundo semirufa
INC
INC
Hirundo senegalensis
DEC
NO CHANGE
Hylia prasina
INC
INC
Hypergerus atriceps
INC
INC
Indicator exilis
INC
NO CHANGE
Indicator indicator
DEC
DEC
Indicator maculatus
INC
INC
Indicator willcocksi
INC
NO CHANGE
Lagonosticta larvata
INC
NO CHANGE
Lagonosticta rara
INC
INC
Lagonosticta rhodopareia
INC
NO CHANGE
Lagonosticta rubricata
INC
NO CHANGE
Lagonosticta senegala
NO CHANGE
DEC
Lamprotornis chalcurus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Lamprotornis chalybaeus
INC
INC
Lamprotornis pulcher
INC
INC
Laniarius aethiopicus
INC
INC
Laniarius barbarus
INC
INC
Lanius collaris
INC
INC
Lanius gubernator
INC
INC
Lonchura cantans
INC
INC
Lonchura fringilloides
INC
INC
Lybius guifsobalito
NO CHANGE
INC
Macheiramphus alcinus
INC
NO CHANGE
Malaconotus blanchoti
INC
INC
Melierax gabar
NO CHANGE
DEC
Melierax metabates
NO CHANGE
DEC
Merops hirundineus
DEC
DEC
Merops nubicus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Merops pusillus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Merops variegatus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Mesopicos goertae
NO CHANGE
DEC
Microparra capensis
INC
INC
Mirafra africana
INC
INC
Mirafra albicauda
INC
INC
Mirafra cantillans
INC
INC
Mirafra rufocinnamomea
INC
INC
Motacilla aguimp
INC
INC
Muscicapa aquatica
INC
NO CHANGE
Muscicapa caerulescens
INC
NO CHANGE
Musophaga violacea
INC
INC
Myioparus plumbeus
INC
NO CHANGE
Myrmecocichla aethiops
INC
INC
Myrmecocichla albifrons
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Myrmecocichla nigra
INC
INC
Necrosyrtes monachus
DEC
DEC
Nectarinia coccinigaster
INC
INC
Nectarinia cuprea
INC
INC
Nectarinia olivacea
INC
INC
Nectarinia pulchella
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia venusta
INC
INC
Neotis denhami
NO CHANGE
DEC
Nesocharis capistrata
INC
NO CHANGE
Nigrita bicolor
INC
INC
Nilaus afer
NO CHANGE
DEC
Numida meleagris
DEC
DEC
Oena capensis
INC
INC
Oenanthe heuglini
NO CHANGE
DEC
Onychognathus morio
INC
INC
Ortygospiza atricollis
NO CHANGE
INC
Otus leucotis
DEC
DEC
Otus senegalensis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Passer luteus
INC
NO CHANGE
Petronia pyrgita
INC
INC
Phoenicopterus roseus
INC
INC
Phyllolais pulchella
INC
INC
Platalea alba
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Plegadis falcinellus
DEC
DEC
Plocepasser superciliosus
INC
NO CHANGE
Ploceus heuglini
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Ploceus luteolus
INC
INC
Ploceus nigerrimus
NO CHANGE
INC
Ploceus nigricollis
INC
INC
Ploceus vitellinus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Pogoniulus chrysoconus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Polemaetus bellicosus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Prionops caniceps
INC
NO CHANGE
Prodotiscus regulus
INC
INC
Psalidoprocne obscura
INC
INC
Psalidoprocne pristoptera
INC
INC
Pseudhirundo griseopyga
INC
INC
Pterocles lichtensteinii
INC
INC
Pterocles quadricinctus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Ptilopachus petrosus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Ptilostomus afer
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Pyrenestes ostrinus
INC
INC
Pyrrhurus scandens
INC
INC
Pytilia melba
INC
INC
Pytilia phoenicoptera
INC
INC
Quelea erythrops
INC
INC
Scotopelia peli
INC
INC
Serinus gularis
INC
INC
Sporopipes frontalis
INC
INC
Stephanoaetus coronatus
INC
INC
Streptopelia vinacea
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Strix woodfordii
INC
INC
Sylvietta brachyura
NO CHANGE
DEC
Tchagra senegalus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Telophorus multicolor
INC
INC
Telophorus sulfureopectus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Terathopius ecaudatus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Thalassornis leuconotus
INC
INC
Thripias namaquus
INC
NO CHANGE
Tockus fasciatus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Treron calvus
INC
INC
Turdoides plebejus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Turdoides reinwardii
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Uraeginthus bengalus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Urocolius macrourus
INC
INC
Vanellus crassirostris
INC
INC
Vanellus spinosus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Vidua camerunensis
INC
INC
Vidua chalybeata
NO CHANGE
DEC
Vidua interjecta
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Vidua paradisaea
INC
INC
Vidua togoensis
INC
INC
Vidua wilsoni
INC
INC

The full description of the methodology used for this assessment can be downloaded here: Species Distribution Model

Download the full set of data for Manda (CSV file).

< Return to Official Record for Manda