Climate change vulnerability assessments

The boundaries and names shown, and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations or IUCN

Name

Mole

  • WDPA ID

    669

  • Country

    GHA

  • IUCN category

    II

Species vulnerable to climate change

According to Traits-based Vulnerability Assessments (TVAs)

Vulnerable Species Total Species
Amphibian
4
30
Bird
34
372
Mammal
9
126
Total
47
528

8 % of bird, amphibian, and mammal species assessed are considered vulnerable to climate change

Expected species turnover

According to Species Distribution Models (SDMs)

Percentage of species turnover: Median (95% Confidence Interval)

by 2010-2039 by 2040-2069
Bird
  • 9.4%
  • 12.7%
  • 29.8%
  • 13.4%
  • 22.0%
  • 35.0%
Mammal
  • 7.4%
  • 11.9%
  • 24.1%
  • 13.4%
  • 23.4%
  • 30.8%
Amphibian
  • 8.2%
  • 13.6%
  • 41.0%
  • 13.4%
  • 31.9%
  • 46.5%

Vulnerable species

Name Order Exposure

by 2010-2039   by 2040-2069

IUCN Red List category Sensitivity

to climate change

Adaptability

to climate change

Caprimulgus europaeus Caprimulgiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Low reproductive capacity
Falco peregrinus Falconiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Low genetic diversity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Himantopus himantopus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Lybius vieilloti Piciformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity´┐╝
  • Slow turnover of generations
Pelecanus onocrotalus Pelecaniformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Tringa totanus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Chelictinia riocourii Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
Ciconia nigra Ciconiiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Rhinopomastus aterrimus Coraciiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Apus apus Apodiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Circus macrourus Falconiformes
NT
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Falco alopex Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
Falco subbuteo Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Apus pallidus Apodiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Slow turnover of generations
Bucorvus abyssinicus Coraciiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity´┐╝
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Accipiter erythropus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Ciconia ciconia Ciconiiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Circus pygargus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Glareola cinerea Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Hieraaetus pennatus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Lymnocryptes minimus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Extrinsic barriers to dispersal
Tringa erythropus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Extrinsic barriers to dispersal
Tachymarptis melba Apodiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Upupa epops Coraciiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Circus aeruginosus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Neophron percnopterus Falconiformes
EN
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Elminia longicauda Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Cuculus canorus Cuculiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Pernis apivorus Falconiformes
LC
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Psalidoprocne nitens Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Telacanthura ussheri Apodiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
Tauraco persa Cuculiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Elminia nigromitrata Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Merops malimbicus Coraciiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity

The full description of the methodology used for this assessment can be downloaded here: Traits-based Vulnerability Assessments

Expected changes in climate suitability

Name By 2010-2039 By 2040-2069
Lybius vieilloti
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Chelictinia riocourii
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Torgos tracheliotos
INC
INC
Ortyxelos meiffrenii
INC
INC
Circaetus beaudouini
INC
INC
Struthio camelus
INC
INC
Ardeotis arabs
INC
INC
Streptopelia roseogrisea
INC
INC
Nectarinia chloropygia
INC
INC
Psalidoprocne nitens
DEC
DEC
Telacanthura ussheri
DEC
DEC
Bubo poensis
INC
NO CHANGE
Bycanistes fistulator
INC
INC
Pogoniulus subsulphureus
INC
NO CHANGE
Pteronetta hartlaubii
DEC
DEC
Tricholaema hirsuta
INC
INC
Campethera nivosa
INC
INC
Cossypha cyanocampter
INC
INC
Nicator chloris
INC
NO CHANGE
Psittacus erithacus
INC
NO CHANGE
Andropadus gracilis
INC
INC
Oriolus brachyrhynchus
INC
INC
Andropadus latirostris
INC
NO CHANGE
Baeopogon indicator
INC
NO CHANGE
Turtur brehmeri
INC
NO CHANGE
Pogoniulus bilineatus
INC
NO CHANGE
Sylvietta virens
INC
INC
Sarothrura pulchra
INC
INC
Smithornis rufolateralis
INC
NO CHANGE
Camaroptera chloronota
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Centropus leucogaster
INC
INC
Columba iriditorques
INC
INC
Criniger calurus
INC
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia verticalis
INC
INC
Pogoniulus atroflavus
INC
NO CHANGE
Phyllastrephus icterinus
INC
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia superba
INC
INC
Fraseria cinerascens
INC
INC
Phyllastrephus albigularis
INC
NO CHANGE
Platysteira castanea
INC
NO CHANGE
Bias musicus
INC
NO CHANGE
Muscicapa cassini
INC
NO CHANGE
Anthreptes rectirostris
INC
INC
Glareola nuchalis
INC
INC
Illadopsis fulvescens
INC
INC
Muscicapa comitata
INC
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia johannae
INC
INC
Sylvietta denti
INC
INC
Nectarinia seimundi
INC
NO CHANGE
Thescelocichla leucopleura
INC
INC
Corythaeola cristata
INC
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia cyanolaema
INC
NO CHANGE
Buccanodon duchaillui
INC
NO CHANGE
Ixonotus guttatus
INC
INC
Lamprotornis splendidus
INC
INC
Corvus ruficollis
INC
INC
Cursorius cursor
INC
NO CHANGE
Tachymarptis aequatorialis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Bycanistes albotibialis
INC
INC
Apalis rufogularis
INC
NO CHANGE
Scotopelia bouvieri
INC
INC
Nectarinia rubescens
INC
NO CHANGE
Gyps rueppellii
INC
INC
Francolinus lathami
INC
NO CHANGE
Lybius bidentatus
INC
INC
Phoeniculus castaneiceps
INC
NO CHANGE
Accipiter ovampensis
DEC
DEC
Accipiter tachiro
INC
INC
Acrocephalus rufescens
INC
NO CHANGE
Aenigmatolimnas marginalis
INC
INC
Agapornis pullarius
NO CHANGE
DEC
Alaemon alaudipes
INC
NO CHANGE
Alcedo leucogaster
INC
INC
Alethe diademata
INC
INC
Alethe poliocephala
INC
INC
Amadina fasciata
INC
INC
Amandava subflava
INC
INC
Amblyospiza albifrons
INC
INC
Ammomanes deserti
INC
INC
Anas capensis
INC
INC
Anas hottentota
INC
INC
Anas sparsa
INC
INC
Anastomus lamelligerus
INC
INC
Andropadus gracilirostris
INC
INC
Anhinga rufa
INC
INC
Anomalospiza imberbis
INC
INC
Anthoscopus punctifrons
INC
INC
Anthreptes collaris
INC
INC
Anthreptes longuemarei
DEC
DEC
Anthreptes platurus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Anthus leucophrys
DEC
DEC
Anthus similis
INC
INC
Apalis flavida
DEC
DEC
Apalis sharpii
INC
NO CHANGE
Apaloderma narina
INC
INC
Aplopelia larvata
INC
INC
Apus caffer
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Ardea melanocephala
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Asio capensis
INC
INC
Aviceda cuculoides
DEC
DEC
Balaeniceps rex
INC
INC
Balearica pavonina
INC
INC
Bradornis pallidus
DEC
NO CHANGE
Bubalornis albirostris
INC
INC
Burhinus senegalensis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Burhinus vermiculatus
INC
NO CHANGE
Butastur rufipennis
INC
INC
Bycanistes subcylindricus
INC
NO CHANGE
Camaroptera superciliaris
INC
NO CHANGE
Campethera abingoni
INC
INC
Campethera cailliautii
INC
INC
Campethera maculosa
INC
INC
Campethera punctuligera
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Caprimulgus inornatus
NO CHANGE
INC
Caprimulgus natalensis
NO CHANGE
INC
Caprimulgus nigriscapularis
NO CHANGE
INC
Caprimulgus tristigma
DEC
DEC
Centropus grillii
NO CHANGE
INC
Centropus monachus
INC
INC
Cercococcyx mechowi
INC
NO CHANGE
Cercomela familiaris
DEC
DEC
Cercotrichas podobe
INC
INC
Ceuthmochares aereus
INC
INC
Ceyx lecontei
INC
NO CHANGE
Charadrius forbesi
NO CHANGE
DEC
Charadrius marginatus
INC
INC
Charadrius pecuarius
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Chlorocichla flavicollis
DEC
NO CHANGE
Chrysococcyx cupreus
DEC
DEC
Circaetus cinerascens
DEC
DEC
Circaetus cinereus
DEC
DEC
Cisticola aberrans
DEC
DEC
Cisticola aridulus
INC
INC
Cisticola brachypterus
DEC
DEC
Cisticola cantans
DEC
DEC
Cisticola erythrops
DEC
DEC
Cisticola eximius
INC
INC
Cisticola galactotes
INC
INC
Cisticola guinea
NO CHANGE
DEC
Cisticola lateralis
DEC
DEC
Cisticola natalensis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Cisticola ruficeps
NO CHANGE
INC
Cisticola troglodytes
NO CHANGE
INC
Clamator glandarius
NO CHANGE
DEC
Clamator jacobinus
INC
INC
Columba guinea
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Coracias abyssinicus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Coracias cyanogaster
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Coracias naevia
DEC
DEC
Coracina azurea
INC
NO CHANGE
Coracina pectoralis
DEC
DEC
Corvinella corvina
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Corvus rhipidurus
INC
INC
Cossypha albicapilla
NO CHANGE
DEC
Cossypha natalensis
INC
INC
Coturnix delegorguei
INC
INC
Crecopsis egregia
DEC
NO CHANGE
Criniger barbatus
INC
NO CHANGE
Cuculus clamosus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Cuculus gularis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Cuculus solitarius
DEC
DEC
Cursorius temminckii
DEC
NO CHANGE
Dendropicos fuscescens
DEC
DEC
Dicrurus ludwigii
DEC
DEC
Drymocichla incana
NO CHANGE
INC
Dryoscopus gambensis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Egretta ardesiaca
INC
INC
Egretta gularis
INC
INC
Elminia albiventris
INC
NO CHANGE
Emberiza cabanisi
DEC
DEC
Emberiza flaviventris
INC
INC
Emberiza striolata
INC
INC
Ephippiorhynchus senegalensis
INC
INC
Eremomela pusilla
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Eremopterix nigriceps
INC
INC
Erythrocercus mccallii
INC
NO CHANGE
Erythropygia galactotes
INC
INC
Erythropygia leucosticta
INC
NO CHANGE
Estrilda astrild
INC
INC
Estrilda troglodytes
INC
INC
Euplectes ardens
INC
INC
Euplectes franciscanus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Euplectes macroura
NO CHANGE
DEC
Eurystomus gularis
INC
INC
Falco ardosiaceus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Falco chicquera
NO CHANGE
DEC
Falco cuvierii
DEC
DEC
Francolinus clappertoni
INC
INC
Francolinus coqui
INC
INC
Francolinus squamatus
INC
NO CHANGE
Guttera pucherani
INC
NO CHANGE
Halcyon chelicuti
DEC
DEC
Heliolais erythropterus
DEC
DEC
Hieraaetus ayresii
INC
INC
Hippolais pallida
INC
INC
Hirundo abyssinica
DEC
NO CHANGE
Hirundo aethiopica
INC
INC
Hirundo fuligula
DEC
DEC
Hirundo leucosoma
DEC
DEC
Hirundo nigrita
INC
NO CHANGE
Hirundo senegalensis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Hyliota flavigaster
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Hyliota violacea
INC
INC
Illadopsis puveli
INC
INC
Indicator exilis
INC
INC
Indicator indicator
DEC
DEC
Indicator minor
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Indicator willcocksi
INC
INC
Lagonosticta rara
DEC
DEC
Lagonosticta rhodopareia
INC
INC
Lagonosticta rubricata
DEC
DEC
Lagonosticta senegala
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Lamprotornis caudatus
INC
INC
Lamprotornis chalcurus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Lamprotornis chalybaeus
INC
INC
Lamprotornis chloropterus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Lamprotornis pulcher
INC
INC
Laniarius erythrogaster
NO CHANGE
INC
Laniarius leucorhynchus
INC
NO CHANGE
Lanius collaris
INC
INC
Lanius gubernator
INC
INC
Lonchura bicolor
INC
INC
Lonchura cucullata
DEC
DEC
Lonchura fringilloides
INC
INC
Macheiramphus alcinus
DEC
DEC
Macrodipteryx longipennis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Malaconotus blanchoti
DEC
DEC
Malimbus nitens
INC
INC
Malimbus rubricollis
INC
NO CHANGE
Malimbus scutatus
INC
NO CHANGE
Mandingoa nitidula
INC
NO CHANGE
Megabyas flammulatus
INC
INC
Melaenornis edolioides
NO CHANGE
DEC
Melichneutes robustus
INC
NO CHANGE
Melierax gabar
NO CHANGE
DEC
Melocichla mentalis
DEC
DEC
Merops hirundineus
DEC
DEC
Merops nubicus
INC
NO CHANGE
Merops pusillus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Mesopicos goertae
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Microparra capensis
INC
INC
Mirafra africana
INC
INC
Mirafra albicauda
NO CHANGE
INC
Mirafra cantillans
INC
INC
Mirafra rufocinnamomea
DEC
DEC
Motacilla aguimp
DEC
DEC
Motacilla clara
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Muscicapa caerulescens
INC
INC
Myioparus plumbeus
DEC
DEC
Myrmecocichla aethiops
NO CHANGE
INC
Myrmecocichla albifrons
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Necrosyrtes monachus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia adelberti
INC
INC
Nectarinia coccinigaster
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Nectarinia olivacea
INC
INC
Nectarinia venusta
INC
INC
Neocossyphus poensis
INC
NO CHANGE
Nesocharis capistrata
DEC
DEC
Nigrita fusconotus
INC
INC
Nilaus afer
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Numida meleagris
DEC
DEC
Oena capensis
INC
INC
Oenanthe heuglini
INC
INC
Onychognathus fulgidus
INC
NO CHANGE
Onychognathus morio
INC
INC
Oriolus nigripennis
INC
NO CHANGE
Ortygospiza atricollis
INC
INC
Otus leucotis
DEC
DEC
Otus senegalensis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Pachycoccyx audeberti
INC
INC
Parus funereus
INC
NO CHANGE
Pelecanus rufescens
INC
INC
Petronia pyrgita
INC
INC
Phalacrocorax africanus
INC
INC
Phoenicopterus roseus
INC
INC
Phoeniculus bollei
INC
NO CHANGE
Phyllanthus atripennis
INC
INC
Pinarocorys erythropygia
INC
INC
Platysteira blissetti
INC
NO CHANGE
Plectropterus gambensis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Ploceus melanocephalus
INC
INC
Ploceus nigerrimus
INC
INC
Ploceus superciliosus
INC
INC
Prinia subflava
NO CHANGE
DEC
Prodotiscus regulus
NO CHANGE
INC
Psalidoprocne obscura
INC
INC
Psalidoprocne pristoptera
INC
INC
Pterocles lichtensteinii
INC
INC
Pterocles quadricinctus
INC
INC
Ptilopachus petrosus
DEC
DEC
Ptilostomus afer
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Pyrenestes ostrinus
INC
INC
Pyrenestes sanguineus
INC
INC
Pyrrhurus scandens
INC
NO CHANGE
Pytilia hypogrammica
DEC
DEC
Pytilia melba
INC
INC
Quelea quelea
NO CHANGE
INC
Rallus caerulescens
INC
NO CHANGE
Rhinoptilus chalcopterus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Sagittarius serpentarius
INC
INC
Schoenicola brevirostris
INC
INC
Scotopelia peli
INC
INC
Serinus gularis
DEC
DEC
Serinus leucopygius
INC
INC
Serinus mozambicus
DEC
DEC
Spermophaga haematina
INC
INC
Sporopipes frontalis
INC
INC
Stephanoaetus coronatus
INC
INC
Stigmatopelia senegalensis
INC
INC
Streptopelia decipiens
INC
INC
Strix woodfordii
INC
INC
Sylvietta brachyura
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Tchagra australis
INC
NO CHANGE
Tchagra senegalus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Telophorus multicolor
INC
NO CHANGE
Telophorus sulfureopectus
DEC
DEC
Terathopius ecaudatus
DEC
DEC
Thalassornis leuconotus
INC
INC
Thripias pyrrhogaster
DEC
DEC
Tockus fasciatus
DEC
DEC
Tockus hartlaubi
INC
NO CHANGE
Trachyphonus purpuratus
INC
INC
Treron calvus
DEC
DEC
Tropicranus albocristatus
INC
NO CHANGE
Turdoides plebejus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Turdoides reinwardii
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Turtur abyssinicus
INC
INC
Turtur tympanistria
INC
INC
Uraeginthus bengalus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Urocolius macrourus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Vanellus crassirostris
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Vanellus lugubris
INC
INC
Vanellus superciliosus
INC
NO CHANGE
Vanellus tectus
INC
INC
Vidua chalybeata
INC
INC
Vidua interjecta
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Vidua paradisaea
INC
INC
Vidua raricola
INC
NO CHANGE
Vidua togoensis
DEC
DEC
Vidua wilsoni
NO CHANGE
DEC
Zoothera princei
INC
NO CHANGE
Zosterops senegalensis
NO CHANGE
DEC

The full description of the methodology used for this assessment can be downloaded here: Species Distribution Model