Climate change vulnerability assessments
Species vulnerable to climate change
According to Traits-based Vulnerability Assessments (TVAs)
| Vulnerable Species | Total Species | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Amphibian |
4
|
28
|
|
| Bird |
32
|
359
|
|
| Mammal |
3
|
105
|
|
| Total | 39 |
492 |
7 % of bird, amphibian, and mammal species assessed are considered vulnerable to climate change
Expected species turnover
According to Species Distribution Models (SDMs)
Percentage of species turnover: Median (95% Confidence Interval)
| by 2010-2039 | by 2040-2069 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Bird |
|
|
|
| Mammal |
|
|
|
| Amphibian |
|
|
Vulnerable species
| Name | Order | Exposure by 2010-2039 by 2040-2069 | IUCN Red List category | Sensitivity to climate change | Adaptability to climate change |
|---|
Name | Order | Exposure by 2010-2039 by 2040-2069 | IUCN Red List category | Sensitivity to climate change | Adaptability to climate change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accipiter erythropus | Falconiformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Anas acuta | Anseriformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Apus apus | Apodiformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Apus pallidus | Apodiformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Bucorvus abyssinicus | Coraciiformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Caprimulgus europaeus | Caprimulgiformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Chelictinia riocourii | Falconiformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Ciconia ciconia | Ciconiiformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Ciconia nigra | Ciconiiformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Circus aeruginosus | Falconiformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Circus macrourus | Falconiformes |
|
NT |
|
|
| Circus pygargus | Falconiformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Elminia longicauda | Passeriformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Falco alopex | Falconiformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Falco peregrinus | Falconiformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Falco subbuteo | Falconiformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Glareola cinerea | Charadriiformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Hieraaetus pennatus | Falconiformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Himantopus himantopus | Charadriiformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Lybius vieilloti | Piciformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Lymnocryptes minimus | Charadriiformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Merops malimbicus | Coraciiformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Neophron percnopterus | Falconiformes |
|
EN |
|
|
| Pelecanus onocrotalus | Pelecaniformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Pernis apivorus | Falconiformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Rhinopomastus aterrimus | Coraciiformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Tachymarptis melba | Apodiformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Tauraco persa | Cuculiformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Telacanthura ussheri | Apodiformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Tringa erythropus | Charadriiformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Tringa totanus | Charadriiformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Upupa epops | Coraciiformes |
|
LC |
|
|
| Name |
|---|
| Accipiter erythropus |
| Anas acuta |
| Apus apus |
| Apus pallidus |
| Bucorvus abyssinicus |
| Caprimulgus europaeus |
| Chelictinia riocourii |
| Ciconia ciconia |
| Ciconia nigra |
| Circus aeruginosus |
| Circus macrourus |
| Circus pygargus |
| Elminia longicauda |
| Falco alopex |
| Falco peregrinus |
| Falco subbuteo |
| Glareola cinerea |
| Hieraaetus pennatus |
| Himantopus himantopus |
| Lybius vieilloti |
| Lymnocryptes minimus |
| Merops malimbicus |
| Neophron percnopterus |
| Pelecanus onocrotalus |
| Pernis apivorus |
| Rhinopomastus aterrimus |
| Tachymarptis melba |
| Tauraco persa |
| Telacanthura ussheri |
| Tringa erythropus |
| Tringa totanus |
| Upupa epops |
The full description of the methodology used for this assessment can be downloaded here: Traits-based Vulnerability Assessments
Expected changes in climate suitability
| Name | By 2010-2039 | By 2040-2069 |
|---|
Name | By 2010-2039 | By 2040-2069 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Accipiter melanoleucus | INC |
INC |
|
| Accipiter ovampensis | DEC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Accipiter tachiro | INC |
INC |
|
| Acrocephalus rufescens | INC |
INC |
|
| Aenigmatolimnas marginalis | INC |
INC |
|
| Alaemon alaudipes | INC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Alcedo leucogaster | NO CHANGE |
INC |
|
| Alcedo quadribrachys | INC |
INC |
|
| Alethe diademata | INC |
INC |
|
| Alethe poliocephala | INC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Amadina fasciata | INC |
INC |
|
| Amblyospiza albifrons | INC |
INC |
|
| Ammomanes deserti | INC |
INC |
|
| Anas capensis | INC |
INC |
|
| Anas hottentota | INC |
INC |
|
| Anas sparsa | INC |
INC |
|
| Anastomus lamelligerus | INC |
INC |
|
| Andropadus gracilirostris | INC |
INC |
|
| Andropadus gracilis | INC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Andropadus latirostris | INC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Andropadus virens | INC |
INC |
|
| Anomalospiza imberbis | INC |
INC |
|
| Anthoscopus punctifrons | INC |
INC |
|
| Anthreptes collaris | INC |
INC |
|
| Anthreptes fraseri | INC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Anthreptes gabonicus | INC |
INC |
|
| Anthreptes platurus | NO CHANGE |
DEC |
|
| Anthus leucophrys | DEC |
DEC |
|
| Anthus similis | INC |
INC |
|
| Apaloderma narina | INC |
INC |
|
| Apus caffer | NO CHANGE |
DEC |
|
| Aquila rapax | NO CHANGE |
DEC |
|
| Aquila wahlbergi | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Ardea melanocephala | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Ardeotis arabs | INC |
INC |
|
| Asio capensis | INC |
INC |
|
| Aviceda cuculoides | DEC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Baeopogon indicator | INC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Balaeniceps rex | INC |
INC |
|
| Batis senegalensis | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Bleda canicapillus | INC |
INC |
|
| Bubalornis albirostris | INC |
INC |
|
| Bubo africanus | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Bubo poensis | INC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Bucorvus abyssinicus | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Buphagus africanus | INC |
INC |
|
| Burhinus senegalensis | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Burhinus vermiculatus | INC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Butastur rufipennis | INC |
INC |
|
| Bycanistes albotibialis | INC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Bycanistes fistulator | INC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Bycanistes subcylindricus | INC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Camaroptera chloronota | INC |
INC |
|
| Campethera abingoni | INC |
INC |
|
| Campethera maculosa | INC |
INC |
|
| Campethera nivosa | INC |
INC |
|
| Caprimulgus climacurus | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Caprimulgus inornatus | INC |
INC |
|
| Caprimulgus natalensis | NO CHANGE |
INC |
|
| Caprimulgus nigriscapularis | INC |
INC |
|
| Caprimulgus tristigma | DEC |
DEC |
|
| Centropus monachus | INC |
INC |
|
| Ceratogymna elata | INC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Cercomela familiaris | DEC |
DEC |
|
| Cercotrichas podobe | INC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Ceuthmochares aereus | INC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Charadrius forbesi | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Charadrius marginatus | INC |
INC |
|
| Charadrius pecuarius | NO CHANGE |
DEC |
|
| Chelictinia riocourii | DEC |
DEC |
|
| Chlorocichla simplex | INC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Chrysococcyx cupreus | DEC |
DEC |
|
| Ciconia abdimii | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Circaetus beaudouini | INC |
INC |
|
| Circaetus cinerascens | DEC |
DEC |
|
| Circaetus cinereus | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Cisticola aberrans | INC |
INC |
|
| Cisticola aridulus | INC |
INC |
|
| Cisticola brachypterus | NO CHANGE |
DEC |
|
| Cisticola cantans | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Cisticola eximius | NO CHANGE |
DEC |
|
| Cisticola guinea | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Cisticola lateralis | INC |
INC |
|
| Cisticola ruficeps | INC |
INC |
|
| Cisticola troglodytes | NO CHANGE |
INC |
|
| Clamator glandarius | NO CHANGE |
DEC |
|
| Clamator jacobinus | INC |
INC |
|
| Columba guinea | NO CHANGE |
DEC |
|
| Columba iriditorques | INC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Coracias abyssinicus | NO CHANGE |
DEC |
|
| Coracias naevia | DEC |
DEC |
|
| Coracina pectoralis | DEC |
DEC |
|
| Corvinella corvina | NO CHANGE |
DEC |
|
| Corvus rhipidurus | INC |
INC |
|
| Corvus ruficollis | INC |
INC |
|
| Cossypha albicapilla | DEC |
DEC |
|
| Cossypha cyanocampter | INC |
INC |
|
| Cossypha natalensis | INC |
INC |
|
| Coturnix delegorguei | INC |
INC |
|
| Cuculus clamosus | NO CHANGE |
DEC |
|
| Cuculus gularis | NO CHANGE |
DEC |
|
| Cypsiurus parvus | NO CHANGE |
DEC |
|
| Dendrocopos obsoletus | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Drymocichla incana | INC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Dryoscopus gambensis | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Egretta ardesiaca | INC |
INC |
|
| Egretta gularis | INC |
INC |
|
| Emberiza flaviventris | INC |
INC |
|
| Emberiza striolata | INC |
INC |
|
| Ephippiorhynchus senegalensis | INC |
INC |
|
| Eremomela icteropygialis | INC |
INC |
|
| Eremomela pusilla | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Eremopterix nigriceps | INC |
INC |
|
| Erythrocercus mccallii | INC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Erythropygia galactotes | INC |
INC |
|
| Estrilda astrild | NO CHANGE |
INC |
|
| Euplectes ardens | NO CHANGE |
INC |
|
| Euplectes axillaris | NO CHANGE |
INC |
|
| Euplectes franciscanus | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Eurystomus gularis | INC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Falco alopex | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Falco biarmicus | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Falco chicquera | DEC |
DEC |
|
| Falco cuvierii | NO CHANGE |
DEC |
|
| Francolinus ahantensis | INC |
INC |
|
| Francolinus clappertoni | INC |
INC |
|
| Francolinus coqui | INC |
INC |
|
| Fraseria cinerascens | INC |
INC |
|
| Glareola nuchalis | INC |
INC |
|
| Guttera pucherani | INC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Halcyon chelicuti | DEC |
DEC |
|
| Heliolais erythropterus | NO CHANGE |
DEC |
|
| Hieraaetus ayresii | INC |
INC |
|
| Hieraaetus spilogaster | NO CHANGE |
DEC |
|
| Hippolais pallida | INC |
INC |
|
| Hirundo aethiopica | INC |
INC |
|
| Hirundo fuligula | DEC |
DEC |
|
| Hirundo leucosoma | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Hirundo nigrita | INC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Hirundo preussi | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Hirundo senegalensis | DEC |
DEC |
|
| Hylia prasina | INC |
INC |
|
| Hyliota flavigaster | INC |
INC |
|
| Hyliota violacea | INC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Illadopsis fulvescens | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Illadopsis puveli | NO CHANGE |
INC |
|
| Indicator exilis | INC |
INC |
|
| Indicator indicator | DEC |
DEC |
|
| Indicator minor | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Indicator willcocksi | INC |
INC |
|
| Lagonosticta rara | DEC |
DEC |
|
| Lagonosticta rhodopareia | INC |
INC |
|
| Lagonosticta senegala | NO CHANGE |
DEC |
|
| Lamprotornis chalcurus | NO CHANGE |
DEC |
|
| Lamprotornis chalybaeus | INC |
INC |
|
| Lamprotornis chloropterus | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Lamprotornis pulcher | INC |
INC |
|
| Lamprotornis splendidus | INC |
INC |
|
| Laniarius erythrogaster | NO CHANGE |
INC |
|
| Lanius collaris | INC |
INC |
|
| Lanius gubernator | INC |
INC |
|
| Lonchura bicolor | INC |
INC |
|
| Lonchura cucullata | NO CHANGE |
DEC |
|
| Lonchura fringilloides | INC |
INC |
|
| Lybius bidentatus | INC |
INC |
|
| Lybius vieilloti | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Macheiramphus alcinus | NO CHANGE |
DEC |
|
| Macrodipteryx longipennis | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Malaconotus blanchoti | DEC |
DEC |
|
| Malimbus nitens | INC |
INC |
|
| Melaenornis edolioides | NO CHANGE |
DEC |
|
| Melierax gabar | DEC |
DEC |
|
| Melierax metabates | NO CHANGE |
DEC |
|
| Melocichla mentalis | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Merops hirundineus | DEC |
DEC |
|
| Merops nubicus | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Merops pusillus | NO CHANGE |
DEC |
|
| Mesopicos goertae | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Microparra capensis | INC |
INC |
|
| Mirafra africana | INC |
INC |
|
| Mirafra albicauda | INC |
INC |
|
| Mirafra cantillans | INC |
INC |
|
| Muscicapa caerulescens | INC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Muscicapa gambagae | DEC |
DEC |
|
| Myioparus plumbeus | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Myrmecocichla aethiops | NO CHANGE |
INC |
|
| Myrmecocichla albifrons | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Necrosyrtes monachus | DEC |
DEC |
|
| Nectarinia adelberti | INC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Nectarinia chloropygia | INC |
INC |
|
| Nectarinia coccinigaster | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Nectarinia johannae | INC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Nectarinia olivacea | INC |
INC |
|
| Nectarinia pulchella | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Nectarinia superba | INC |
INC |
|
| Nectarinia venusta | INC |
INC |
|
| Nectarinia verticalis | INC |
INC |
|
| Neotis denhami | NO CHANGE |
DEC |
|
| Nesocharis capistrata | INC |
INC |
|
| Nicator chloris | INC |
INC |
|
| Nigrita bicolor | INC |
INC |
|
| Nigrita fusconotus | INC |
INC |
|
| Nilaus afer | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Numida meleagris | DEC |
DEC |
|
| Oena capensis | INC |
INC |
|
| Oenanthe heuglini | INC |
INC |
|
| Onychognathus morio | NO CHANGE |
INC |
|
| Oriolus brachyrhynchus | INC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Ortyxelos meiffrenii | INC |
INC |
|
| Otus leucotis | DEC |
DEC |
|
| Otus senegalensis | NO CHANGE |
DEC |
|
| Pachycoccyx audeberti | INC |
INC |
|
| Passer luteus | INC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Pelecanus rufescens | INC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Petronia pyrgita | INC |
INC |
|
| Phoenicopterus roseus | INC |
INC |
|
| Phyllanthus atripennis | INC |
INC |
|
| Plegadis falcinellus | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Ploceus melanocephalus | INC |
INC |
|
| Ploceus nigerrimus | INC |
INC |
|
| Ploceus nigricollis | INC |
INC |
|
| Ploceus superciliosus | INC |
INC |
|
| Ploceus vitellinus | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Pogoniulus atroflavus | INC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Pogoniulus bilineatus | INC |
INC |
|
| Pogoniulus chrysoconus | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Pogoniulus scolopaceus | INC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Polemaetus bellicosus | NO CHANGE |
DEC |
|
| Prinia subflava | NO CHANGE |
DEC |
|
| Prionops caniceps | INC |
INC |
|
| Prionops plumatus | NO CHANGE |
DEC |
|
| Prodotiscus regulus | INC |
INC |
|
| Psalidoprocne pristoptera | INC |
INC |
|
| Pseudhirundo griseopyga | INC |
INC |
|
| Pterocles lichtensteinii | INC |
INC |
|
| Ptilopachus petrosus | DEC |
DEC |
|
| Ptilostomus afer | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Pyrrhurus scandens | INC |
INC |
|
| Pytilia hypogrammica | NO CHANGE |
DEC |
|
| Pytilia melba | INC |
INC |
|
| Quelea quelea | INC |
INC |
|
| Rallus caerulescens | INC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Rhinopomastus aterrimus | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Rhinoptilus chalcopterus | DEC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Sagittarius serpentarius | INC |
INC |
|
| Sarothrura pulchra | INC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Schoenicola brevirostris | INC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Scotopelia bouvieri | INC |
INC |
|
| Scotopelia peli | INC |
INC |
|
| Serinus gularis | DEC |
DEC |
|
| Serinus leucopygius | INC |
INC |
|
| Serinus mozambicus | DEC |
DEC |
|
| Spermophaga haematina | INC |
INC |
|
| Sporopipes frontalis | INC |
INC |
|
| Stephanoaetus coronatus | INC |
INC |
|
| Stigmatopelia senegalensis | INC |
INC |
|
| Streptopelia decipiens | INC |
INC |
|
| Streptopelia roseogrisea | INC |
INC |
|
| Streptopelia vinacea | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Strix woodfordii | INC |
INC |
|
| Struthio camelus | INC |
INC |
|
| Sylvietta brachyura | NO CHANGE |
DEC |
|
| Sylvietta denti | NO CHANGE |
INC |
|
| Sylvietta virens | INC |
INC |
|
| Tchagra minutus | INC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Tchagra senegalus | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Telacanthura ussheri | DEC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Telophorus multicolor | INC |
INC |
|
| Telophorus sulfureopectus | DEC |
DEC |
|
| Terathopius ecaudatus | NO CHANGE |
DEC |
|
| Thalassornis leuconotus | INC |
INC |
|
| Thescelocichla leucopleura | INC |
INC |
|
| Tigriornis leucolopha | INC |
INC |
|
| Tockus fasciatus | NO CHANGE |
DEC |
|
| Tockus nasutus | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Torgos tracheliotos | INC |
INC |
|
| Trachyphonus purpuratus | INC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Tricholaema hirsuta | INC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Turdoides plebejus | NO CHANGE |
DEC |
|
| Turdoides reinwardii | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Turtur abyssinicus | INC |
INC |
|
| Turtur tympanistria | INC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Uraeginthus bengalus | NO CHANGE |
DEC |
|
| Urocolius macrourus | NO CHANGE |
INC |
|
| Vanellus crassirostris | NO CHANGE |
INC |
|
| Vanellus lugubris | INC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Vanellus spinosus | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Vanellus tectus | INC |
INC |
|
| Vidua chalybeata | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Vidua interjecta | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Vidua paradisaea | INC |
INC |
|
| Vidua raricola | INC |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Vidua togoensis | NO CHANGE |
NO CHANGE |
|
| Vidua wilsoni | NO CHANGE |
DEC |
|
| Zosterops senegalensis | NO CHANGE |
DEC |
The full description of the methodology used for this assessment can be downloaded here: Species Distribution Model
