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Climate change vulnerability assessments

The boundaries and names shown, and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations or IUCN

Name

Pai River

  • WDPA ID

    7856

  • Country

    NGA

  • IUCN category

    Not Reported

Species vulnerable to climate change

According to Traits-based Vulnerability Assessments (TVAs)

Vulnerable Species Total Species
Amphibian
3
29
Bird
31
350
Mammal
4
99
Total
38
478

7 % of bird, amphibian, and mammal species assessed are considered vulnerable to climate change

Expected species turnover

According to Species Distribution Models (SDMs)

Percentage of species turnover: Median (95% Confidence Interval)

by 2010-2039 by 2040-2069
Bird
  • 12.3%
  • 15.3%
  • 28.7%
  • 18.4%
  • 29.8%
  • 39.3%
Mammal
  • 10.3%
  • 15.9%
  • 23.5%
  • 16.1%
  • 29.6%
  • 46.1%
Amphibian
  • 14.3%
  • 25.4%
  • 41.9%
  • 21.0%
  • 42.1%
  • 68.0%

Vulnerable species

Name Order Exposure

by 2010-2039   by 2040-2069

 IUCN Red List category Sensitivity

to climate change

 Adaptability

to climate change
Caprimulgus europaeus Caprimulgiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Low reproductive capacity
Falco peregrinus Falconiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Low genetic diversity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Himantopus himantopus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Lybius vieilloti Piciformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
Pelecanus onocrotalus Pelecaniformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Tringa totanus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Rhinopomastus aterrimus Coraciiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Apus apus Apodiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Circus macrourus Falconiformes
NT
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Falco alopex Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
Falco subbuteo Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Anas acuta Anseriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Apus pallidus Apodiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Slow turnover of generations
Bucorvus abyssinicus Coraciiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low intrinsic dispersal capacity
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Ciconia ciconia Ciconiiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Circus pygargus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Glareola cinerea Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Hieraaetus pennatus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Lymnocryptes minimus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Extrinsic barriers to dispersal
Tringa erythropus Charadriiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Extrinsic barriers to dispersal
Circaetus gallicus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Tachymarptis melba Apodiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Upupa epops Coraciiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Circaetus beaudouini Falconiformes
VU
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Circus aeruginosus Falconiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
Neophron percnopterus Falconiformes
EN
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Cuculus canorus Cuculiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Pernis apivorus Falconiformes
LC
  • Intolerance of disturbance
  • Low Tolerance to temperature changes
  • Slow turnover of generations
  • Low reproductive capacity
Telacanthura ussheri Apodiformes
LC
  • Microhabitat specialisation
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Slow turnover of generations
Tauraco persa Cuculiformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity
Nectarinia verticalis Passeriformes
LC
  • Low Tolerance to changes in precipitation regimes
  • Small population size
  • Small effective population size
  • Low reproductive capacity

The full description of the methodology used for this assessment can be downloaded here: Traits-based Vulnerability Assessments

Expected changes in climate suitability

Name By 2010-2039 By 2040-2069
Lybius vieilloti
NO CHANGE
DEC
Chelictinia riocourii
INC
INC
Rhinopomastus aterrimus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Torgos tracheliotos
INC
INC
Falco alopex
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Ortyxelos meiffrenii
INC
INC
Bucorvus abyssinicus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Accipiter erythropus
INC
INC
Elminia longicauda
INC
INC
Lybius leucocephalus
INC
INC
Struthio camelus
INC
INC
Ardeotis arabs
INC
INC
Streptopelia roseogrisea
INC
INC
Nectarinia chloropygia
INC
INC
Telacanthura ussheri
DEC
NO CHANGE
Bycanistes fistulator
INC
NO CHANGE
Campethera nivosa
INC
INC
Nicator chloris
INC
INC
Pogoniulus bilineatus
DEC
DEC
Sarothrura pulchra
INC
NO CHANGE
Camaroptera chloronota
INC
INC
Nectarinia superba
NO CHANGE
INC
Fraseria cinerascens
INC
INC
Glareola nuchalis
INC
INC
Illadopsis fulvescens
INC
INC
Thescelocichla leucopleura
INC
NO CHANGE
Corvus ruficollis
INC
INC
Scotopelia bouvieri
DEC
NO CHANGE
Pseudoalcippe abyssinica
INC
NO CHANGE
Tockus nasutus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Lybius bidentatus
INC
INC
Tigriornis leucolopha
INC
INC
Accipiter melanoleucus
INC
INC
Accipiter ovampensis
DEC
NO CHANGE
Accipiter tachiro
INC
INC
Acrocephalus gracilirostris
INC
INC
Aenigmatolimnas marginalis
INC
INC
Alaemon alaudipes
INC
NO CHANGE
Alcedo leucogaster
NO CHANGE
INC
Alethe diademata
INC
NO CHANGE
Amadina fasciata
INC
INC
Amandava subflava
INC
INC
Ammomanes deserti
INC
INC
Anaplectes rubriceps
DEC
NO CHANGE
Anas capensis
INC
INC
Anas hottentota
INC
INC
Anas sparsa
INC
INC
Andropadus gracilirostris
INC
INC
Andropadus virens
INC
NO CHANGE
Anomalospiza imberbis
INC
INC
Anthoscopus punctifrons
INC
INC
Anthreptes collaris
INC
INC
Anthreptes gabonicus
INC
INC
Anthreptes longuemarei
NO CHANGE
DEC
Anthreptes platurus
INC
INC
Anthus leucophrys
DEC
DEC
Anthus similis
INC
INC
Apalis flavida
DEC
DEC
Apus caffer
DEC
DEC
Apus horus
INC
NO CHANGE
Aquila wahlbergi
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Ardea melanocephala
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Aviceda cuculoides
DEC
NO CHANGE
Balaeniceps rex
INC
INC
Balearica pavonina
INC
INC
Batis erlangeri
INC
INC
Bleda canicapillus
INC
NO CHANGE
Bradypterus baboecala
INC
INC
Bubalornis albirostris
INC
INC
Bubo africanus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Burhinus senegalensis
NO CHANGE
DEC
Butastur rufipennis
INC
INC
Camaroptera brachyura
NO CHANGE
DEC
Campethera abingoni
NO CHANGE
INC
Campethera cailliautii
INC
INC
Caprimulgus inornatus
NO CHANGE
INC
Caprimulgus natalensis
INC
INC
Caprimulgus nigriscapularis
INC
NO CHANGE
Caprimulgus tristigma
DEC
DEC
Centropus monachus
INC
INC
Ceratogymna elata
INC
NO CHANGE
Cercomela familiaris
DEC
DEC
Cercotrichas podobe
INC
NO CHANGE
Charadrius forbesi
DEC
NO CHANGE
Charadrius marginatus
INC
INC
Charadrius pecuarius
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Chloropeta natalensis
INC
NO CHANGE
Chrysococcyx cupreus
DEC
DEC
Chrysococcyx klaas
NO CHANGE
DEC
Circaetus cinereus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Cisticola aberrans
INC
INC
Cisticola aridulus
INC
INC
Cisticola brachypterus
INC
INC
Cisticola cantans
DEC
DEC
Cisticola guinea
INC
NO CHANGE
Cisticola lateralis
INC
INC
Cisticola ruficeps
INC
INC
Cisticola troglodytes
INC
INC
Clamator glandarius
DEC
DEC
Colius striatus
INC
INC
Columba guinea
DEC
DEC
Coracias abyssinicus
DEC
DEC
Coracias naevia
DEC
DEC
Coracina pectoralis
DEC
DEC
Corvus rhipidurus
INC
INC
Cossypha albicapilla
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Cossypha heuglini
NO CHANGE
INC
Cossypha natalensis
INC
INC
Coturnix delegorguei
INC
INC
Crecopsis egregia
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Cuculus clamosus
DEC
DEC
Cuculus gularis
DEC
NO CHANGE
Cuculus solitarius
DEC
NO CHANGE
Cypsiurus parvus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Dendrocopos obsoletus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Dendropicos fuscescens
DEC
NO CHANGE
Egretta ardesiaca
INC
INC
Egretta gularis
INC
INC
Emberiza cabanisi
INC
INC
Emberiza flaviventris
INC
INC
Emberiza striolata
INC
INC
Eremomela icteropygialis
INC
INC
Eremomela pusilla
NO CHANGE
DEC
Eremopterix nigriceps
NO CHANGE
INC
Erythropygia galactotes
INC
INC
Estrilda astrild
INC
INC
Estrilda troglodytes
INC
INC
Euplectes ardens
INC
INC
Euplectes axillaris
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Eupodotis senegalensis
INC
INC
Euschistospiza dybowskii
INC
NO CHANGE
Falco biarmicus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Falco chicquera
NO CHANGE
DEC
Falco cuvierii
DEC
DEC
Francolinus ahantensis
INC
NO CHANGE
Francolinus clappertoni
INC
INC
Francolinus coqui
INC
INC
Glaucidium perlatum
NO CHANGE
DEC
Gypohierax angolensis
INC
INC
Halcyon chelicuti
NO CHANGE
DEC
Heliolais erythropterus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Hieraaetus ayresii
INC
INC
Hieraaetus spilogaster
NO CHANGE
DEC
Hippolais pallida
INC
NO CHANGE
Hirundo fuligula
DEC
DEC
Hirundo lucida
INC
INC
Hirundo preussi
INC
INC
Hirundo senegalensis
DEC
DEC
Hylia prasina
INC
INC
Illadopsis puveli
INC
NO CHANGE
Indicator exilis
INC
NO CHANGE
Indicator indicator
DEC
DEC
Indicator minor
NO CHANGE
DEC
Lagonosticta rara
DEC
NO CHANGE
Lagonosticta rhodopareia
INC
NO CHANGE
Lagonosticta rubricata
INC
NO CHANGE
Lagonosticta senegala
NO CHANGE
DEC
Lamprotornis caudatus
INC
INC
Lamprotornis chalcurus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Lamprotornis chalybaeus
INC
INC
Lamprotornis pulcher
INC
INC
Laniarius erythrogaster
INC
INC
Lanius collaris
INC
INC
Lanius gubernator
INC
NO CHANGE
Leptoptilos crumeniferus
INC
INC
Lonchura bicolor
INC
INC
Lonchura cantans
DEC
DEC
Lonchura cucullata
NO CHANGE
DEC
Lonchura fringilloides
INC
INC
Macheiramphus alcinus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Malaconotus blanchoti
DEC
DEC
Malimbus nitens
INC
NO CHANGE
Melaenornis edolioides
DEC
DEC
Melierax gabar
NO CHANGE
DEC
Melierax metabates
NO CHANGE
DEC
Merops hirundineus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Merops nubicus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Merops pusillus
DEC
DEC
Merops variegatus
INC
INC
Mesopicos goertae
NO CHANGE
DEC
Microparra capensis
INC
INC
Mirafra africana
INC
INC
Mirafra albicauda
INC
INC
Mirafra cantillans
INC
INC
Motacilla clara
INC
INC
Muscicapa caerulescens
INC
NO CHANGE
Muscicapa gambagae
INC
INC
Myioparus plumbeus
DEC
DEC
Myrmecocichla nigra
INC
INC
Necrosyrtes monachus
DEC
DEC
Nectarinia coccinigaster
INC
INC
Nectarinia olivacea
INC
INC
Nectarinia pulchella
NO CHANGE
DEC
Nectarinia venusta
INC
INC
Neotis denhami
NO CHANGE
DEC
Nesocharis capistrata
DEC
DEC
Nigrita bicolor
INC
NO CHANGE
Nilaus afer
NO CHANGE
DEC
Numida meleagris
DEC
DEC
Oena capensis
INC
INC
Oenanthe heuglini
INC
INC
Onychognathus morio
INC
INC
Otus leucotis
DEC
DEC
Passer luteus
INC
NO CHANGE
Petronia pyrgita
INC
INC
Phoenicopterus roseus
INC
INC
Phoeniculus purpureus
DEC
DEC
Phyllolais pulchella
INC
INC
Platalea alba
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Platysteira cyanea
INC
INC
Plectropterus gambensis
DEC
DEC
Plegadis falcinellus
INC
INC
Ploceus baglafecht
INC
NO CHANGE
Ploceus luteolus
INC
INC
Ploceus nigerrimus
INC
INC
Ploceus superciliosus
INC
INC
Ploceus vitellinus
INC
INC
Pogoniulus chrysoconus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Poicephalus robustus
INC
INC
Polemaetus bellicosus
DEC
DEC
Prinia subflava
NO CHANGE
DEC
Prionops caniceps
INC
INC
Prodotiscus regulus
INC
INC
Psalidoprocne obscura
INC
INC
Psalidoprocne pristoptera
INC
INC
Pterocles lichtensteinii
INC
INC
Pterocles quadricinctus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Ptilopachus petrosus
DEC
DEC
Ptilostomus afer
DEC
DEC
Pytilia hypogrammica
INC
NO CHANGE
Pytilia melba
INC
INC
Quelea quelea
INC
INC
Sagittarius serpentarius
DEC
DEC
Schoenicola brevirostris
INC
NO CHANGE
Scotopelia peli
INC
INC
Serinus gularis
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Serinus leucopygius
INC
INC
Serinus mozambicus
DEC
DEC
Spermophaga haematina
INC
INC
Sporopipes frontalis
INC
INC
Stephanoaetus coronatus
INC
INC
Streptopelia vinacea
NO CHANGE
DEC
Strix woodfordii
INC
INC
Sylvietta brachyura
NO CHANGE
DEC
Tauraco leucolophus
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Tchagra minutus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Tchagra senegalus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Telophorus sulfureopectus
DEC
DEC
Thalassornis leuconotus
INC
INC
Thamnolaea cinnamomeiventris
DEC
DEC
Tockus fasciatus
INC
INC
Treron calvus
DEC
NO CHANGE
Turdoides plebejus
DEC
DEC
Uraeginthus bengalus
NO CHANGE
DEC
Urocolius macrourus
INC
INC
Vanellus crassirostris
INC
INC
Vanellus lugubris
INC
NO CHANGE
Vanellus tectus
INC
INC
Vidua camerunensis
INC
INC
Vidua chalybeata
NO CHANGE
DEC
Vidua paradisaea
NO CHANGE
DEC
Vidua wilsoni
NO CHANGE
NO CHANGE
Zosterops senegalensis
DEC
DEC

The full description of the methodology used for this assessment can be downloaded here: Species Distribution Model

Download the full set of data for Pai River (CSV file).

< Return to Official Record for Pai River